2018 NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that seat or content down loading time to good use?
Since Week 9, we vaporized a THIRTEEN game deficit to pass both the Boston Globe's Ben Volin @ 134-112-10, and CBS's Jamey Eisenberg @ 139-110-7. No rest for the wicked...
After Week 15, we discovered that we were NINE back of someone hidden under the MSM sand (much like moi). After 17 weeks and 256 games, as per the Miami Herald, Greg Cote is where we were this time, last year @ 145-104-7.
Last year, we finished the regular (146-103-7) and post season (151-108-8) as NUMBER ONE picking all NFL games against the spread (ATS) on the Web. Where in the world are we now?
After hitting 10-6 this week, we seem to have recaptured our "eye of the tiger". At 140-114-2, we have cut a NINE game deficit to Mr. Cote down to FIVE, with only ELEVEN playoff games remaining.
Moving West... following up on last weeks "thrill of the fight and we must rise up to the challenge", this weeks theme?
Apropos we think. Shaking our head in utter disbelief... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday.... or
Getting strong now. Won't be long now. Gonna fly now. Flying high now. Gonna fly, fly, fly
BYES: NO, LAR, KC, NE
Sworn to the number, loyal to none.... In 2017, the regular season had favs up 132-113-8. Last years Wildcard Weekend saw big spreads CAR @ NO -6.5; BUF @ JAX -8.5; ATL @ LAR -6.5 and TEN @ KC -8.5. None of the home favs covered, and the latter lost outright.
In the playoffs, not only the Eagles donned dog masks as the mutts ran wild howling @ 10-1 (the lone fav to cover was NE) to finish @ 133-123-8, for a five game differential on the year, and almost balancing the books. Public money went 4-7 winning on ATL +6.5 @ LAR; TEN @ NE -13.5; NO +5.5 @ MIN and the SB with PHI +4.5 vs NE.
In contrast... Year of The Dog? 2018 YTD dogs are up 133-115-8, @ home 45-41-2, and a stellar 88-74-6 away. In this years playoffs, will we see another balancing of the books with a tilt to favs? Food for thought.
And now a moment of coaching Zen... flashback to week 4, the game is tied, its 4th and 4 from your 43 yard line with 27 seconds to play in OT, what's the call Coach?
Had the coach not lost his mind and punted rather than going on 4th down and failing, which set up the Texans winning FG, that game would have ended in a tie.
Thus, the New Reich Luck-y Horseshoes would have won the division and been hosting this Saturday's opening playoff game. But that's why those coaches get the big bucks? Moving West...
Saturday 16:35 EST ESPN O/U 48.5
IND @ HOU
Of Note: Since 2013 @HOU 1-5 SU vs IND; TOM HOU +13, IND +2 ; HOU 28PassD 260ypg vs IND 6PassO 278ypg
Had they not fumbled in their own EZ, resulting in a HOU D TD, and the coach not lost his mind in OT, the Horseshoes would have swept or not lost to the Tex-Anns. In those two games, IND 978 total yds, only rushing for 91yds on 40 atts.
All while sacking Watson 12 times and giving up Luck only 6 times. So Luck knows how to pick the Tex-Ann's secondary apart, which due to a lack of QB pressures, has been excessively porous of late. Speaking of which... how to protect your QB and secondary?
Last 5 games, the Texans collected only 6 sacks while allowing 25, the Colts grabbed 11 and gave up only 7. YTD HOU Watson sacked 62 times, worst in the NFL. IND Luck sacked 18 times, best in the NFL and his O-line is pancaking people of late.
Trending last six games:
RZ D: HOU 51% 8.4ypp #27; IND 26% 4.3ypp #6
RZ O: HOU 41% #25; IND 52% #6
Any hope for the Tex-Watt-sons? In the last 6 games, HOU while collecting 12 take aways has hung onto the rock with only 2 TO's, 1 of those special teams. Meanwhile, IND have collected 7, while committing 10 TO's. He who wins the battle with Uncle TOM usually wins and can keep it close.
Centered Up? Colts starting center Ryan Kelly who was absent weeks 12, 13, 14 and 17, or four of the last six, is healthy and slated to start. And just when Texan fans had hope... upon further review, since 2002, QB's making their first playoff start such as Mr. Watson: 14-29 SU
This was the 2nd easiest game to pick. IND opened early as a +2.5 dog, and the line moved to PK, and back to +1.5. With the caveat, if the New Reich Luck-y Horseshoes perform as of late, and hold onto the rock, they should win going away to visit the Ma-Homes Chefs.
Pick: IND +2.5 LOCK
Saturday 20:15 EST FOX O/U 43.5
SEA @ DAL
Of Note: Since 2012 Jerry's Kidz 1-4 SU, 0-2 @ Big D vs SEA. TOM Squawks +15; Pokes +3.
In Week 3 up at the hags nest, Son of Buzzi outrushed the Squawks 166-113 on only 19 atts. All Pro Tackle Tyron Smith and Guard Zack Martin played 100% of the snaps. However, inability to close 2FG's, 5 sacks and 3 TO's cost Jerry Kidz in a 24-13 L.
YTD, the home and away offenses are equal, on the defensive side, the Pokes hold a 40yd per game run D advantage, and they might need to find it again. The Sea Hags have been held sub 150yds rushing only once in their last 13 games.
Trending last six games:
RZ D DAL 58% 8.6 ypp #30; SEA 50% 6.3 ypp #25
RZ O DAL 33% #31; SEA 41% #24
Rushing DAL 4 ypc, 2 TD; SEA 4.8 ypc, 8 TD
TO's: SEA 2, DAL 7; Takeaways: SEA 10; DAL 10
Both red zone D's have struggled of late, the Pokes more so. On the other side the Pokes also struggle to convert while the Seahags excel YTD: RZ O DAL #29, SEA #8. This inability to close is accentuated by 3rd down stops. Jerry Kidz are as matador like as the Seahags are formidable: 3DC D DAL 42% #27; SEA 35% #5.
In order for Son of Buzzi to run and protect their ham QB DAK, the Pokes O-line needs to show up. YTD 56 sacks allowed, 2nd worst in the NFL. Last five games DAL avg 97yds rushing, SEA double down 188yds.
In winning last weeks meaningless game, the DAK ham and Poke D played the whole game, and won on a last second miracle 4th and 15 TD. All of this to forego a week of rest, help the Military Insects draft position, while leaving several starters tired and knicked? Any hope for Jerry's Kidz?
Pokes average 4.5 ypc, while allowing only 3.8 #5, so they can stuff the run. Squawks avg 4.8 ypc #4 in the league, while allowing 4.9 ypc #30, so they can be gashed on the ground as Zeke did in Week 3. When the SEA run gets stuffed, their QB can take off running and is known to make big throwing plays downfield.
Along those lines, last week vs rival #1 draft pick Desert Rose-n Finches (4-2SU @ SEA), Wilson was sacked 6 times as the Squawks gave up 18 points on special teams and D plays. Are there O-line problems? Starting O-line Guards Sweezey, Fluker, and Tackle Brown are probable, as are Pokes Smith and Martin, all rested but nicked.
Unlike Week 3 stud Squawk LB K.J. Wright and Poke WR Amari Cooper will be playing this time. Since the injury to LB Kendricks, Wright bolsters SEA pass rush and cover at LB. Squawk Legion of Boom DB Earl Thomas absence and the addition of Cooper gives the Pokes a pass boost and vertical stretch which should help the ground game.
Last three weeks, Poke D @IND 370 total 178 rush; TB 383 total; @NYG 441 total 143 rush. Poke rushing an anemic 112, 80 and 51 yds, vs two of the worst run D's, the latter sans Zeke. Jerry's Kidz are 7-1 @ Jerry World, the Squawks a mere mortal 4-4 out of nest.
If the Pokes can stuff the Squawk ground attack, gash them on the ground, hold the rock and close, they should win. If both run games get stuffed, then the better QB is Chuck Noland's best friend. Can one trust Jerry's Kidz to show up and git er done without getting Garreted in their own corral? Hubba, hubba who do you trust?
This game has the largest line swing and was the toughest to pick. The line opened DAL -3, moved to SEA -1.5 at some books, and back to DAL -2.5. Would that -1.5 be a small enough price to risk for a proven, usually smarter SB winning coach? Yup. When the chips are down, does one trust Noland's best friend more? Yup. Taking +3 to open? All day long.
Pick: SEA +3
Sunday 13:05 EST CBS O/U 41.5
LAC @ BAL
Last time out in Week 16, the Black Birds out ran the Bolts silly 159-51 and then sat on them 361-198 total. 8 flags = 69 yds, 4 sacks, 3TO's including a fumble ret TD, and int which set up a short field TD, all cost LA a home L and the #1 seed. On the other hand, the Birds missed 2 FG's, TO on downs at the 2, and fumbled to set up a short field for the Bolts only TD.
Trending last six games:
RZ O BAL 32% #32; LAC 52% #7
RZ D BAL 28% 5.5 yds #2; LAC 43% 7.5 yds #16
3DC BAL O #6 D #3; LAC O #16 D #18
The Running Black Birds have problems closing, whereas the Hey-LA My Bosa's Back Bolts can normally convert in the RZ. Said task is tougher vs a 3rd down D which gets teams off the field, and a 3rd down O which keeps other defenses on the field, like the Birds.
Since their Week 10 bye over 7 games... living up to their nickname, the Running Black Birds avg 230 yds rushing, while the D has allowed only 61 yds per game. Last 3 games, TO's 4, takeaways 7. The Bolts? 9 TO's, takeaways 5.
The Ma-Homes Chefs, only one of two teams to get over 210 passing yds vs BAL, got lucky with a 4th and forever miracle play to force OT. Last week, the Mayfield Browns managed 376 yds passing and would have won on a last second FG, had they not made 3 TO's.
Birds in nest 6-2 with L's to PIT and NO. But those were prior to the bye and Jackson's running resurrection. Can Ol' Man Rivers put up over 210 yds passing vs this D without making his signature careless TO's?
Two weeks ago in LA, the 198 total yds 147 passing were season lows. Has anything changed other than the game location and perhaps weather? Nope. So why would anyone expect the result to be different? Any hope for these road Bolts?
The Chargers were drained after the Chefs game. In fact, dead tired after two 2nd half double digit comebacks on the road in the 3 weeks prior to the Birds squatting on them in a make shift soccer stadium.
The other six Raven post bye opponents were Clueless Lewis Gals, Retread Chucky Traitors, Praying Birds, Ma-Homes Chefs, Winny Bucs and the Mayfield Browns. What do these teams have in common? Defenseless.
The Bolts are a run pass balanced team on both sides of the ball with an a top 10 offense and defense. Upon further review, in Week 16, one Bird TD off a fumble return, and another set up on a short field by a careless pick.
This means, the Bolt D held the Birds to 10 pts, and Action Jackson 39 yds on 13 carries, 3.0ypc with a 31% success ratio. Dixon, Jackson and Edwards combined for 12 successes in 35 atts. or 34%. A total of three carries netted 89 of 159 rushing yds.
A secret weapon? In Week 16, Bolt TE's Gates and Green targeted 7 times for 5 receptions and 33 yds. Combined YTD 72 targets, 34 rec, 345 yds. In 2017 starting TE Hunter Henry 62 targets, 45 rec, 579 yds.
Henry has not played this year due to a preseason ACL injury. The Hunter has been practicing with the 1st team and is slated to play. The Ravens D has a weakness, covering TE's ranked #24 in yds with 109.2 passer rating.
UPDATE: 01/06 8AM EST Hunter Henry has NOT been activated from IR and will NOT play.
After facing Action Jackson once, could a lack of exhaustion, time to prepare and additional weapons make a difference? Bolts Away 7-1 with W's @ SEA; PIT and KC, as they play better in real football venues.
Venerable Phil Rivers is looking for a last grab at the ring vs a rookie QB. Again we refer to virgin playoff QB's since 2002 @ 14-29 SU. Further, since the 1970 merger, rookie QB's in the playoffs when facing a veteran, are 6-16 SU. Action Jackson has fumbled 12 times in 7 games.
This was the 2nd toughest game to pick. To answer our earlier question regarding expectations for a different result, the Bolts must hold the rock, limit big plays and force Jackson to pass. The line opened at BAL -3, went down to -1 and came back to -3. With the Bolts being the heaviest bet side this week, apparently many think the result will be different. Going out on a limb, so do we.
Contrarian Pick: LAC +3
Sunday 16:40 EST NBC O/U 41.5
PHI @ CHI
Of Note: PHI 26ARunO 97ypg vs CHI 1HRunD 67ypg; CHI 16HPassO 238ypg vs PHI 31APassD 305ypg. TOM CHI #3 +12; PHI #25 -6.
Trending last six weeks:
RZ O PHI 51% #10; CHI 54% #4
RZ D PHI 40% 6.2yds #11; CHI 41% 4.1yds #12
Overall D PHI 46% 5.6yds #14; CHI 45% 4.1yds #3
The Philly Foles come in on a 5-1 streak, lone loss in OT @ Jerry Kidz. Over those six games the avg run D 90yds; pass D 257 yds. Opponents NYA: NYG 16, WAS 29, @DAL 22, @LAR 3, HOU 12, @WAS 29
The number is the teams rank for NYA net yard per attempt passing. Other than the Rams who fell behind, committed 3 TO's, abandoned the run and threw for 325yds, none of those teams can pass nor have a healthy O-line. When your opponent can't pass, or protect the QB and pound the rock, you can sell out in attempting to mask a poor run D. Exception, the Pokes who gashed the Fleagles D for 142yds.
Last four weeks, CHI avg run D 62yds; pass D 182yds. Opponents Pass NYA: LAR 3, GB 20, @SF 11, @MIN 18. The Mack Daddy Paddingtons crushed the pass along with the ground attack. O-lines Eagle T - Peters; C - Kelce, G - Seumalo all knicked. Bear right G - Kyle Long is back.
The Philly Foles O 3.9 YPA rushing is #30 and 6.7 NYA passing is #10. So they WILL have to pass right into the teeth of the NFL's #1 pass and run defense. Interestingly enough that defense could have rested in Week 17, but opted to eliminate their Norsemen Cousins so that the Philly Foles could back into the playoffs. Wonder why? Is there hope for the Philly Foles?
PHI Pass D #30, Run D #7 in yds and for a good reason, their secondary is decimated. So why bother to run when you can bomb them to death? Da Bears 4.1 YPA rushing is #27 and 6.5 NYA passing is #14. So maybe the Cheese Steaks can sell out on the run and force Trubisky (a virgin playoff QB) to pass and create TO's?
With the #21 YPA run D, the Philly Cheese suffer from the same condition as the Norsemen. Whom the Bears gashed for 148 and 169 yds rushing, while Trubisky only had to pass for 160 and 163 yds. Despite committing three TO's in one of those games, the Bears easily swept the Vikes.
Da Bears are on a 9-1 streak, exception being an OT loss in the rain @NYG with a scrub backup. Some Bears might remember the 2017 Week 10 31-3 strafing at the hands of the defending SB champs. Over a year later, neither team bares any resemblance to its former self.
Since the Philly Foles backed in, what's all this MSM waxing nostalgic? Aside from a SB MVP QB going against a virgin playoff QB, and the dog masks which cannot disguise a lack of defense and running game, the Philly Foles pull up short in too many areas. The line opened at CHI -4.5 and has gone to -7 at some books for good reason.
This is the largest spread of all four games this week, and the easiest to pick. IMHO, like a tired old rooster getting run over by a MACK truck, this game has the potential to be ugly. In either the form of a low scoring crawl, or a humiliating blowout. The question is will the visitors out score the Mack Daddy Paddington's D?
Pick: CHI -4.5 LOCK
Since Week 9, we vaporized a THIRTEEN game deficit to pass both the Boston Globe's Ben Volin @ 134-112-10, and CBS's Jamey Eisenberg @ 139-110-7. No rest for the wicked...
After Week 15, we discovered that we were NINE back of someone hidden under the MSM sand (much like moi). After 17 weeks and 256 games, as per the Miami Herald, Greg Cote is where we were this time, last year @ 145-104-7.
Last year, we finished the regular (146-103-7) and post season (151-108-8) as NUMBER ONE picking all NFL games against the spread (ATS) on the Web. Where in the world are we now?
After hitting 10-6 this week, we seem to have recaptured our "eye of the tiger". At 140-114-2, we have cut a NINE game deficit to Mr. Cote down to FIVE, with only ELEVEN playoff games remaining.
Moving West... following up on last weeks "thrill of the fight and we must rise up to the challenge", this weeks theme?
Apropos we think. Shaking our head in utter disbelief... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday.... or
Getting strong now. Won't be long now. Gonna fly now. Flying high now. Gonna fly, fly, fly
BYES: NO, LAR, KC, NE
Sworn to the number, loyal to none.... In 2017, the regular season had favs up 132-113-8. Last years Wildcard Weekend saw big spreads CAR @ NO -6.5; BUF @ JAX -8.5; ATL @ LAR -6.5 and TEN @ KC -8.5. None of the home favs covered, and the latter lost outright.
In the playoffs, not only the Eagles donned dog masks as the mutts ran wild howling @ 10-1 (the lone fav to cover was NE) to finish @ 133-123-8, for a five game differential on the year, and almost balancing the books. Public money went 4-7 winning on ATL +6.5 @ LAR; TEN @ NE -13.5; NO +5.5 @ MIN and the SB with PHI +4.5 vs NE.
In contrast... Year of The Dog? 2018 YTD dogs are up 133-115-8, @ home 45-41-2, and a stellar 88-74-6 away. In this years playoffs, will we see another balancing of the books with a tilt to favs? Food for thought.
And now a moment of coaching Zen... flashback to week 4, the game is tied, its 4th and 4 from your 43 yard line with 27 seconds to play in OT, what's the call Coach?
Had the coach not lost his mind and punted rather than going on 4th down and failing, which set up the Texans winning FG, that game would have ended in a tie.
Thus, the New Reich Luck-y Horseshoes would have won the division and been hosting this Saturday's opening playoff game. But that's why those coaches get the big bucks? Moving West...
Saturday 16:35 EST ESPN O/U 48.5
IND @ HOU
Of Note: Since 2013 @HOU 1-5 SU vs IND; TOM HOU +13, IND +2 ; HOU 28PassD 260ypg vs IND 6PassO 278ypg
Had they not fumbled in their own EZ, resulting in a HOU D TD, and the coach not lost his mind in OT, the Horseshoes would have swept or not lost to the Tex-Anns. In those two games, IND 978 total yds, only rushing for 91yds on 40 atts.
All while sacking Watson 12 times and giving up Luck only 6 times. So Luck knows how to pick the Tex-Ann's secondary apart, which due to a lack of QB pressures, has been excessively porous of late. Speaking of which... how to protect your QB and secondary?
Last 5 games, the Texans collected only 6 sacks while allowing 25, the Colts grabbed 11 and gave up only 7. YTD HOU Watson sacked 62 times, worst in the NFL. IND Luck sacked 18 times, best in the NFL and his O-line is pancaking people of late.
Trending last six games:
RZ D: HOU 51% 8.4ypp #27; IND 26% 4.3ypp #6
RZ O: HOU 41% #25; IND 52% #6
Any hope for the Tex-Watt-sons? In the last 6 games, HOU while collecting 12 take aways has hung onto the rock with only 2 TO's, 1 of those special teams. Meanwhile, IND have collected 7, while committing 10 TO's. He who wins the battle with Uncle TOM usually wins and can keep it close.
Centered Up? Colts starting center Ryan Kelly who was absent weeks 12, 13, 14 and 17, or four of the last six, is healthy and slated to start. And just when Texan fans had hope... upon further review, since 2002, QB's making their first playoff start such as Mr. Watson: 14-29 SU
This was the 2nd easiest game to pick. IND opened early as a +2.5 dog, and the line moved to PK, and back to +1.5. With the caveat, if the New Reich Luck-y Horseshoes perform as of late, and hold onto the rock, they should win going away to visit the Ma-Homes Chefs.
Pick: IND +2.5 LOCK
Saturday 20:15 EST FOX O/U 43.5
SEA @ DAL
Of Note: Since 2012 Jerry's Kidz 1-4 SU, 0-2 @ Big D vs SEA. TOM Squawks +15; Pokes +3.
In Week 3 up at the hags nest, Son of Buzzi outrushed the Squawks 166-113 on only 19 atts. All Pro Tackle Tyron Smith and Guard Zack Martin played 100% of the snaps. However, inability to close 2FG's, 5 sacks and 3 TO's cost Jerry Kidz in a 24-13 L.
YTD, the home and away offenses are equal, on the defensive side, the Pokes hold a 40yd per game run D advantage, and they might need to find it again. The Sea Hags have been held sub 150yds rushing only once in their last 13 games.
Trending last six games:
RZ D DAL 58% 8.6 ypp #30; SEA 50% 6.3 ypp #25
RZ O DAL 33% #31; SEA 41% #24
Rushing DAL 4 ypc, 2 TD; SEA 4.8 ypc, 8 TD
TO's: SEA 2, DAL 7; Takeaways: SEA 10; DAL 10
Both red zone D's have struggled of late, the Pokes more so. On the other side the Pokes also struggle to convert while the Seahags excel YTD: RZ O DAL #29, SEA #8. This inability to close is accentuated by 3rd down stops. Jerry Kidz are as matador like as the Seahags are formidable: 3DC D DAL 42% #27; SEA 35% #5.
In order for Son of Buzzi to run and protect their ham QB DAK, the Pokes O-line needs to show up. YTD 56 sacks allowed, 2nd worst in the NFL. Last five games DAL avg 97yds rushing, SEA double down 188yds.
In winning last weeks meaningless game, the DAK ham and Poke D played the whole game, and won on a last second miracle 4th and 15 TD. All of this to forego a week of rest, help the Military Insects draft position, while leaving several starters tired and knicked? Any hope for Jerry's Kidz?
Pokes average 4.5 ypc, while allowing only 3.8 #5, so they can stuff the run. Squawks avg 4.8 ypc #4 in the league, while allowing 4.9 ypc #30, so they can be gashed on the ground as Zeke did in Week 3. When the SEA run gets stuffed, their QB can take off running and is known to make big throwing plays downfield.
Along those lines, last week vs rival #1 draft pick Desert Rose-n Finches (4-2SU @ SEA), Wilson was sacked 6 times as the Squawks gave up 18 points on special teams and D plays. Are there O-line problems? Starting O-line Guards Sweezey, Fluker, and Tackle Brown are probable, as are Pokes Smith and Martin, all rested but nicked.
Unlike Week 3 stud Squawk LB K.J. Wright and Poke WR Amari Cooper will be playing this time. Since the injury to LB Kendricks, Wright bolsters SEA pass rush and cover at LB. Squawk Legion of Boom DB Earl Thomas absence and the addition of Cooper gives the Pokes a pass boost and vertical stretch which should help the ground game.
Last three weeks, Poke D @IND 370 total 178 rush; TB 383 total; @NYG 441 total 143 rush. Poke rushing an anemic 112, 80 and 51 yds, vs two of the worst run D's, the latter sans Zeke. Jerry's Kidz are 7-1 @ Jerry World, the Squawks a mere mortal 4-4 out of nest.
If the Pokes can stuff the Squawk ground attack, gash them on the ground, hold the rock and close, they should win. If both run games get stuffed, then the better QB is Chuck Noland's best friend. Can one trust Jerry's Kidz to show up and git er done without getting Garreted in their own corral? Hubba, hubba who do you trust?
This game has the largest line swing and was the toughest to pick. The line opened DAL -3, moved to SEA -1.5 at some books, and back to DAL -2.5. Would that -1.5 be a small enough price to risk for a proven, usually smarter SB winning coach? Yup. When the chips are down, does one trust Noland's best friend more? Yup. Taking +3 to open? All day long.
Pick: SEA +3
Sunday 13:05 EST CBS O/U 41.5
LAC @ BAL
Last time out in Week 16, the Black Birds out ran the Bolts silly 159-51 and then sat on them 361-198 total. 8 flags = 69 yds, 4 sacks, 3TO's including a fumble ret TD, and int which set up a short field TD, all cost LA a home L and the #1 seed. On the other hand, the Birds missed 2 FG's, TO on downs at the 2, and fumbled to set up a short field for the Bolts only TD.
Trending last six games:
RZ O BAL 32% #32; LAC 52% #7
RZ D BAL 28% 5.5 yds #2; LAC 43% 7.5 yds #16
3DC BAL O #6 D #3; LAC O #16 D #18
The Running Black Birds have problems closing, whereas the Hey-LA My Bosa's Back Bolts can normally convert in the RZ. Said task is tougher vs a 3rd down D which gets teams off the field, and a 3rd down O which keeps other defenses on the field, like the Birds.
Since their Week 10 bye over 7 games... living up to their nickname, the Running Black Birds avg 230 yds rushing, while the D has allowed only 61 yds per game. Last 3 games, TO's 4, takeaways 7. The Bolts? 9 TO's, takeaways 5.
The Ma-Homes Chefs, only one of two teams to get over 210 passing yds vs BAL, got lucky with a 4th and forever miracle play to force OT. Last week, the Mayfield Browns managed 376 yds passing and would have won on a last second FG, had they not made 3 TO's.
Birds in nest 6-2 with L's to PIT and NO. But those were prior to the bye and Jackson's running resurrection. Can Ol' Man Rivers put up over 210 yds passing vs this D without making his signature careless TO's?
Two weeks ago in LA, the 198 total yds 147 passing were season lows. Has anything changed other than the game location and perhaps weather? Nope. So why would anyone expect the result to be different? Any hope for these road Bolts?
The Chargers were drained after the Chefs game. In fact, dead tired after two 2nd half double digit comebacks on the road in the 3 weeks prior to the Birds squatting on them in a make shift soccer stadium.
The other six Raven post bye opponents were Clueless Lewis Gals, Retread Chucky Traitors, Praying Birds, Ma-Homes Chefs, Winny Bucs and the Mayfield Browns. What do these teams have in common? Defenseless.
The Bolts are a run pass balanced team on both sides of the ball with an a top 10 offense and defense. Upon further review, in Week 16, one Bird TD off a fumble return, and another set up on a short field by a careless pick.
This means, the Bolt D held the Birds to 10 pts, and Action Jackson 39 yds on 13 carries, 3.0ypc with a 31% success ratio. Dixon, Jackson and Edwards combined for 12 successes in 35 atts. or 34%. A total of three carries netted 89 of 159 rushing yds.
A secret weapon? In Week 16, Bolt TE's Gates and Green targeted 7 times for 5 receptions and 33 yds. Combined YTD 72 targets, 34 rec, 345 yds. In 2017 starting TE Hunter Henry 62 targets, 45 rec, 579 yds.
Henry has not played this year due to a preseason ACL injury. The Hunter has been practicing with the 1st team and is slated to play. The Ravens D has a weakness, covering TE's ranked #24 in yds with 109.2 passer rating.
UPDATE: 01/06 8AM EST Hunter Henry has NOT been activated from IR and will NOT play.
After facing Action Jackson once, could a lack of exhaustion, time to prepare and additional weapons make a difference? Bolts Away 7-1 with W's @ SEA; PIT and KC, as they play better in real football venues.
Venerable Phil Rivers is looking for a last grab at the ring vs a rookie QB. Again we refer to virgin playoff QB's since 2002 @ 14-29 SU. Further, since the 1970 merger, rookie QB's in the playoffs when facing a veteran, are 6-16 SU. Action Jackson has fumbled 12 times in 7 games.
This was the 2nd toughest game to pick. To answer our earlier question regarding expectations for a different result, the Bolts must hold the rock, limit big plays and force Jackson to pass. The line opened at BAL -3, went down to -1 and came back to -3. With the Bolts being the heaviest bet side this week, apparently many think the result will be different. Going out on a limb, so do we.
Contrarian Pick: LAC +3
Sunday 16:40 EST NBC O/U 41.5
PHI @ CHI
Of Note: PHI 26ARunO 97ypg vs CHI 1HRunD 67ypg; CHI 16HPassO 238ypg vs PHI 31APassD 305ypg. TOM CHI #3 +12; PHI #25 -6.
Trending last six weeks:
RZ O PHI 51% #10; CHI 54% #4
RZ D PHI 40% 6.2yds #11; CHI 41% 4.1yds #12
Overall D PHI 46% 5.6yds #14; CHI 45% 4.1yds #3
The Philly Foles come in on a 5-1 streak, lone loss in OT @ Jerry Kidz. Over those six games the avg run D 90yds; pass D 257 yds. Opponents NYA: NYG 16, WAS 29, @DAL 22, @LAR 3, HOU 12, @WAS 29
The number is the teams rank for NYA net yard per attempt passing. Other than the Rams who fell behind, committed 3 TO's, abandoned the run and threw for 325yds, none of those teams can pass nor have a healthy O-line. When your opponent can't pass, or protect the QB and pound the rock, you can sell out in attempting to mask a poor run D. Exception, the Pokes who gashed the Fleagles D for 142yds.
Last four weeks, CHI avg run D 62yds; pass D 182yds. Opponents Pass NYA: LAR 3, GB 20, @SF 11, @MIN 18. The Mack Daddy Paddingtons crushed the pass along with the ground attack. O-lines Eagle T - Peters; C - Kelce, G - Seumalo all knicked. Bear right G - Kyle Long is back.
The Philly Foles O 3.9 YPA rushing is #30 and 6.7 NYA passing is #10. So they WILL have to pass right into the teeth of the NFL's #1 pass and run defense. Interestingly enough that defense could have rested in Week 17, but opted to eliminate their Norsemen Cousins so that the Philly Foles could back into the playoffs. Wonder why? Is there hope for the Philly Foles?
PHI Pass D #30, Run D #7 in yds and for a good reason, their secondary is decimated. So why bother to run when you can bomb them to death? Da Bears 4.1 YPA rushing is #27 and 6.5 NYA passing is #14. So maybe the Cheese Steaks can sell out on the run and force Trubisky (a virgin playoff QB) to pass and create TO's?
With the #21 YPA run D, the Philly Cheese suffer from the same condition as the Norsemen. Whom the Bears gashed for 148 and 169 yds rushing, while Trubisky only had to pass for 160 and 163 yds. Despite committing three TO's in one of those games, the Bears easily swept the Vikes.
Since the Philly Foles backed in, what's all this MSM waxing nostalgic? Aside from a SB MVP QB going against a virgin playoff QB, and the dog masks which cannot disguise a lack of defense and running game, the Philly Foles pull up short in too many areas. The line opened at CHI -4.5 and has gone to -7 at some books for good reason.
This is the largest spread of all four games this week, and the easiest to pick. IMHO, like a tired old rooster getting run over by a MACK truck, this game has the potential to be ugly. In either the form of a low scoring crawl, or a humiliating blowout. The question is will the visitors out score the Mack Daddy Paddington's D?
Pick: CHI -4.5 LOCK
Fav H1 R0
Dog H0 R3
Home 1; Road 3
Resources
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 8, 2018, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 2-16.
Weekly "look ahead" lines from the Westgate and FanDuel can be found at The Lines, and a complete list of 2018 look ahead's can be found at the Whale Capper.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
Dog H0 R3
Home 1; Road 3
Resources
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 8, 2018, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 2-16.
Weekly "look ahead" lines from the Westgate and FanDuel can be found at The Lines, and a complete list of 2018 look ahead's can be found at the Whale Capper.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
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