Seasonal Swings: In Place?
"Sharpest downswing now in place. Will be over in 2 weeks (beginning with 2nd seasonal pivot)." 09 Feb 2020 - @Salmo truttaJudging from a cross section of the NQ, SZSE, DAX, NIKKEI, 10 yr yield and DXY: 01/17 through 01/31 was a small dip (NQ -362 = 3.8%) or breather.
Recent Seasonal Pivot #2 History...
2018
Pivot ↑ #2 mid Mar.
From 03/13 - 04/04
Nas futures -907 (Inverted)
2019
Pivot ↑ #2 mid Feb. (2/13/2019) or March
Three weeks late
03/08 - 03/22
Nas futures +605
Good signs?
NQ Futures took a powder 01/24 - 02/03, but along with SP and DJIA have rebounded to new all time highs as of 02/06. NQ made a new high today 02/10.
Bad signs?
NYSE and MID made new all time highs on 01/17, however on a daily basis both appear to be forming what could be a corrective ABC wave down.
Worse sign?
The laggard RUT (still below August 2018 high) dipped 01/17 through 01/31 and appears to have formed a double top (the 2nd top peaking on 01/17).
On a monthly basis, this rejection from what could have been an new all time high appears to be forming into a larger corrective third wave (1-5) down from August 2018.
Worst sign?
WTI started down 01/08 and has plunged 25% since. Of note...
On 02/04 the $50 support line established the week of 06/02/2019 was taken out then hopped back over.
Failure at this level would leave the $42 mark from 12/2018 as the only support above a ride back to $25. Watch $49 closely.
The Nattering One muses...
There is far too much central bank desk support via repo. Over-subscription still occurring over the last 25 operations with...
as our in depth and the ONLY analysis to point this out in the media or blogosphere - a huge bolus of MBS at the core of the problem.
We hope our readers took the time to read the in depth 14 part expose on what really happened in the repo ruckus.
Recommended reading:
Part 1 of The Man With No Name: A Fistful Of Dollars
The 6 Seasonal Inflection Points
Timing Is Everything?
Inflection Introspection?
Inflection Introspection 2020?
Comments