Market Soapbox 04/11/05
DJIA -13 10448; SP500 0 1181; Nasdaq -7 1992; NDX -7 1478.
Resistance: DJIA 10600; SP500 1200; Nasdaq 2025; NDX 1510.
Support: DJIA 10370 ; SP500 1170 ; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1465 .
Positive: energy, biotech, airline, utility, health care, financial, consumer staples, drug, banks
Negative: disk drive, semi, hardware, materials, consumer discretionary, brokerage, telecom svc
Dollar: vs Yen: -0.4000 107.83 ; vs Euro: -0.0045 1.2977.
Bonds: 10-yr note +10 yielding -.040 4.43%;
Gold: XAU -0.55%; $429.00 +0.20. CRB: 304.18 -0.14
Oil: XOI +0.94%, Crude oil $53.50; +$0.18; +0.34%.
52 Week HiLo: DJIA 57/64; Nasdaq 22/86; Amex 15/27.
A/D Volume: DJIA 2/3, Nasdaq 5/8, Amex 2/1.
Volume: DJIA 1.46B, Nasdaq 1.32B
Upcoming Notable reports
TUES: Trade gap, Treasury Budget, Same Store Sales, FOMC.
WEND: Advanced Micro, Apple, Lam Research.
THURS: DowJones, Eaton, Fairchild Semi, Hibernia, MGIC, Pepsi, Rambus, Samsung, Southwest Air, Sun Micro
FRI: Citigroup, GE, Wachovia, Import/Export Prices, TIC Foreign Inflows, Industrial Production.
Crude oil futures broke a five day downturn, +0.34%; Treasurie prices initially went to the downside, but finished higher on the day, lowering rates. Profit taking in the dollar prior to tommorrow's Feb trade gap, estimated $58.4 Billion, some are predicting over $60B, which would be the worst ever. Treasury Budget estimate for -$68B deficit, Feb was -$114B.
These reports may hurt treasuries and could help stocks.The FOMC minutes may convey hawkishness, which could overcome the negative record high trade deficit of $63 billion. Friday’s TICS data might help or hurt the dollar.In any event, any market party will be very short lived.
Despite falling dollar, lower rates & benign oil; gold saw little help and the markets were split tape. Ugly internals kept the market going sideways as it faded into the close on tepid volume. According to COT quarterly data, large investors (ex-long) and the Boys from Bermuda (ex-short) have reversed their positions and gone neutral on the DJIA.
Equity Put/Call ratios on the CBOE ran @ 72.5% from 4/1 - 4/6, then tailed off till today @ 71%. Last time we saw this was a 5 day span 3/16 - 3/22 @ 74.2%, and then we hit the 3/29 low of 1163 SP500. Does this mean we hit a low on Wen? Not this week, and not next week, quarterly reporting will show an average of 50% deacceleration in Y-O-Y EPS growth.
Many traders have taken the week off for last minute tax filing, contributing to tepid volume. These factors and short covering for Fridays options expiration might help the market until at least Wendnesday.
Given the markets weakness, I don't know if it can make it to Max pain levels @ DJIA 10600, SP500 1190, NDX 1480. Thursday or Friday should mark a continuation of the downtrend. Monday the 18th, quarterly reports increase in volume for 3 weeks and Tuesday the 19th, the PPI awaits.
Resistance: DJIA 10600; SP500 1200; Nasdaq 2025; NDX 1510.
Support: DJIA 10370 ; SP500 1170 ; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1465 .
Positive: energy, biotech, airline, utility, health care, financial, consumer staples, drug, banks
Negative: disk drive, semi, hardware, materials, consumer discretionary, brokerage, telecom svc
Dollar: vs Yen: -0.4000 107.83 ; vs Euro: -0.0045 1.2977.
Bonds: 10-yr note +10 yielding -.040 4.43%;
Gold: XAU -0.55%; $429.00 +0.20. CRB: 304.18 -0.14
Oil: XOI +0.94%, Crude oil $53.50; +$0.18; +0.34%.
52 Week HiLo: DJIA 57/64; Nasdaq 22/86; Amex 15/27.
A/D Volume: DJIA 2/3, Nasdaq 5/8, Amex 2/1.
Volume: DJIA 1.46B, Nasdaq 1.32B
Upcoming Notable reports
TUES: Trade gap, Treasury Budget, Same Store Sales, FOMC.
WEND: Advanced Micro, Apple, Lam Research.
THURS: DowJones, Eaton, Fairchild Semi, Hibernia, MGIC, Pepsi, Rambus, Samsung, Southwest Air, Sun Micro
FRI: Citigroup, GE, Wachovia, Import/Export Prices, TIC Foreign Inflows, Industrial Production.
Crude oil futures broke a five day downturn, +0.34%; Treasurie prices initially went to the downside, but finished higher on the day, lowering rates. Profit taking in the dollar prior to tommorrow's Feb trade gap, estimated $58.4 Billion, some are predicting over $60B, which would be the worst ever. Treasury Budget estimate for -$68B deficit, Feb was -$114B.
These reports may hurt treasuries and could help stocks.The FOMC minutes may convey hawkishness, which could overcome the negative record high trade deficit of $63 billion. Friday’s TICS data might help or hurt the dollar.In any event, any market party will be very short lived.
Despite falling dollar, lower rates & benign oil; gold saw little help and the markets were split tape. Ugly internals kept the market going sideways as it faded into the close on tepid volume. According to COT quarterly data, large investors (ex-long) and the Boys from Bermuda (ex-short) have reversed their positions and gone neutral on the DJIA.
Equity Put/Call ratios on the CBOE ran @ 72.5% from 4/1 - 4/6, then tailed off till today @ 71%. Last time we saw this was a 5 day span 3/16 - 3/22 @ 74.2%, and then we hit the 3/29 low of 1163 SP500. Does this mean we hit a low on Wen? Not this week, and not next week, quarterly reporting will show an average of 50% deacceleration in Y-O-Y EPS growth.
Many traders have taken the week off for last minute tax filing, contributing to tepid volume. These factors and short covering for Fridays options expiration might help the market until at least Wendnesday.
Given the markets weakness, I don't know if it can make it to Max pain levels @ DJIA 10600, SP500 1190, NDX 1480. Thursday or Friday should mark a continuation of the downtrend. Monday the 18th, quarterly reports increase in volume for 3 weeks and Tuesday the 19th, the PPI awaits.
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