Market Soapbox 04/13/05
DJIA -125 10279; SP500 -12 1162; Nasdaq -28 1948; NDX -21 1441
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 10000 ; SP500 1150 ; Nasdaq 1900; NDX 1415
Positive: drug
Negative: transport, materials, hardware, semi, financial, utility, brokerage, banks, telecom, industrials
Dollar: vs Yen: +0.7750 108.12 ; vs Euro: +0.0098 1.2817
Bonds: 10-yr note +7 yielding -.030 4.33%;
Gold: XAU -3.27%; $425.80 +0.20 CRB: 299.38 -1.45
Oil: XOI -0.05%, Cushing Crude $51.13; +$0.91; +1.18%
52 Week HiLo: DJIA 28/101; Nasdaq 25/131; Amex 12/40
A/D Volume: DJIA 1/4.5, Nasdaq 1/4, Amex 1/25
Volume: DJIA 2.27B, Nasdaq 1.87B
Upcoming Notable reports
FRI: Import/Export Prices, TIC Foreign Inflows, Industrial Production (consensus +0.3%), NY Empire State Index (consensus 18.0), Capacity Utilization (consensus 79.6%), Consumer Sentiment (consensus 91.7), Citigroup, GE, Wachovia.
MON: Quarterly reports start in volume for 3 weeks
TUES: Producer Price Index
Two words describe today's market action, WITH AUTHORITY. DJIA hit a 5 month low, SP500 new low since 3/29, Nasdaq and NDX new yearly low, off +10% in 2005, lowest since October 04.
Most important, the transports DJTA, fell off a cliff for the 2nd straight day, -3.02%. We have warned in the past, watch retailers RTH and transport DJTA. Retail has already fallen, transports are, tech is caving in, the industrials will follow.
All 10 sectors in the red, Materials -2.8% and Steel -3.6 lost big.
Short covering helped lift oil at the close +1.8%, since the April 4 high: oil prices -13.0%, energy sector - 6.1%. Oil, energy and commodities, these are the legs that have held the market up, they are in the process of a parabolic retracement.
Weekly jobless claims -10K @330K and Feb bus. inventories +0.5% checked in exactly as expected down from +0.9 in Jan. Today's $9 bln 10 year TIPS auction had indirect bidder participation of 42.4%, close to avg of 44.3%.
The dollar hit a two-year high vs. euro, a monthly high vs. yen after the ECB said there are "no clear signs" of accelerated growth in the euro region. Contra action: Gold and bonds had little help today, but rose with the dollar, driving interest rates down.
Love me, four times, I’m goin’ away...
The SP500 hit 1163 on 3/29 and 3 times since, has come back down to 1170. The NDX hit 1458 on 3/29, and 3 times since has come back down to 1460. Today, the fourth time, they penetrated these levels.
The market could roll down from now till at least the 20th. In the next 3 trading days, the market will decide which direction it is going. The key to watch is the SP500, it closed below 1163 today, should this repeat in the next 3 days, the downtrend will continue in the near term, to last years Oct low at a minimum.
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 10000 ; SP500 1150 ; Nasdaq 1900; NDX 1415
Positive: drug
Negative: transport, materials, hardware, semi, financial, utility, brokerage, banks, telecom, industrials
Dollar: vs Yen: +0.7750 108.12 ; vs Euro: +0.0098 1.2817
Bonds: 10-yr note +7 yielding -.030 4.33%;
Gold: XAU -3.27%; $425.80 +0.20 CRB: 299.38 -1.45
Oil: XOI -0.05%, Cushing Crude $51.13; +$0.91; +1.18%
52 Week HiLo: DJIA 28/101; Nasdaq 25/131; Amex 12/40
A/D Volume: DJIA 1/4.5, Nasdaq 1/4, Amex 1/25
Volume: DJIA 2.27B, Nasdaq 1.87B
Upcoming Notable reports
FRI: Import/Export Prices, TIC Foreign Inflows, Industrial Production (consensus +0.3%), NY Empire State Index (consensus 18.0), Capacity Utilization (consensus 79.6%), Consumer Sentiment (consensus 91.7), Citigroup, GE, Wachovia.
MON: Quarterly reports start in volume for 3 weeks
TUES: Producer Price Index
Two words describe today's market action, WITH AUTHORITY. DJIA hit a 5 month low, SP500 new low since 3/29, Nasdaq and NDX new yearly low, off +10% in 2005, lowest since October 04.
Most important, the transports DJTA, fell off a cliff for the 2nd straight day, -3.02%. We have warned in the past, watch retailers RTH and transport DJTA. Retail has already fallen, transports are, tech is caving in, the industrials will follow.
All 10 sectors in the red, Materials -2.8% and Steel -3.6 lost big.
Short covering helped lift oil at the close +1.8%, since the April 4 high: oil prices -13.0%, energy sector - 6.1%. Oil, energy and commodities, these are the legs that have held the market up, they are in the process of a parabolic retracement.
Weekly jobless claims -10K @330K and Feb bus. inventories +0.5% checked in exactly as expected down from +0.9 in Jan. Today's $9 bln 10 year TIPS auction had indirect bidder participation of 42.4%, close to avg of 44.3%.
The dollar hit a two-year high vs. euro, a monthly high vs. yen after the ECB said there are "no clear signs" of accelerated growth in the euro region. Contra action: Gold and bonds had little help today, but rose with the dollar, driving interest rates down.
Love me, four times, I’m goin’ away...
The SP500 hit 1163 on 3/29 and 3 times since, has come back down to 1170. The NDX hit 1458 on 3/29, and 3 times since has come back down to 1460. Today, the fourth time, they penetrated these levels.
The market could roll down from now till at least the 20th. In the next 3 trading days, the market will decide which direction it is going. The key to watch is the SP500, it closed below 1163 today, should this repeat in the next 3 days, the downtrend will continue in the near term, to last years Oct low at a minimum.
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