Market Soapbox 04/25/05
DJIA+85 10242;SP500+10 1162;Nasdaq+19 1950;NDX+16 1437
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: energy, financial, tech, materials, telecom, industrials, utility, retail, hardware, network, brokers, homebuilding
Negative: autos, drug
Dollar: vs Yen: -0.3350 105.6700 ; vs Euro: +0.0070 1.2994
Bonds: 10-yr note -1 ticks yielding +.004 4.25%
Gold: XAU +0.21%; $436.20 +0.40 CRB: 308.68 +1.39
Oil: XOI +1.38%, Cushing Crude $52.07; -$2.32; -4.27%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 54/37; Nasdaq 38/60; Amex 17/21
A/D Volume: NYSE 3/1, Nasdaq 2/1, Amex 4/1
Volume: NYSE 1.65B, Nasdaq 1.38B
Upcoming Notable reports:
TUE: New Home Sales
WEN: Durable Goods, EIA
THU: GDP, Jobless
FRI: Personal Income
European & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +0.25%) were up. Dollar split vs. Yen/Euro, gold, oil & commodities up. Bonds flat Contra action: None
All 10 sectors up. Existing home sales + 1.0% 6.89M (est. 6.80M) 3rd highest level ever. But sales have flattened over the last 6 months. PHLX Housing Sector Index +2.2%; off 10% from early March high. Oil after + 6.4% last week, off 4% today.
Today's Sooey!! awards go to Piper Jaffray (CIEN) Ciena +5.25%; negative EPS 9 straight Qtrs. Smith Barney Citigroup (MU) Micron Tech +1.8%; - 26% QOQ EPS growth. Adam Harkness (ELX) Emulex +3%: -6% QOQ EPS & YOY EPS negative 24 months running, until today. Pity the fools who bought into these unsavory truffles.
The market had a decent day on low volume, gapping up then heading sideways waving a pennant flag. Internals and action were non committal. Lots of M&A action, this is usually the last stage before an economic downturn.
I have noticed that the reporting services use whichever oil number (IPE, Brent, NYMEX, Cushing) has had the largest percentage move. In an effort to filter out the media sensationalism, I am sticking with Cushing price movements.
Last week the indices whipsawed and attempted to cover up gap downs created on 04/15. On 4/21 the NDX covered up his @1441 Today, the SP500 covered his @ 1162. This leaves the DJIA to cover his @ 10278.75. Lets see if we gap up tommorrow just enough to squeeze him through the gap.
I suspect tommorrow or Wen may be a consolidation day. Perhaps we may have another Thursday or Friday as well. This schizophrenic action is not a good thing.
The best thing to do is wait for some confirmation days: closing above resistance or below support for at least 2 days, with high volume movement that shows conviction.
The up moves have to be with conviction and follow through. We are not seeing that. The downtrend remains intact. I suspect if another 2 or 3 sideways or net zero effect days occur and the DJIA seals up his gap, we may roll down off the step again. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: energy, financial, tech, materials, telecom, industrials, utility, retail, hardware, network, brokers, homebuilding
Negative: autos, drug
Dollar: vs Yen: -0.3350 105.6700 ; vs Euro: +0.0070 1.2994
Bonds: 10-yr note -1 ticks yielding +.004 4.25%
Gold: XAU +0.21%; $436.20 +0.40 CRB: 308.68 +1.39
Oil: XOI +1.38%, Cushing Crude $52.07; -$2.32; -4.27%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 54/37; Nasdaq 38/60; Amex 17/21
A/D Volume: NYSE 3/1, Nasdaq 2/1, Amex 4/1
Volume: NYSE 1.65B, Nasdaq 1.38B
Upcoming Notable reports:
TUE: New Home Sales
WEN: Durable Goods, EIA
THU: GDP, Jobless
FRI: Personal Income
European & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +0.25%) were up. Dollar split vs. Yen/Euro, gold, oil & commodities up. Bonds flat Contra action: None
All 10 sectors up. Existing home sales + 1.0% 6.89M (est. 6.80M) 3rd highest level ever. But sales have flattened over the last 6 months. PHLX Housing Sector Index +2.2%; off 10% from early March high. Oil after + 6.4% last week, off 4% today.
Today's Sooey!! awards go to Piper Jaffray (CIEN) Ciena +5.25%; negative EPS 9 straight Qtrs. Smith Barney Citigroup (MU) Micron Tech +1.8%; - 26% QOQ EPS growth. Adam Harkness (ELX) Emulex +3%: -6% QOQ EPS & YOY EPS negative 24 months running, until today. Pity the fools who bought into these unsavory truffles.
The market had a decent day on low volume, gapping up then heading sideways waving a pennant flag. Internals and action were non committal. Lots of M&A action, this is usually the last stage before an economic downturn.
I have noticed that the reporting services use whichever oil number (IPE, Brent, NYMEX, Cushing) has had the largest percentage move. In an effort to filter out the media sensationalism, I am sticking with Cushing price movements.
Last week the indices whipsawed and attempted to cover up gap downs created on 04/15. On 4/21 the NDX covered up his @1441 Today, the SP500 covered his @ 1162. This leaves the DJIA to cover his @ 10278.75. Lets see if we gap up tommorrow just enough to squeeze him through the gap.
I suspect tommorrow or Wen may be a consolidation day. Perhaps we may have another Thursday or Friday as well. This schizophrenic action is not a good thing.
The best thing to do is wait for some confirmation days: closing above resistance or below support for at least 2 days, with high volume movement that shows conviction.
The up moves have to be with conviction and follow through. We are not seeing that. The downtrend remains intact. I suspect if another 2 or 3 sideways or net zero effect days occur and the DJIA seals up his gap, we may roll down off the step again. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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