Market Soapbox 04/28/05
DJIA-128 10070;SP500-13 1143;Nasdaq-26 1904;NDX-14 1409
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: Drug 0.2%
Negative: Everything
Dollar: vs Yen: +0.1850 106.0550 ; vs Euro: +0.0036 1.2894
Bonds: 10-yr note +18 ticks yielding -.071 4.15%
Gold: XAU -1.70%; $432.40 -1.70 CRB: 304.40 -1.48
Oil: XOI -0.95%, Cushing Crude $52.60; +$0.16; +0.31%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 51/143; Nasdaq 38/236; Amex 19/41
A/D Volume: NYSE 374/1760, Nasdaq 379/1481, Amex 30/213
Volume: NYSE 2.14B, Nasdaq 1.87B
Note: For GOLD, the difference between yesterday and todays close on the New York market will be used hence forth.
Upcoming Notable reports:
FRI: MoM Change; Personal Income (Feb 0.3%, est 0.4%), Consumer Spending (Feb 0.3%, est 0.5%);Employment Cost Index (est +1.0%); Michigan Consumer Sentiment (est 88.9); Chicago PMI (est 62.5)
European (DAX -0.13%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +0.03%) were weak & split. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, oil up, gold & commodities down, bonds up big. Contra action: $ and bond prices up. Yields are the lowest since mid Feb. Warning! Will Robinson, imminent inversion.
All 10 sectors beat down on higher volume. 24 of 39 SP500 companies reporting beat the number. Oil whipsawing after + 6.4% last week, - 4% MON, +4% TUE, -5% WEN (largest single day drop this year), today oil was down -3.5% and under $50 barrel, but retraced to finish slightly up. Energy -2.6% and Materials -1.0% got pounded down.
Q1 GDP 3.1% (est 3.5%, Q4 3.8%) slowest GDP growth in 2 years, chain deflator 3.2% (est 2.1%, Q4 2.3%) a major jump in "inflation". Jobless initial claims 320K (est 325K, last week 296K, Total 2.56M a 4 year low)
Today's Sooey!! award goes to: Lehman Bros, WR Hambrecht & AmTech Research for (ISIL) Intersil, P/E 55, Income 40M, Market Cap 2.5B, YoY revenue 03 minus 15%, 04 minus 3.5%, YoY EPS growth Q4 minus 31%, QoQ EPS growth decelerating and big.
ISIL manufacture's analog integrated circuits, 66% of their revenue is from OEM's. Good night Mrs. Calabash! Upgraded from HOLD to BUY, stock up 8.04%. Oh, by the way, Instituional Ownership 84%, shame on those shill "analists" and pity da fools.
From yesterday: "If estimates are lowered across the board and the chain deflator gives a negative surprise, then the market will get hammered on recession fears."
Oh yes, and how... lowered GDP/forward guidance and a stagflation laced chain deflator slipped the market a triple digit dip mickey WITH AUTHORITY. Internals were a train wreck and the market hemorrhaged into the close.
Today was Q1's largest mourning of quarterly reports (131). No that is not a typo, "mourning" is the word. Solid reports from the majors and falling oil could not save this stagflation & economic softpatch fearing wreck.
Bye tech or Hi tech, especially semis, got hit. The flight to safety was not to oil or energy, but to U.S. Treasuries. The government needs to service its debt and the herd is being magnificently spooked into the "safety" of bonds. The hammer will drop when Uncle Al sez boo.
Mid May is going to be very ugly for reasons that we will explain at a later date. If you have not already, any bounce between now and then, sell into it and as Arnold said in True Lies, "Get out! Theres a hole in da bridge!".
Fridays have been consolidation days, players cash in before the weekend. Today they hit the road early, so beware of the bounce: The DJIA still needs to cover his gap @ 10278.75.
Tomorrow, I am expecting a gap down (monitor the aftermarket), after that, an increase in wages, postive Chicago PMI, lowered consumer sentiment and a decrease in spending would be the Cou d'gra to roll us off the ledge.
But somehow, the non empirical side of me suspect's its too good to be true, and this weeks pattern will hold, Mon, Wen up; Tue, Thu down. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: Drug 0.2%
Negative: Everything
Dollar: vs Yen: +0.1850 106.0550 ; vs Euro: +0.0036 1.2894
Bonds: 10-yr note +18 ticks yielding -.071 4.15%
Gold: XAU -1.70%; $432.40 -1.70 CRB: 304.40 -1.48
Oil: XOI -0.95%, Cushing Crude $52.60; +$0.16; +0.31%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 51/143; Nasdaq 38/236; Amex 19/41
A/D Volume: NYSE 374/1760, Nasdaq 379/1481, Amex 30/213
Volume: NYSE 2.14B, Nasdaq 1.87B
Note: For GOLD, the difference between yesterday and todays close on the New York market will be used hence forth.
Upcoming Notable reports:
FRI: MoM Change; Personal Income (Feb 0.3%, est 0.4%), Consumer Spending (Feb 0.3%, est 0.5%);Employment Cost Index (est +1.0%); Michigan Consumer Sentiment (est 88.9); Chicago PMI (est 62.5)
European (DAX -0.13%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +0.03%) were weak & split. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, oil up, gold & commodities down, bonds up big. Contra action: $ and bond prices up. Yields are the lowest since mid Feb. Warning! Will Robinson, imminent inversion.
All 10 sectors beat down on higher volume. 24 of 39 SP500 companies reporting beat the number. Oil whipsawing after + 6.4% last week, - 4% MON, +4% TUE, -5% WEN (largest single day drop this year), today oil was down -3.5% and under $50 barrel, but retraced to finish slightly up. Energy -2.6% and Materials -1.0% got pounded down.
Q1 GDP 3.1% (est 3.5%, Q4 3.8%) slowest GDP growth in 2 years, chain deflator 3.2% (est 2.1%, Q4 2.3%) a major jump in "inflation". Jobless initial claims 320K (est 325K, last week 296K, Total 2.56M a 4 year low)
Today's Sooey!! award goes to: Lehman Bros, WR Hambrecht & AmTech Research for (ISIL) Intersil, P/E 55, Income 40M, Market Cap 2.5B, YoY revenue 03 minus 15%, 04 minus 3.5%, YoY EPS growth Q4 minus 31%, QoQ EPS growth decelerating and big.
ISIL manufacture's analog integrated circuits, 66% of their revenue is from OEM's. Good night Mrs. Calabash! Upgraded from HOLD to BUY, stock up 8.04%. Oh, by the way, Instituional Ownership 84%, shame on those shill "analists" and pity da fools.
From yesterday: "If estimates are lowered across the board and the chain deflator gives a negative surprise, then the market will get hammered on recession fears."
Oh yes, and how... lowered GDP/forward guidance and a stagflation laced chain deflator slipped the market a triple digit dip mickey WITH AUTHORITY. Internals were a train wreck and the market hemorrhaged into the close.
Today was Q1's largest mourning of quarterly reports (131). No that is not a typo, "mourning" is the word. Solid reports from the majors and falling oil could not save this stagflation & economic softpatch fearing wreck.
Bye tech or Hi tech, especially semis, got hit. The flight to safety was not to oil or energy, but to U.S. Treasuries. The government needs to service its debt and the herd is being magnificently spooked into the "safety" of bonds. The hammer will drop when Uncle Al sez boo.
Mid May is going to be very ugly for reasons that we will explain at a later date. If you have not already, any bounce between now and then, sell into it and as Arnold said in True Lies, "Get out! Theres a hole in da bridge!".
Fridays have been consolidation days, players cash in before the weekend. Today they hit the road early, so beware of the bounce: The DJIA still needs to cover his gap @ 10278.75.
Tomorrow, I am expecting a gap down (monitor the aftermarket), after that, an increase in wages, postive Chicago PMI, lowered consumer sentiment and a decrease in spending would be the Cou d'gra to roll us off the ledge.
But somehow, the non empirical side of me suspect's its too good to be true, and this weeks pattern will hold, Mon, Wen up; Tue, Thu down. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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