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Thursday, September 22, 2005

BLS Non Farms Job "Creation" 2001 to Present

"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies and statistics." - Mark Twain

The non farm payrolls report is the most watched gauge of job creation in this country.

Of the 274,000 jobs the government reported as created in April 2005, a full 257,000 came from a formula for estimating theoretical jobs.

In other words, 94% of the reported new jobs may not even exist, and The Nattering Naybob is going to show you that they don't.

Furthermore, you will see from official BLS statistics that job creation levels over the last 4 years are almost ZERO.

According to the BLS statistics, from Jan 2001 through Jun 2005, seasonally adjusted non farm payrolls which includes all government and private sector jobs has increased from 132.454 million to 133.588 million.

This means that 1.134 million new jobs were created over the 54 month period. 1.134 Million does that sound good to you?

After further review, over the same time period...the government sector increased from 20.832 million to 21.760 million accounting for 928,000 of the new jobs...

and the private sector increased from 111.622 million to 111.828 million accounting for 206,000 of the new jobs...

This means that the private sector created an average of 3887 jobs each month while the government created an average of 17510 jobs each month, for a total of 21387 new jobs each month during the 4 1/2 year period.

If the 3887 private sector jobs per month did not SHOCK you, I am going to repeat the total of 21,387 new jobs per month.

Yes, these are the ACTUAL number of jobs reported from the BLS web site. How does 21,387 per month contrast with the April 2005 reported number of 274,000???

The reason for the discrepency, the BLS goes back every six months or so and recalculates the numbers to reflect ACTUAL employment. So remember the current June numbers are still estimated.

Interesting codicil: During the same period construction employment rose by 413,000 jobs for a 6% increase while over 2.825 Million manufacturing jobs were lost for a 16.5% decrease.

Using non seaonsonally adjusted figures and moving back to the latest recalculated official BLS figures six months ago in Jan 2005 yields an even more startling, eye opening and jaw dropping discovery, I hope your sitting down for this one.

The private sector - Jan 2005 - 108.875 million, Jan 2001 - 109.680 million, for a LOSS of 805,000 private sector jobs over the 4 years!!!!

The government sector - Jan 2005 - 21.620 million, Jan 2001 - 20.753 million, for an increase of 867,000 jobs. Seems the private sector couldn't fire people fast enough.

Total non farm payrolls Jan 2001 130.433 million - Jan 2005 130.495 million. This yields exactly 62,000 new jobs, for a whopping 1,291 jobs created monthly over the 4 year period. Yee-haw, shit howdy a whole 1291 new jobs per month!!! Now that's what I call getting jobbed.

Using seasonally adjusted numbers: Unemployed persons Jan 2001 - 6.017 million, Jan 2005 - 7.737 million, for an INCREASE of 1.720 million unemployed persons over the 4 year period.

In closing, we will put some delicious icing on this tasty shit cake known as JOBS "CREATION", the eligible workforce population 16 & older Jan 2001 - 213.888 million, Jan 2005 - 224.837 million, for an increase of 10.989 million persons over the four years.

Just to keep pace with workforce population growth at the current employment population ratio of 62.4% would have required the creation of 6.832 million jobs over the period, factoring in the 62,000 jobs actually created leaves us 6.770 million jobs short.

As the recalulated BLS figures clearly show over the period, actual job creation is no where near the non farms payroll report estimates which are widely reported, we have lost 16.5% of our manufacturing jobs and the bulk of woefully inadequate new job "creation" is in the government itself.

BLS Web Site


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