Market Soapbox 09/23/05 UPDATED
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to the bit in mouth media as they now swing market sentiment based on which way the wind blows and how hard.
I have never seen the markets so sensitive to geopolitical issues, natural disasters and all kinds of supply demand hobgoblins. The media and intelligentsia have done an excellent job in promulgating all kinds of urban myths on a gullible and feeble minded public.
Monday a down day with AUTHORITY DJIA -94, Tues down with AUTHORITY DJIA -76, Wend, down with AUTHORITY DJIA -103 on higher volume. Thurs a bounce DJIA +44 This week & last DJIA -270.
Today, RUT & MID tried to give leadership, but it was sideways and down with ugly internals DJIA - 2.5. Rita downgraded to Category 3 causing energy -1.7% & crude oil -3.5% @ $64.19 to pull back.
XAU & XOI beat down like conga drums. Gold Bugs, Natural Gas, Commodities, Oil Services, Biotech , Semi Mfg, Software, Basic Materials, Financial, Real Estate & Energy got spanked. Airlines & Heathcare up.
European & Asian markets up. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro , XAU & gold down, XOI & oil down, commodities & bonds down. Contra trend: Airlines up, Transports down
Bond prices down with the 10 year yield increasing to 4.25%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 19 basis points. The 30 year fell raising its yield to 4.52, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 27 basis points.
Shares of Oracle were punished afterhours -4.6% and another 8.25% today on revenue growth issues. Revenue was below expectations and the bulk of the gains were due to Oracle's acquisition of PeopleSoft.
Alcoa advised that Q3 profit would be lower because of lower aluminum prices & Hurricane Rita, the shares were punished -7%.
So far YTD, 13 week T bill +55.05%; 5yr T Note +10.42%; 10yr T Note -1.04%; 30yr T Note -7.45%; $ vs Pound +7.44%; $ vs Euro +11.25%; $ vs Yen +8.89%; Materials -9%; Gold +7.28%; Oil +53.05%; Heating Oil +64.41%; Unleaded Gas +78.83%; Natural Gas +108.31%.
This week, on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, SP500, RUT, & MID all are resting on 90 DMA and testing its support. SOX, NDX & Nasdaq are at 11 week lows and waiting for a reason to cave in further.
I believe that the XAU should not go much above 115 and by the end of this year could be under 100, so sorry Gold Member, oh behave!!!.
The SOX will be range bound in Oct, Nov a decline below 450, then a rebound to 465 by year end.
And this may sound insane, but its possible, the XOI could pull back to 1000 or even the 975 range within the next 2 months, and though I can, I will not elaborate on how or why.
In any event, my sense is that we will see a broadbased longer lasting market decline next year rather than before this years end.
At any rate, further consolidation awaits as the indices have fallen through near term support and if the wind blows just a little harder, they will tumble off their 90 DMA's into a free fall towards DJIA 10000 - 10150 & SP500 1150 - 1180.
If you like buying on the dips, that may be a good point to start taking tiny nibbles... was that by Don Ho or B.Kliban??
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to the bit in mouth media as they now swing market sentiment based on which way the wind blows and how hard.
I have never seen the markets so sensitive to geopolitical issues, natural disasters and all kinds of supply demand hobgoblins. The media and intelligentsia have done an excellent job in promulgating all kinds of urban myths on a gullible and feeble minded public.
Monday a down day with AUTHORITY DJIA -94, Tues down with AUTHORITY DJIA -76, Wend, down with AUTHORITY DJIA -103 on higher volume. Thurs a bounce DJIA +44 This week & last DJIA -270.
Today, RUT & MID tried to give leadership, but it was sideways and down with ugly internals DJIA - 2.5. Rita downgraded to Category 3 causing energy -1.7% & crude oil -3.5% @ $64.19 to pull back.
XAU & XOI beat down like conga drums. Gold Bugs, Natural Gas, Commodities, Oil Services, Biotech , Semi Mfg, Software, Basic Materials, Financial, Real Estate & Energy got spanked. Airlines & Heathcare up.
European & Asian markets up. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro , XAU & gold down, XOI & oil down, commodities & bonds down. Contra trend: Airlines up, Transports down
Bond prices down with the 10 year yield increasing to 4.25%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 19 basis points. The 30 year fell raising its yield to 4.52, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 27 basis points.
Shares of Oracle were punished afterhours -4.6% and another 8.25% today on revenue growth issues. Revenue was below expectations and the bulk of the gains were due to Oracle's acquisition of PeopleSoft.
Alcoa advised that Q3 profit would be lower because of lower aluminum prices & Hurricane Rita, the shares were punished -7%.
So far YTD, 13 week T bill +55.05%; 5yr T Note +10.42%; 10yr T Note -1.04%; 30yr T Note -7.45%; $ vs Pound +7.44%; $ vs Euro +11.25%; $ vs Yen +8.89%; Materials -9%; Gold +7.28%; Oil +53.05%; Heating Oil +64.41%; Unleaded Gas +78.83%; Natural Gas +108.31%.
This week, on higher volume, DJIA plunged below all major DMA's, SP500, RUT, & MID all are resting on 90 DMA and testing its support. SOX, NDX & Nasdaq are at 11 week lows and waiting for a reason to cave in further.
I believe that the XAU should not go much above 115 and by the end of this year could be under 100, so sorry Gold Member, oh behave!!!.
The SOX will be range bound in Oct, Nov a decline below 450, then a rebound to 465 by year end.
And this may sound insane, but its possible, the XOI could pull back to 1000 or even the 975 range within the next 2 months, and though I can, I will not elaborate on how or why.
In any event, my sense is that we will see a broadbased longer lasting market decline next year rather than before this years end.
At any rate, further consolidation awaits as the indices have fallen through near term support and if the wind blows just a little harder, they will tumble off their 90 DMA's into a free fall towards DJIA 10000 - 10150 & SP500 1150 - 1180.
If you like buying on the dips, that may be a good point to start taking tiny nibbles... was that by Don Ho or B.Kliban??
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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