Market Soapbox 09/19/05 UPDATED
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me, for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Last week a down week DJIA -38, today a down day with AUTHORITY DJIA -94 and -120 at one point as Fridays rally was given back.
Natural gas, oil services, energy, commodities & oil indexes up big. Everything else down in a sea of red which from the numbers looked like a blood bath.
European & Asian markets down. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro , XAU down & gold up, XOI +2.5% & oil up, commodities & bonds up. Contra trend: Amex XAX went up, the dollar and gold continue to rise together.
Tropical storm Rita hype jacked crude oil up 7% $67.39, natural gas prices up 13% (to an all time high), unleaded up 14%, this and tomorrows FOMC meeting put a damper on any follow through rally from Friday.
Bond prices up with the 10 year yield decreasing to 4.25%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 23 basis points.
An indecisive German election result had the Euro plunging against the dollar while gold shot above $470, gold futures hit a 17 year high.
Fridays rally was on higher volume, but todays lack of followthrough makes it a wash. We have what appears to be double tops forming on the SOX, RUT, MID & SP500, the DJIA looks like trips.
YTD the DJUA (utilities), XAU (gold & silver), OIH (oil services) & XOI (oil & gas) have gone through the roof.
XLV (healthcare) has been slowly grinding upwards since Oct 04. BBH (biotech) through the roof since 03/15, while PPH (pharma) has headed down since 04/15.
The DJ Mortgage Finance Index had a disasterous Q1 and since 06/22 has been in a nose dive along with the rest of the Mortgage Reits. The HGX (homebuilders) are tanking since 07/29.
The DJTA (transports) & RTH (retailers) & XLY (consumer discretionary) have gone in the tank since 07/29. RKH (regional banks) since 07/15, XLB (materials) since 03/04.
Remember, transports & retailers are a harbinger of what is to come in the industrials. Taken collectively with the other market sectors recent performance, the market is telling us something.
Excepting the deceiving bond market (more on this in a post tomorrow), the market is saying inflation, higher interest rates & possible recession to come.
Aug 29th through Sep 12th the market headed up in sympathy and we were overly optimistic. Last week, an about face with ugly internals, perhaps a dose of reality and what is to come.
Taking into consideration the YTD market signs and Katrinas fallout (see todays Neutron Bomb Katrina post), we could be headed down for the remainder of September & October.
We may not see significant upwards movement until the New Orleans rebuilding efforts are in full swing and the port is at 80% capacity later this year.
Only a pause by the Fed or further major pullback in oil could pull this market up by its boot straps. Given the Fed's targeting of the housing bubble and oils speculative herd, the chances are slim and none & Slim just left town.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me, for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Last week a down week DJIA -38, today a down day with AUTHORITY DJIA -94 and -120 at one point as Fridays rally was given back.
Natural gas, oil services, energy, commodities & oil indexes up big. Everything else down in a sea of red which from the numbers looked like a blood bath.
European & Asian markets down. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro , XAU down & gold up, XOI +2.5% & oil up, commodities & bonds up. Contra trend: Amex XAX went up, the dollar and gold continue to rise together.
Tropical storm Rita hype jacked crude oil up 7% $67.39, natural gas prices up 13% (to an all time high), unleaded up 14%, this and tomorrows FOMC meeting put a damper on any follow through rally from Friday.
Bond prices up with the 10 year yield decreasing to 4.25%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 23 basis points.
An indecisive German election result had the Euro plunging against the dollar while gold shot above $470, gold futures hit a 17 year high.
Fridays rally was on higher volume, but todays lack of followthrough makes it a wash. We have what appears to be double tops forming on the SOX, RUT, MID & SP500, the DJIA looks like trips.
YTD the DJUA (utilities), XAU (gold & silver), OIH (oil services) & XOI (oil & gas) have gone through the roof.
XLV (healthcare) has been slowly grinding upwards since Oct 04. BBH (biotech) through the roof since 03/15, while PPH (pharma) has headed down since 04/15.
The DJ Mortgage Finance Index had a disasterous Q1 and since 06/22 has been in a nose dive along with the rest of the Mortgage Reits. The HGX (homebuilders) are tanking since 07/29.
The DJTA (transports) & RTH (retailers) & XLY (consumer discretionary) have gone in the tank since 07/29. RKH (regional banks) since 07/15, XLB (materials) since 03/04.
Remember, transports & retailers are a harbinger of what is to come in the industrials. Taken collectively with the other market sectors recent performance, the market is telling us something.
Excepting the deceiving bond market (more on this in a post tomorrow), the market is saying inflation, higher interest rates & possible recession to come.
Aug 29th through Sep 12th the market headed up in sympathy and we were overly optimistic. Last week, an about face with ugly internals, perhaps a dose of reality and what is to come.
Taking into consideration the YTD market signs and Katrinas fallout (see todays Neutron Bomb Katrina post), we could be headed down for the remainder of September & October.
We may not see significant upwards movement until the New Orleans rebuilding efforts are in full swing and the port is at 80% capacity later this year.
Only a pause by the Fed or further major pullback in oil could pull this market up by its boot straps. Given the Fed's targeting of the housing bubble and oils speculative herd, the chances are slim and none & Slim just left town.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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