H5N1 Avian Flu Stocks to Watch Update - Captain Trips?

On 09/03/05 we posted our H5N1 Avian Flu Stocks to Watch. Heres an update of the last few weeks activity and some additional candidates.

The largest drug company in Europe has committed to be a leader in flu vaccines and is expanding to North America via ID Biomedical.

Pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced it would buy Canada-based ID Biomedical, (IDBE is one of our hot picks) a maker of flu vaccines, for over $1.4 billion US.

IDBE is developing a highly improved flu vaccine for the elderly and hopes to introduce a new technology for making flu vaccines using cell cultures instead of chicken eggs by 2010.

ID Biomedical IDBE the leading vaccine company in Canada has accepted the takeover bid from GlaxoSmithKline but analysts aren't ready to rule out a competing bid. It has guaranteed purchase contracts in the United States and its two Quebec plants will be the most modern in the world in 2007.

Pharmaceutical giant, Swiss-based Novartis AG (on the Frankfurt exchange), made a $4.5 billion to buy out the 58% of US vaccine maker and blood-test manufacturer Chiron CHIR that it does not already own.

Chiron the No. 2 vaccine player is fighting the takeover bid from Novartis, which is attempting to break into the flu vaccine sector. Operating problems at a British plant kept its vaccine out of the United States last year but the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently cleared the plant to resume production.

Since we begin watching 08/01/05 and since our posting on 09/03/05:

Vaccine Category: SNY Sanofi Aventis down 7% & down 5% at a 6 month low; CHIR Chiron up 17.5% & then flat; GILD Gilead Sciences up 4.7% & up 11.5%; IDBE ID Biomedical up 43% & up 20%; SVA Sinovac Biotech up 53% & up 40%.

Meats Category: CGL/A Cagles down 14% & up 16%; PPC Pilgrims Pride down 3% & up 8.5%; CAG ConAgra up 7% & up 4%; IDA Industrias Bachoco up 8% & up 16%; PDA Perdigao up 43% & up 27%; SDA Sadia up 44% & up 26%.

Comments

Mr. Naybob said…
It might be morbid, but not a bad idea, as I never met a poor mortician, people are just dying to give them business...

Not to be an ambulance chaser, but another idea would be to short the HMO's.

Especially those which cater to lower income families and whose survival is dependent on Medicaid contracts.

Earlier this year, Amerigroup & Molina Health Services reported operating losses due to increased use of outpatient services (read emergency care) due to a "high incidence of flu-like illness".

http://naybob.blogspot.com/2005/07/washington-state-escalates-h5n1-flu.html