Market Soapbox 09/28/05
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Last week, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA - 2.5% plunged below all major DMA's, SP500 -1.7%, RUT, & MID all are resting on 90 DMA. SOX, NDX & Nasdaq -2% are at 11 week lows.
Mon. an up and down day DJIA +24, Tues, DJIA +12 a sideways split tape day with ugly internals and no market leadership, Today, another herky jerk day DJIA +25 with unimpressive internals.
Energy futures spiked big, Oil +2% @ 66.40, Unleaded +4% @ 2.18 & Natural Gas +7.5% @ 13.45M/BTU an all time high, this took the steam out of the markets quarter end window dressing while the MID and RUT were down.
Transports, Utilities, Semis, Gold Bugs, Commodities, Oil, Natural Gas, Energy, Networking & Biotech up nicely. Reits -1.3%, Real Estate, Brokers, Consumer Discretionary, Retailers, Finance & Regional Banking all down, YTD Banking sector - 9.6%.
European & Asian markets up BIG again. Dollar down vs. Yen & Euro , XAU +2% & gold up, XOI & oil up, commodities +2% & bonds up. Contra trend: Energy spike & all sectors reading recession, yet transports up.
And the flattening continues as bond prices up with the 10 year yield decreasing to 4.25%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 15 basis points. The 30 year rose dropping its yield to 4.50, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 24 basis points.
YTD consumer discretionary sector -8.8%. The consumers dauber may be down, but durable goods orders are way up as August checked in at +3.3% well above est. +0.7%, and June -4.9%, ex transportation checked in at a surprising +4.2%.
The EIA report caused a slight pullback in todays oil surge after showing a drop of 2.4M barrels, est -1.7M , while gasoline supply unexpectedly rose 4.4 M est -2.3M and distillates inventories declined -0.5M est -1.89M. Is demand waning?
The market caught support at the critical 90 DMA and is hovering there, depending on which way the wind blows, who knows in what direction we shall go?
Probably down, from yesterday "If you have not already, get some long term shorts ready on homebuilders, mortgage lenders and Reits, if you think they have tanked recently, theres alot of cord left on the bungy, next year they are going even further south along with most of the financial sector and in a big way."
Today's market sector analysis shows the market is yelling "recession ahead", pull backs in every area effected by an anticipated housing bubble deflation, increases in inputs, commodities & energy. Yet, transports rose, perhaps because the fallout from Katrina & Rita will change logistics.
This will result in awaiting cargo being moved by any available train, boat or intermodal rail with a fuel surcharge to cover $70 oil thrown in for good measure, expect the cost of goods to rise, substantially along with the PPI.
This increase will get passed on to the consumer and be reflected in the CPI. With a rising CPI & PPI this virtually guarantees the Fed will continue raising in 2006 and a yield curve inversion.
And not only are the equity markets screaming recession, so is the bond market. Money market yields may be at a four year high, but you still can't beat the 10 year, no FDIC 100k insurance limit, a guaranteed return locked in for 10 years with liquidity and exemption from state taxes.
For those in the liability and asset matching game its a no brainer, unless rates unexpectedly go way up and the bond market gets slapped silly just like in 1994.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Last week, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA - 2.5% plunged below all major DMA's, SP500 -1.7%, RUT, & MID all are resting on 90 DMA. SOX, NDX & Nasdaq -2% are at 11 week lows.
Mon. an up and down day DJIA +24, Tues, DJIA +12 a sideways split tape day with ugly internals and no market leadership, Today, another herky jerk day DJIA +25 with unimpressive internals.
Energy futures spiked big, Oil +2% @ 66.40, Unleaded +4% @ 2.18 & Natural Gas +7.5% @ 13.45M/BTU an all time high, this took the steam out of the markets quarter end window dressing while the MID and RUT were down.
Transports, Utilities, Semis, Gold Bugs, Commodities, Oil, Natural Gas, Energy, Networking & Biotech up nicely. Reits -1.3%, Real Estate, Brokers, Consumer Discretionary, Retailers, Finance & Regional Banking all down, YTD Banking sector - 9.6%.
European & Asian markets up BIG again. Dollar down vs. Yen & Euro , XAU +2% & gold up, XOI & oil up, commodities +2% & bonds up. Contra trend: Energy spike & all sectors reading recession, yet transports up.
And the flattening continues as bond prices up with the 10 year yield decreasing to 4.25%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 15 basis points. The 30 year rose dropping its yield to 4.50, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 24 basis points.
YTD consumer discretionary sector -8.8%. The consumers dauber may be down, but durable goods orders are way up as August checked in at +3.3% well above est. +0.7%, and June -4.9%, ex transportation checked in at a surprising +4.2%.
The EIA report caused a slight pullback in todays oil surge after showing a drop of 2.4M barrels, est -1.7M , while gasoline supply unexpectedly rose 4.4 M est -2.3M and distillates inventories declined -0.5M est -1.89M. Is demand waning?
The market caught support at the critical 90 DMA and is hovering there, depending on which way the wind blows, who knows in what direction we shall go?
Probably down, from yesterday "If you have not already, get some long term shorts ready on homebuilders, mortgage lenders and Reits, if you think they have tanked recently, theres alot of cord left on the bungy, next year they are going even further south along with most of the financial sector and in a big way."
Today's market sector analysis shows the market is yelling "recession ahead", pull backs in every area effected by an anticipated housing bubble deflation, increases in inputs, commodities & energy. Yet, transports rose, perhaps because the fallout from Katrina & Rita will change logistics.
This will result in awaiting cargo being moved by any available train, boat or intermodal rail with a fuel surcharge to cover $70 oil thrown in for good measure, expect the cost of goods to rise, substantially along with the PPI.
This increase will get passed on to the consumer and be reflected in the CPI. With a rising CPI & PPI this virtually guarantees the Fed will continue raising in 2006 and a yield curve inversion.
And not only are the equity markets screaming recession, so is the bond market. Money market yields may be at a four year high, but you still can't beat the 10 year, no FDIC 100k insurance limit, a guaranteed return locked in for 10 years with liquidity and exemption from state taxes.
For those in the liability and asset matching game its a no brainer, unless rates unexpectedly go way up and the bond market gets slapped silly just like in 1994.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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