Market Soapbox 09/30/05 UPDATED
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the little porker have a quiet day in its poke.
Last week, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA - 2.5% plunged below all major DMA's, SP500 -1.7%, RUT, & MID all are resting on 90 DMA. SOX, NDX & Nasdaq -2% were at 11 week lows.
Mon. up and down DJIA +24, Tues, DJIA +12 sideways split tape with ugly internals and no market leadership, Wen, herky jerk DJIA +16 with unimpressive internals. Thurs, bouncy, initially DJIA -42 then up DJIA +80 with improved internals.
Today, DJIA +16, XOI & XAU got beat down, RUT, MID, Transports & Semis gave leadership, indicative of the whole week, despite the energy complex pulling back, tenative with so-so internals and lacking leadership and conviction. On the week DJIA +148, gaining back half of last weeks losses.
Reits, Semis, Real Estate, Healtcare, Biotech & Airlines up nicely. Energy, Finance, Oil Services, Natural Gas, Commodities, Regional Banks, Utilities, Healthcare & Gold Bugs down.
SP400 MID giving leadership, up 7.8% YTD, Banks are acting like a pig going through a python, down 7.3% YTD. For the quarter, energy prices, crude + 13%, unleaded gas + 44, natural gas + 80%. Only the 10th time since 1970, the market closed up for the month of September.
European markets up & Asian markets flat. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro , XAU & gold down, XOI & oil down, commodities & bonds down. Contra trend: none
And the flattening continues as bond prices down with the 10 year yield increasing to 4.33%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 15 basis points. The 30 year fell raising its yield to 4.56, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 23 basis points. FYI, the 2 year and 5 year gap is only 2 basis points.
No surprises here, cinch that belt another notch: Aug personal income fell 0.1% est 0.3% rise. Aug personal spending fell -0.5% est -0.2%, not many cars sold after the give aways in June & July, expect more giveaways by year end.
Wolverine Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan) checked in low at 76.9 est 78. Chicago PMI way up at 60.5, vs. est. 52 & Aug 49.2. Monday's national ISM will be somewhat more definitive.
The market caught support at the critical 90 DMA and is floundering there, where next? Without a pullback in energy, this sitting duck is treading water and just waiting to get blown out of the water.
Without leadership and conviction, the direction is probably down. Anyone waiting for a year end rally to liquidate, might want to reconsider todays values considering what Octobers have brought in the past.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10250 ; SP500 1200 ; Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1535
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the little porker have a quiet day in its poke.
Last week, DJIA -270 on higher volume, DJIA - 2.5% plunged below all major DMA's, SP500 -1.7%, RUT, & MID all are resting on 90 DMA. SOX, NDX & Nasdaq -2% were at 11 week lows.
Mon. up and down DJIA +24, Tues, DJIA +12 sideways split tape with ugly internals and no market leadership, Wen, herky jerk DJIA +16 with unimpressive internals. Thurs, bouncy, initially DJIA -42 then up DJIA +80 with improved internals.
Today, DJIA +16, XOI & XAU got beat down, RUT, MID, Transports & Semis gave leadership, indicative of the whole week, despite the energy complex pulling back, tenative with so-so internals and lacking leadership and conviction. On the week DJIA +148, gaining back half of last weeks losses.
Reits, Semis, Real Estate, Healtcare, Biotech & Airlines up nicely. Energy, Finance, Oil Services, Natural Gas, Commodities, Regional Banks, Utilities, Healthcare & Gold Bugs down.
SP400 MID giving leadership, up 7.8% YTD, Banks are acting like a pig going through a python, down 7.3% YTD. For the quarter, energy prices, crude + 13%, unleaded gas + 44, natural gas + 80%. Only the 10th time since 1970, the market closed up for the month of September.
European markets up & Asian markets flat. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro , XAU & gold down, XOI & oil down, commodities & bonds down. Contra trend: none
And the flattening continues as bond prices down with the 10 year yield increasing to 4.33%. The gap between 5 & 10 year notes stands at 15 basis points. The 30 year fell raising its yield to 4.56, the gap between 10 & 30 now stands at 23 basis points. FYI, the 2 year and 5 year gap is only 2 basis points.
No surprises here, cinch that belt another notch: Aug personal income fell 0.1% est 0.3% rise. Aug personal spending fell -0.5% est -0.2%, not many cars sold after the give aways in June & July, expect more giveaways by year end.
Wolverine Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan) checked in low at 76.9 est 78. Chicago PMI way up at 60.5, vs. est. 52 & Aug 49.2. Monday's national ISM will be somewhat more definitive.
The market caught support at the critical 90 DMA and is floundering there, where next? Without a pullback in energy, this sitting duck is treading water and just waiting to get blown out of the water.
Without leadership and conviction, the direction is probably down. Anyone waiting for a year end rally to liquidate, might want to reconsider todays values considering what Octobers have brought in the past.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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