H5N1 Avian Flu Stock Update - Captain Trips?

In the past two weeks the H5N1 avian flu virus was confirmed in Turkey, Greece, Romania and Iran. Testing is underway in Croatia. Today, H5N1 was found in a parrot in the UK.

In addition to already spreading all over Asia, H5N1 will soon be spreading to poultry and wild birds all over the Middle East, Europe and Africa. No recent human deaths or virus mutations able to easily spread to humans have been reported.

In Turkey, around 8600 birds were culled this week in and around the village of Kiziksa, in the neighbouring province to Manisa.

9 people are under medical observation in Turkey after reports of 40 pigeons in their neighbourhood died in mysterious circumstances. All 9 are from Manisa, which is close to the village where the fatal H5N1 strain of bird flu was identified this week.

Turkish authorities have urged calm, amid reports of people flocking to pharmacies to buy Tamiflu (oseltamivir), the antiviral believed to be most effective against bird flu.

We have previously commented on Tamiflu's inability to prevent the disease in humans and suspect ability to combat symptoms. Recent news from Vietnam indicates that Tamiflu might not work as well as expected.

The UK government has ordered 14.6 million doses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu. This would be enough for 25 per cent of the population.

Fowl farmers are claiming that the contradictory information regarding the existence of the bird flu in Romania has triggered a fall of 40 per cent in the sales of fowl and products.

In Italy, poultry sales have fallen by 30 to 40 per cent, and Spanish retailers are on high alert following reports this week of infected Romanian poultry farms. The French poultry wholesalers' union told local newspapers that poultry consumption has dropped by about 10 per cent since the beginning of October compared to last year.

Adding to the list of potential H5N1 stocks (see the sidebar H5N1 Avian Flu for previous posts and stock plays) Novartis - NVS; Acambis - ACAM; MedImmune - MEDI; Biocryst - BCRX; Biota - BTAHY (BTAHFM;AU:BTA); Novavax - NVAX; Crucell - CRXL.

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