Market Soapbox 10/19/05 UDPATED
Resistance: DJIA 10450; SP500 1200; Nasdaq 2100; NDX 1550
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
Our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, yesterday PPI checked in +1.9% vs est. +1.2%. This more than tripled the Aug. number and is the largest rise since 1990. The core rate, which excludes food and energy; at best an inaccurate inflation indication, was +0.3% vs. est. +0.2% vs. last month's flat read.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG and BIG DUH!!! award goes to the media and Wall Street analysts for playing along with the CPI & PPI fraud. Early on today, this goaded investors to buy into the financial sector +1.6% on strong earnings reports.
Sorry folks but the yield curve is flattening and rates will continue to rise, bad news for the financial sector and a bad move on the part of misinformed or confused investors.
Comments from analysts such as "Excluding food and energy, the figures are pretty tame which means the recent inflationary worries are probably not as big a concern as they were." And comments from media such as "The core rate, which excludes food and energy and is arguably a more accurate inflation indication", just perpetuate the fraudulent misuse of these statistics.
I guess if I lived in the mythical "core" CPI and PPI where energy and food costs are excluded and inflation is "tame", I could stop worrying about heating my house, or being concerned about the cost of driving my car and eating; and if my business was operating in the vacuum known as the "core"; I would not have to worry about rising food and energy inputs either.
Can someone please direct my business concerns and I to the nearest "core" community? I would love to live and conduct business in a vacumm that is insulated from the real world, right, got it, thanks! Just the facts Ma'am!!! and a hearty, SOOHEY PIG PIG!!! and DUH!!!
European & Asian markets beat down BIG. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro, XAU & gold futures down BIG, XOI up & oil futures down 1.2% @ $62.41, commodities down & bonds up. Contra trend: None.
4 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +148, up and down all week, lacking conviction. 2 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing through long term resistance levels on higher volume. Last week, large swings up & down DJIA -6.
This week, Mon. DJIA gapped up 23, and rallied up to close +61 giving a follow-through on Fridays action. Tues. DJIA came out looking for 10420, he got close but the PPI slapped him upside the head, crashing into the close finishing minus 62 and giving back all of Mondays gains.
Today, a wild and woolly roller coaster ride, wobbly out the gate DJIA -38 regaining traction midday and bouncing around the flat line with flacid internals, then accelerating into the close DJIA +128 with improved internals. This week DJIA +127, over the last 4+ weeks -282.
XAU and Gold Bugs getting the royal slap down. Semis flat, everyone else moving up big late in the day. This was the follow - through day needed after Fri & Mondays action. All this herky jerk up and down makes the market look like Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde.
Bond prices up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.46%. The 5 & 10 year gap is 14 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.69, the 10 & 30 gap is 23 basis points. The 2 and 5 year gap is 9 basis points.
Last Thurs, the 3rd worst ever trade deficit and the biggest rise in import prices in 15 years. Last Fri, the biggest rise in CPI in 25 years and the largest drop in Industrial Production in 23 years. Today, the largest jump in PPI (wholesale prices) in 15 years.
The bulk of these increases are directly attributable to parabolically increased energy costs and the attendant STAGFLATION in our economy. Plain and simple, whoever says there is no inflation, or inflation is tame, or their is no stagflation; is either a liar or a fool or on a government payroll or any or all of the above.
From last week: "the XAU headed for 100 from 112" and "perhaps before the end of Oct" today XAU @ 104, almost there. Also, "The SOX bucked the trend today +2.15%, keep your eyes peeled on the Semis, look for follow-through as they usually indicate a change in market direction up or down ...But they are known for false positives."
Today the SOX showed just what a "false positive" is on Intels Q4 guidance (read warning), and now for some shameless self promotion; can't say you didn't hear about the plight of the Semis in these pages first either. SOX opened 440 and fell off a cliff to 426 down 2.5% early then rallying to the flat line at the close.
Housing starts in Sept. checked in at 2108K vs est 1975K, while building permits came in at 2189K vs est 2075K. Thats an increase over August and will add to the already bugeoning inventory problem.
The pullback in the energy sector and futures (crude -2%) continues, refiners losing 4.5% early as the EIA reported crude oil inventories rose 5.55M barrels vs. est. +2.3M, gasoline inventories rose 2.91M vs est.1.5M decline and distillate inventories fell 1.92M vs. est. - 2.3M.
Yesterday Exxon Mobil fell reportedly as the result of a 24 Million share block trade initiated by Goldman Sachs for unknown reasons, today Phelps Dodge was downgraded -4% early, rallying to -1.5%.
Do I hear a herd of elephants rustling about the exit gate? Maybe, maybe not. From last week "The market needs 3 consecutive up days like today to start healing, until then, we are going nowhere or down." Fri & Mon there was a glimmer, Tues PPI ruined the party. But todays action on higher volume gives some hope, so keep an eye on follow through Thurs & Fri.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT.
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
Our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, yesterday PPI checked in +1.9% vs est. +1.2%. This more than tripled the Aug. number and is the largest rise since 1990. The core rate, which excludes food and energy; at best an inaccurate inflation indication, was +0.3% vs. est. +0.2% vs. last month's flat read.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG and BIG DUH!!! award goes to the media and Wall Street analysts for playing along with the CPI & PPI fraud. Early on today, this goaded investors to buy into the financial sector +1.6% on strong earnings reports.
Sorry folks but the yield curve is flattening and rates will continue to rise, bad news for the financial sector and a bad move on the part of misinformed or confused investors.
Comments from analysts such as "Excluding food and energy, the figures are pretty tame which means the recent inflationary worries are probably not as big a concern as they were." And comments from media such as "The core rate, which excludes food and energy and is arguably a more accurate inflation indication", just perpetuate the fraudulent misuse of these statistics.
I guess if I lived in the mythical "core" CPI and PPI where energy and food costs are excluded and inflation is "tame", I could stop worrying about heating my house, or being concerned about the cost of driving my car and eating; and if my business was operating in the vacuum known as the "core"; I would not have to worry about rising food and energy inputs either.
Can someone please direct my business concerns and I to the nearest "core" community? I would love to live and conduct business in a vacumm that is insulated from the real world, right, got it, thanks! Just the facts Ma'am!!! and a hearty, SOOHEY PIG PIG!!! and DUH!!!
European & Asian markets beat down BIG. Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro, XAU & gold futures down BIG, XOI up & oil futures down 1.2% @ $62.41, commodities down & bonds up. Contra trend: None.
4 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +148, up and down all week, lacking conviction. 2 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing through long term resistance levels on higher volume. Last week, large swings up & down DJIA -6.
This week, Mon. DJIA gapped up 23, and rallied up to close +61 giving a follow-through on Fridays action. Tues. DJIA came out looking for 10420, he got close but the PPI slapped him upside the head, crashing into the close finishing minus 62 and giving back all of Mondays gains.
Today, a wild and woolly roller coaster ride, wobbly out the gate DJIA -38 regaining traction midday and bouncing around the flat line with flacid internals, then accelerating into the close DJIA +128 with improved internals. This week DJIA +127, over the last 4+ weeks -282.
XAU and Gold Bugs getting the royal slap down. Semis flat, everyone else moving up big late in the day. This was the follow - through day needed after Fri & Mondays action. All this herky jerk up and down makes the market look like Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde.
Bond prices up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.46%. The 5 & 10 year gap is 14 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.69, the 10 & 30 gap is 23 basis points. The 2 and 5 year gap is 9 basis points.
Last Thurs, the 3rd worst ever trade deficit and the biggest rise in import prices in 15 years. Last Fri, the biggest rise in CPI in 25 years and the largest drop in Industrial Production in 23 years. Today, the largest jump in PPI (wholesale prices) in 15 years.
The bulk of these increases are directly attributable to parabolically increased energy costs and the attendant STAGFLATION in our economy. Plain and simple, whoever says there is no inflation, or inflation is tame, or their is no stagflation; is either a liar or a fool or on a government payroll or any or all of the above.
From last week: "the XAU headed for 100 from 112" and "perhaps before the end of Oct" today XAU @ 104, almost there. Also, "The SOX bucked the trend today +2.15%, keep your eyes peeled on the Semis, look for follow-through as they usually indicate a change in market direction up or down ...But they are known for false positives."
Today the SOX showed just what a "false positive" is on Intels Q4 guidance (read warning), and now for some shameless self promotion; can't say you didn't hear about the plight of the Semis in these pages first either. SOX opened 440 and fell off a cliff to 426 down 2.5% early then rallying to the flat line at the close.
Housing starts in Sept. checked in at 2108K vs est 1975K, while building permits came in at 2189K vs est 2075K. Thats an increase over August and will add to the already bugeoning inventory problem.
The pullback in the energy sector and futures (crude -2%) continues, refiners losing 4.5% early as the EIA reported crude oil inventories rose 5.55M barrels vs. est. +2.3M, gasoline inventories rose 2.91M vs est.1.5M decline and distillate inventories fell 1.92M vs. est. - 2.3M.
Yesterday Exxon Mobil fell reportedly as the result of a 24 Million share block trade initiated by Goldman Sachs for unknown reasons, today Phelps Dodge was downgraded -4% early, rallying to -1.5%.
Do I hear a herd of elephants rustling about the exit gate? Maybe, maybe not. From last week "The market needs 3 consecutive up days like today to start healing, until then, we are going nowhere or down." Fri & Mon there was a glimmer, Tues PPI ruined the party. But todays action on higher volume gives some hope, so keep an eye on follow through Thurs & Fri.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT.
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