Market Soapbox 12/12/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2300; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news the Treasury Budget came in worse than expected -83.1B vs est. -82B vs prior -57.9B, the dollar cratered on the news.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
12 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 11 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 10 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 9 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 8 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
7 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 6 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 5 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 4 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
2 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. Last week, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. Today, a split tape day DJIA -11 on lower volume with split internals. This week DJIA -11, over the last 12 weeks DJIA +63.
DJUA, DJTA & XAU down, RUT & MID weak, XOI, SOX, NAZ & NDX up. CAC &DAX up, FTSE down, Hang Seng up, Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar down vs. Euro & up vs. Yen , XAU & gold up, XOI & crude up BIG +3% @ 61.30, CRB commodities up BIG. Contra trend: none.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.55% & the 30 year @ 4.74. The 2 & 5 year @ 2 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 9 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 19 basis points.
Sectors: Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Services, Energy, Tech, Semis & Commodity up nicely. Tranports, Utilities, Healthcare & Banking down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 13 Retail Sales, ex auto, Business Inventories, FOMC announcement; Dec 14 EIA Crude Inventories, Trade Balance, Import ex-oil & Export ex-ag Prices; Dec 15 CPI, Initial Claims, NY Empire Index, Net Foreign Purchases, Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production; Dec 16 Current Account.
Friday: the energy sector pulled back as crude futures were down. Meanwhile, the broader market diverged from the energy sector as the market found some near term support at 30 DMA.
Today: the energy sector gained as crude futures were up 3%. Meanwhile the broader market diverged with a small dip down. Thats two straight days the market behaves like it should, we are watching closely to see a real decoupling.
This week: Tomorrow perhaps a media spin on Retail Sales and the FOMC policy gets bonds and market pumped up on false hopes. Then EIA, Trade Balance, Import & Export Prices puts a needle in the boil. And finally CPI & Capacity Utilization misreads might provide some relief. Just a guess.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news the Treasury Budget came in worse than expected -83.1B vs est. -82B vs prior -57.9B, the dollar cratered on the news.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
12 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 11 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 10 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 9 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 8 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
7 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 6 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 5 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 4 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
2 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. Last week, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. Today, a split tape day DJIA -11 on lower volume with split internals. This week DJIA -11, over the last 12 weeks DJIA +63.
DJUA, DJTA & XAU down, RUT & MID weak, XOI, SOX, NAZ & NDX up. CAC &DAX up, FTSE down, Hang Seng up, Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar down vs. Euro & up vs. Yen , XAU & gold up, XOI & crude up BIG +3% @ 61.30, CRB commodities up BIG. Contra trend: none.
Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.55% & the 30 year @ 4.74. The 2 & 5 year @ 2 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 9 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 19 basis points.
Sectors: Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Services, Energy, Tech, Semis & Commodity up nicely. Tranports, Utilities, Healthcare & Banking down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 13 Retail Sales, ex auto, Business Inventories, FOMC announcement; Dec 14 EIA Crude Inventories, Trade Balance, Import ex-oil & Export ex-ag Prices; Dec 15 CPI, Initial Claims, NY Empire Index, Net Foreign Purchases, Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production; Dec 16 Current Account.
Friday: the energy sector pulled back as crude futures were down. Meanwhile, the broader market diverged from the energy sector as the market found some near term support at 30 DMA.
Today: the energy sector gained as crude futures were up 3%. Meanwhile the broader market diverged with a small dip down. Thats two straight days the market behaves like it should, we are watching closely to see a real decoupling.
This week: Tomorrow perhaps a media spin on Retail Sales and the FOMC policy gets bonds and market pumped up on false hopes. Then EIA, Trade Balance, Import & Export Prices puts a needle in the boil. And finally CPI & Capacity Utilization misreads might provide some relief. Just a guess.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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