Market Soapbox 12/14/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2300; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, Export prices ex-ag at -0.9% vs prior +0.7%; as nonagricultural export prices posted their biggest decline on records dating to January 1989.
Import prices ex-oil at -0.2% vs prior +0.9%, falling an unexpectedly large 1.7% last month on the back of the biggest decline in the cost of petroleum imports in almost a year and a stronger dollar.
Trade balance -68.9B vs est. -62B vs prior -66B showing the trade gap widened despite a drop in oil prices and a stronger dollar. Imports of goods and services +2.7% to a record $176.4 billion while exports +1.7% to $107.5 billion, the second-highest on record.
Accounting for the 2.9B increase in deficit, the volume of crude imports +9.3%, valued at $17B, the second-highest on record. Imports of energy-related petroleum products, a wider category that includes propane and butane, hit a record $26B.
Crude oil inventories +900K barrels vs est. -1.5M; Gasoline inventories +1.8M vs est. +1M; Distillates -100K vs est. +800K; showing less draw on crude and gasoline, but an unexpected draw in distillates, energy futures pulled back.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
12 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 11 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 10 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 9 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 8 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
7 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 6 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 5 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 4 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
2 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. Last week, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. Mon, a split tape day DJIA -11. Tues, DJIA +56 with improved internals and higher volume. Today, a split tape and internals day, DJIA +60. This week DJIA +105, over the last 12 weeks DJIA +179.
DJUA, DJTA, MID & XOI leading the way up, RUT weak, XAU pounded, SOX & NDX down. CAC & DAX down, FTSE up, Hang Seng up, Nikkei 225 down BIG.
Dollar down BIG vs. Euro & Yen , XAU & gold down BIG @ 507, XOI up & crude down @ 60.67, CRB commodities down. Contra trend: $, CRB, crude & gold all down.
Bonds up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.45% & the 30 year @ 4.66. The 2 & 5 year @ zero basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 9 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 21 basis points.
Sectors: Airlines, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Services, Energy, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Retail, Tobacco, Transports, Utilities, Banking up nicely. Gold Bugs, Biotech & Semis down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 15 CPI, Initial Claims, NY Empire Index, Net Foreign Purchases, Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production; Dec 16 Current Account.
Today the SP500 made a new 52 week high, and with regard to oil futures, thats four straight days the market behaves like it should.
From yesterday: "Clueless investors swallowed the hook (FOMC spin), with the exception of mid and small caps, someone is paying attention." Today, mid caps went along with the market, but the small caps are still lagging.
Tomorrows CPI will probably be tame, net foreign purchases perhaps a decrease, capacity utilization will show little slack and will be ignored by the media and the market.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, Export prices ex-ag at -0.9% vs prior +0.7%; as nonagricultural export prices posted their biggest decline on records dating to January 1989.
Import prices ex-oil at -0.2% vs prior +0.9%, falling an unexpectedly large 1.7% last month on the back of the biggest decline in the cost of petroleum imports in almost a year and a stronger dollar.
Trade balance -68.9B vs est. -62B vs prior -66B showing the trade gap widened despite a drop in oil prices and a stronger dollar. Imports of goods and services +2.7% to a record $176.4 billion while exports +1.7% to $107.5 billion, the second-highest on record.
Accounting for the 2.9B increase in deficit, the volume of crude imports +9.3%, valued at $17B, the second-highest on record. Imports of energy-related petroleum products, a wider category that includes propane and butane, hit a record $26B.
Crude oil inventories +900K barrels vs est. -1.5M; Gasoline inventories +1.8M vs est. +1M; Distillates -100K vs est. +800K; showing less draw on crude and gasoline, but an unexpected draw in distillates, energy futures pulled back.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
12 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 11 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 10 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 9 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 8 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
7 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 6 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 5 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 4 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 3 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
2 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. Last week, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. Mon, a split tape day DJIA -11. Tues, DJIA +56 with improved internals and higher volume. Today, a split tape and internals day, DJIA +60. This week DJIA +105, over the last 12 weeks DJIA +179.
DJUA, DJTA, MID & XOI leading the way up, RUT weak, XAU pounded, SOX & NDX down. CAC & DAX down, FTSE up, Hang Seng up, Nikkei 225 down BIG.
Dollar down BIG vs. Euro & Yen , XAU & gold down BIG @ 507, XOI up & crude down @ 60.67, CRB commodities down. Contra trend: $, CRB, crude & gold all down.
Bonds up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.45% & the 30 year @ 4.66. The 2 & 5 year @ zero basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 9 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 21 basis points.
Sectors: Airlines, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Services, Energy, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Retail, Tobacco, Transports, Utilities, Banking up nicely. Gold Bugs, Biotech & Semis down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 15 CPI, Initial Claims, NY Empire Index, Net Foreign Purchases, Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production; Dec 16 Current Account.
Today the SP500 made a new 52 week high, and with regard to oil futures, thats four straight days the market behaves like it should.
From yesterday: "Clueless investors swallowed the hook (FOMC spin), with the exception of mid and small caps, someone is paying attention." Today, mid caps went along with the market, but the small caps are still lagging.
Tomorrows CPI will probably be tame, net foreign purchases perhaps a decrease, capacity utilization will show little slack and will be ignored by the media and the market.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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