Market Soapbox 12/29/05
Still on the road, quick and dirty...
Existing home sales slowing down and falling -1.7% to 6.97M, missing forecasts and marking the first sub 7.0M pace since March.
Today's 2 year bond auction was the last bond auction of the year, indirect bidder participation in the $20B auction at 30.6% compared to the previous 12 auction average of 34.9%.
DJIA -9 with so so internals on extremely thin trading and bleeding into the close. DJTA & XAU attempting to support. MID & RUT weak, SP500, XOI, NDX, NAZ & SOX down, a rebound in the greenback continues.
February crude futures contracts +1% today @ $60.45, unleaded gasoline jumping 3.7%, yet the Energy sector weak and negative on the day.
Yield curve flattened with bonds down, the 10 year yield rising @ 4.38% & the 30 year @ 4.53. 2 & 5 year gap @ -5 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 0 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 5 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 15 bp.
Looking ahead, no major bond auctions until Jan 11th. Quarterly reporting commences after Jan 15th, and results for tech and many others will NOT be pleasing with FASB GAAP numbers based on expensing of stock options.
From Yesterday: "the NDX bounced back above 1665 to close, keep your eyes on the latter number for support or lack thereof."
Today's bottom line is the NDX breached 1665 and the SP500 1260 on a closing basis.
Looking at the charts, we have formed triple tops, just like last year in Dec and the indices are out of synch.
Since 12/06 the NDX, SOX & NAZ turned down over the last 16 trading days from 1716 to 1665. The SP500, MID & RUT turned down 12/14.
However, the DJIA turned down on 11/25 and is on day 23 which would play out a 25 day cycle COB Tues. The Tech sector still has 9 trading days to play out, the S&P, mid and small caps have another 14 days.
This begs the question, who is leading who? We believe that crude futures are, and therefore we look to the energy sector and XOI who started down on the 15th and are 10 days into the cycle.
A look at Jan - May 05 charts might indicate where we are heading, or not. Following the XOI and tech it would seem that the current downturn might last another 9 trading days or so.
But then we have the question of quarterly reporting around Jan 15th and will it continue the downtrend?? Probably.
Hasta
Existing home sales slowing down and falling -1.7% to 6.97M, missing forecasts and marking the first sub 7.0M pace since March.
Today's 2 year bond auction was the last bond auction of the year, indirect bidder participation in the $20B auction at 30.6% compared to the previous 12 auction average of 34.9%.
DJIA -9 with so so internals on extremely thin trading and bleeding into the close. DJTA & XAU attempting to support. MID & RUT weak, SP500, XOI, NDX, NAZ & SOX down, a rebound in the greenback continues.
February crude futures contracts +1% today @ $60.45, unleaded gasoline jumping 3.7%, yet the Energy sector weak and negative on the day.
Yield curve flattened with bonds down, the 10 year yield rising @ 4.38% & the 30 year @ 4.53. 2 & 5 year gap @ -5 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 0 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 5 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 15 bp.
Looking ahead, no major bond auctions until Jan 11th. Quarterly reporting commences after Jan 15th, and results for tech and many others will NOT be pleasing with FASB GAAP numbers based on expensing of stock options.
From Yesterday: "the NDX bounced back above 1665 to close, keep your eyes on the latter number for support or lack thereof."
Today's bottom line is the NDX breached 1665 and the SP500 1260 on a closing basis.
Looking at the charts, we have formed triple tops, just like last year in Dec and the indices are out of synch.
Since 12/06 the NDX, SOX & NAZ turned down over the last 16 trading days from 1716 to 1665. The SP500, MID & RUT turned down 12/14.
However, the DJIA turned down on 11/25 and is on day 23 which would play out a 25 day cycle COB Tues. The Tech sector still has 9 trading days to play out, the S&P, mid and small caps have another 14 days.
This begs the question, who is leading who? We believe that crude futures are, and therefore we look to the energy sector and XOI who started down on the 15th and are 10 days into the cycle.
A look at Jan - May 05 charts might indicate where we are heading, or not. Following the XOI and tech it would seem that the current downturn might last another 9 trading days or so.
But then we have the question of quarterly reporting around Jan 15th and will it continue the downtrend?? Probably.
Hasta
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