Market Soapbox 12/30/05
Still on the road, quick and dirty...
The last trading day of the year, 2005 will mark the DJIA's first loss since 2002, while the S&P 500 will post its smallest gain during an up year since 1987.
Deal with the devil? ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, and Amerada Hess have re-entered Libya after 19 years. I meant for Khadafi Duck...
DJIA -70 in a thinly traded broadbased sell off with miserable internals. XOI, Energy, Natural Gas, Oil Services & Oil up, everything else down. European and Asian indices pounded down. Dollar flat and gold up at $518.
February crude futures contracts +1.2% today @ $61.04, unleaded gasoline +3.25% advancing 7% in two days, yet the Energy sector and broader market diverged for a second consecutive day.
Yield curve flattened with bonds down, the 10 year yield rising @ 4.39% & the 30 year @ 4.54. 6 month & 5 year gap @ -1 bp; 2 & 5 year gap @ -5 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ -1 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 4 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 15 bp.
From yesterday: "Today's bottom line is the NDX breached 1665 and the SP500 1260 on a closing basis."
The big elephants left tracks when portfolio adjustments occured Tues and the DJIA tanked over 100 points on extremely low volume.
Observations: DJIA is now sitting on 10700 support, NAZ sitting on 2200, NDX about 1650, SP500 about 1250. Additional portfolio adjustment occurred today and we will see major in and out flows on Tuesday.
From yesterday: "A look at Jan - May 05 charts might indicate where we are heading, or not. Following the XOI and tech it would seem that the current downturn might last another 9 trading days or so."
Not so fast, Joe. Just when you think your safe... next Tuesday may hold a surprise, and we can make a case for it. In 00, new year dip then pop up till mid Jan, then drop till mid March. In 01, new year dip then pop, then sideways until drop in March.
In 02, pre new year dip, new year pop, then dip till late Jan, then pop till mid March, then sideways and drop till late July. In 03, rally continued till mid Jan, then drop till mid Mar.
In 04, rally continued till Feb 19th, then drop till late March. In 05, new year drop lasting till Jan 25th, then pop up till March 7th, then drop down to market bottom mid April.
Futhermore, with the DJIA in day 24 of a downtrend and looking at any major indices chart from May 1st:
May UP, June DOWN, July UP, August DOWN, September UP, October DOWN, November UP, December DOWN. This leaves January UP???
An up trend runs counter to the New Year post Santa Rally drop we saw in 05, and late January quarterly reporting stock options expensing scenario we have previously discussed.
But it runs with the last five years (excepting 05) pop up pattern and current monthly alternation pattern. Thus we could see another pop up, before we drop.
Are you throughly confused now?? Have a Happy, Safe and Healthy New Year.
Hasta
The last trading day of the year, 2005 will mark the DJIA's first loss since 2002, while the S&P 500 will post its smallest gain during an up year since 1987.
Deal with the devil? ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, and Amerada Hess have re-entered Libya after 19 years. I meant for Khadafi Duck...
DJIA -70 in a thinly traded broadbased sell off with miserable internals. XOI, Energy, Natural Gas, Oil Services & Oil up, everything else down. European and Asian indices pounded down. Dollar flat and gold up at $518.
February crude futures contracts +1.2% today @ $61.04, unleaded gasoline +3.25% advancing 7% in two days, yet the Energy sector and broader market diverged for a second consecutive day.
Yield curve flattened with bonds down, the 10 year yield rising @ 4.39% & the 30 year @ 4.54. 6 month & 5 year gap @ -1 bp; 2 & 5 year gap @ -5 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ -1 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 4 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 15 bp.
From yesterday: "Today's bottom line is the NDX breached 1665 and the SP500 1260 on a closing basis."
The big elephants left tracks when portfolio adjustments occured Tues and the DJIA tanked over 100 points on extremely low volume.
Observations: DJIA is now sitting on 10700 support, NAZ sitting on 2200, NDX about 1650, SP500 about 1250. Additional portfolio adjustment occurred today and we will see major in and out flows on Tuesday.
From yesterday: "A look at Jan - May 05 charts might indicate where we are heading, or not. Following the XOI and tech it would seem that the current downturn might last another 9 trading days or so."
Not so fast, Joe. Just when you think your safe... next Tuesday may hold a surprise, and we can make a case for it. In 00, new year dip then pop up till mid Jan, then drop till mid March. In 01, new year dip then pop, then sideways until drop in March.
In 02, pre new year dip, new year pop, then dip till late Jan, then pop till mid March, then sideways and drop till late July. In 03, rally continued till mid Jan, then drop till mid Mar.
In 04, rally continued till Feb 19th, then drop till late March. In 05, new year drop lasting till Jan 25th, then pop up till March 7th, then drop down to market bottom mid April.
Futhermore, with the DJIA in day 24 of a downtrend and looking at any major indices chart from May 1st:
May UP, June DOWN, July UP, August DOWN, September UP, October DOWN, November UP, December DOWN. This leaves January UP???
An up trend runs counter to the New Year post Santa Rally drop we saw in 05, and late January quarterly reporting stock options expensing scenario we have previously discussed.
But it runs with the last five years (excepting 05) pop up pattern and current monthly alternation pattern. Thus we could see another pop up, before we drop.
Are you throughly confused now?? Have a Happy, Safe and Healthy New Year.
Hasta
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