Market Soapbox 01/03/06
Still on the road, quick and dirty...
Construction spending slowing down BIG +0.2% vs prior +0.8%; ISM down BIG 54.2 vs prior 58.1, the largest drop in 4 months.
But, the FOMC Minutes spin gives the market a big boost, DJIA +130 a broadbased rally with improved internals on higher volume.
Everything but Airlines & Transports popping up big. XOI +4.5%, XAU +6%, Semis +3%, MID & RUT up big. European and Asian indices all up. Oil up big 3.5% at 63.14, Natural Gas down another -5%, Dollar getting CRUSHED -1.5% and gold up BIG at $532.
Yield curve decompressing with bonds up, the 10 year yield falling @ 4.36% & the 30 year @ 4.55. 2 & 5 year gap @ -2 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 4 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 19 bp.
Upcoming reports: Jan 4: Auto & Truck Sales, Factory Orders; Jan 5: Initial Claims, ISM Services, EIA Crude; Jan 6: Non Farms Payroll & Unemployment.
From Friday: "Additional portfolio adjustment occurred today and we will see major in and out flows on Tuesday... with the DJIA in day 24 of a downtrend and looking at any major indices chart from May 1st:"
"May UP, June DOWN, July UP, August DOWN, September UP, October DOWN, November UP, December DOWN. This leaves January UP? ... this runs with the last five years (excepting 05) pop up pattern and current monthly alternation pattern. Thus we could see another pop up, before we drop."
It would appear we are getting that final pop as the media spin that rate increases are seen "nearing an end" threw the Bulls a bone today. Oil futures and the energy sector buoyed the market, while the dollar got crushed in a BIG contra day.
The old adage, "as January goes, so goes the year" we just might see it all this year.
Hasta
Construction spending slowing down BIG +0.2% vs prior +0.8%; ISM down BIG 54.2 vs prior 58.1, the largest drop in 4 months.
But, the FOMC Minutes spin gives the market a big boost, DJIA +130 a broadbased rally with improved internals on higher volume.
Everything but Airlines & Transports popping up big. XOI +4.5%, XAU +6%, Semis +3%, MID & RUT up big. European and Asian indices all up. Oil up big 3.5% at 63.14, Natural Gas down another -5%, Dollar getting CRUSHED -1.5% and gold up BIG at $532.
Yield curve decompressing with bonds up, the 10 year yield falling @ 4.36% & the 30 year @ 4.55. 2 & 5 year gap @ -2 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 4 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 19 bp.
Upcoming reports: Jan 4: Auto & Truck Sales, Factory Orders; Jan 5: Initial Claims, ISM Services, EIA Crude; Jan 6: Non Farms Payroll & Unemployment.
From Friday: "Additional portfolio adjustment occurred today and we will see major in and out flows on Tuesday... with the DJIA in day 24 of a downtrend and looking at any major indices chart from May 1st:"
"May UP, June DOWN, July UP, August DOWN, September UP, October DOWN, November UP, December DOWN. This leaves January UP? ... this runs with the last five years (excepting 05) pop up pattern and current monthly alternation pattern. Thus we could see another pop up, before we drop."
It would appear we are getting that final pop as the media spin that rate increases are seen "nearing an end" threw the Bulls a bone today. Oil futures and the energy sector buoyed the market, while the dollar got crushed in a BIG contra day.
The old adage, "as January goes, so goes the year" we just might see it all this year.
Hasta
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