Market Soapbox 01/06/06
Still on the road, quick and dirty...
Non Farm Payrolls in at 108K vs prior 305K vs est 200K, calming inflation fears and resulting in a breakout day to the upside WITH AUTHORITY on higher volume and fabulous internals DJIA +75.
XOI, XAU, MID, RUT, NDX, SOX leading the way up WITH AUTHORITY, the DJTA, transports, airlines, healthcare, biotech down. European and Asian indices up. Oil up BIG at 64.35 and the dollar got pounded down again.
Yield curve inverted bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.37% & the 30 year @ 4.56. 6 month & 10 year gap -0bp; 6 month & 2 year gap -3 bp; 2 & 5 year gap @ -4 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 3 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 19 bp.
Upcoming reports: Jan 9 Consumer Credit; Jan 10 Wholesale Inventories; Jan 11 EIA Crude; Jan 12 Export Prices ex ag, Import Prices ex oil, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, Treausury Budget; Jan 13 Business Inventories, PPI, Core PPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex auto.
From yesterday: "The SP500 hit a 4.5 year high yesterday, the MID an all time high today, the SOX near a long term high. These are psychological barriers that the market must pierce with conviction."
Oil futures soared and so did the market, a low non farms number eased inflation fears and turned it into a rocket ride with the NDX, SOX, NAZ, SP500, MID & RUT all piercing upper resistance on higher volume.
Have those who went to cash in Q4 begun piling back in? Will the rally continue with conviction? Or will this turn out to be a PPT (plunge protection team) effort which goes sour on profit taking and then gravity really takes its toll?
These and other questions will be answered Mon - Wend of next week as we look for further follow through and a low overdue decoupling of oil futures and the equity market. We are still watching 1746 NDX as a possible upside limit.
Hasta
Non Farm Payrolls in at 108K vs prior 305K vs est 200K, calming inflation fears and resulting in a breakout day to the upside WITH AUTHORITY on higher volume and fabulous internals DJIA +75.
XOI, XAU, MID, RUT, NDX, SOX leading the way up WITH AUTHORITY, the DJTA, transports, airlines, healthcare, biotech down. European and Asian indices up. Oil up BIG at 64.35 and the dollar got pounded down again.
Yield curve inverted bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.37% & the 30 year @ 4.56. 6 month & 10 year gap -0bp; 6 month & 2 year gap -3 bp; 2 & 5 year gap @ -4 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 3 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 19 bp.
Upcoming reports: Jan 9 Consumer Credit; Jan 10 Wholesale Inventories; Jan 11 EIA Crude; Jan 12 Export Prices ex ag, Import Prices ex oil, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, Treausury Budget; Jan 13 Business Inventories, PPI, Core PPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex auto.
From yesterday: "The SP500 hit a 4.5 year high yesterday, the MID an all time high today, the SOX near a long term high. These are psychological barriers that the market must pierce with conviction."
Oil futures soared and so did the market, a low non farms number eased inflation fears and turned it into a rocket ride with the NDX, SOX, NAZ, SP500, MID & RUT all piercing upper resistance on higher volume.
Have those who went to cash in Q4 begun piling back in? Will the rally continue with conviction? Or will this turn out to be a PPT (plunge protection team) effort which goes sour on profit taking and then gravity really takes its toll?
These and other questions will be answered Mon - Wend of next week as we look for further follow through and a low overdue decoupling of oil futures and the equity market. We are still watching 1746 NDX as a possible upside limit.
Hasta
Comments