Market Soapbox 01/25/06
DJIA 11050; SP500 1295; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1765
Support: DJIA 10550; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, for the week ending 01/20; EIA crude 319M with a - 2.3M draw vs prior +2.7M build.
Gasoline +3.13M build vs prior +2.8M build ; distillates +1.79M build vs prior +900K build. More in another post today.
Existing home sales -5.7% @ 6.60M vs prior 7M; combined with this months recent housing starts -8.8%; building permit data -4.3% and last months new home sales -11.3% shows a marked slowing. Homebuilders were pounded down.
This will be reiterated by this months new home sales on 01/27, the question remains, is this a seasonal fluctuation or the beginning of a larger trend? The bond market and interest rates will tell.
Speak of the devil, todays $22B auction in two year notes drew meager demand as did yesterdays 20 year TIPS auction, particularly from indirect bidders.
Foreign central banks took 24.5% compared to the 34.62% average of 2005's 12 two-year note auctions. Bonds got pounded again and yields went up.
18 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 17 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 16 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 15 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 14 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
13 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 12 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 11 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 10 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
8 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 7 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 6 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 5 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 4 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
3 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. 2 weeks ago DJIA Flat +0. Last week DJIA -292 on broadbased selling. Mon, a flat sideways day DJIA +21 on lower volume with improved internals. Tues, an up day DJIA +23 on lower volume with decent internals.
Today, an weak sideways day DJIA -2 on higher volume with ugly internals.This week DJIA +42, over the last 18 weeks DJIA +5, over the last three weeks DJIA -8.
DJTA, DJUA, NDX, MID, RUT & XOI down. XAU up. CAC, DAX & FTSE all up nicely, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 flat.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Networking, Pharma, Telecom & Tobacco up nicely. Biotech, Natural Gas, Oil, Transports, Utilities & Commodity slapped down.
Dollar up vs. Yen 1.1491 & Euro 1.2291 , XAU & gold up @ 562.50, XOI & crude down BIG -1.8% @ 65.85, CRB commodities down, natural gas -2.4% and gasoline -4%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds down BIG with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.65%; 10 yr @ 4.47; 5 yr @ 4.40; 2yr @ 4.44; 6mo @ 4.53; 3mo @ 4.44. 6mo above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 26 Durable Orders; Initial Claims; Jan 27 Chain Deflator; New Home Sales; GDP.
Reporting: Thurs. Nokia; Caterpillar; Marathon Oil; Dow Chemical; Microsoft; Eastman Chemical; GM; Halliburton; Lockheed Martin; Honeywell; Alaska Air; Amgen; Hartford Financial; ATT; IndyMac; Siemens; Sony; Eli Lilly; Verizon. Fri. Black & Decker; Chevron; Proctor & Gamble.
Yesterday: "Tomorrows oil company reports could buoy the market upward, along with the EIA inventories expectation of a build, which would knock futures down further."
Today, the impressive oil profit reports did save the energy sector from profit taking. Intraday, the XOI hit an all time high of 1118.63 and the RUT hit an all time high of 720.30. Despite an inventory draw, crude futures were off 1.5%? Strangeways indeed.
The last two days of bond auctions have drained market liquidity. With lowered foreign bank participation, primary dealers and the PPT (plunge protection team) have been forced to divert funds to save a falling bond market. We believe tomorrow they will be back into equities in force.
We also believe that the 5 week period ending Feb 3rd will have the DJIA above 10718. Starting Feb 6th a severe downward trend for 5 weeks may play out ending around March 9th.
The FOMC 25bps bump Jan 31st & 3, 10 & new 30 year auctions on Feb 7, 8, 9 should give a nice downhill shove to equities. The bond market will also continue to suffer and interest rates will keep rising.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10550; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, for the week ending 01/20; EIA crude 319M with a - 2.3M draw vs prior +2.7M build.
Gasoline +3.13M build vs prior +2.8M build ; distillates +1.79M build vs prior +900K build. More in another post today.
Existing home sales -5.7% @ 6.60M vs prior 7M; combined with this months recent housing starts -8.8%; building permit data -4.3% and last months new home sales -11.3% shows a marked slowing. Homebuilders were pounded down.
This will be reiterated by this months new home sales on 01/27, the question remains, is this a seasonal fluctuation or the beginning of a larger trend? The bond market and interest rates will tell.
Speak of the devil, todays $22B auction in two year notes drew meager demand as did yesterdays 20 year TIPS auction, particularly from indirect bidders.
Foreign central banks took 24.5% compared to the 34.62% average of 2005's 12 two-year note auctions. Bonds got pounded again and yields went up.
18 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 17 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 16 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 15 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 14 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
13 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 12 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 11 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 10 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
8 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 7 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 6 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 5 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 4 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
3 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. 2 weeks ago DJIA Flat +0. Last week DJIA -292 on broadbased selling. Mon, a flat sideways day DJIA +21 on lower volume with improved internals. Tues, an up day DJIA +23 on lower volume with decent internals.
Today, an weak sideways day DJIA -2 on higher volume with ugly internals.This week DJIA +42, over the last 18 weeks DJIA +5, over the last three weeks DJIA -8.
DJTA, DJUA, NDX, MID, RUT & XOI down. XAU up. CAC, DAX & FTSE all up nicely, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 flat.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Networking, Pharma, Telecom & Tobacco up nicely. Biotech, Natural Gas, Oil, Transports, Utilities & Commodity slapped down.
Dollar up vs. Yen 1.1491 & Euro 1.2291 , XAU & gold up @ 562.50, XOI & crude down BIG -1.8% @ 65.85, CRB commodities down, natural gas -2.4% and gasoline -4%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds down BIG with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.65%; 10 yr @ 4.47; 5 yr @ 4.40; 2yr @ 4.44; 6mo @ 4.53; 3mo @ 4.44. 6mo above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 26 Durable Orders; Initial Claims; Jan 27 Chain Deflator; New Home Sales; GDP.
Reporting: Thurs. Nokia; Caterpillar; Marathon Oil; Dow Chemical; Microsoft; Eastman Chemical; GM; Halliburton; Lockheed Martin; Honeywell; Alaska Air; Amgen; Hartford Financial; ATT; IndyMac; Siemens; Sony; Eli Lilly; Verizon. Fri. Black & Decker; Chevron; Proctor & Gamble.
Yesterday: "Tomorrows oil company reports could buoy the market upward, along with the EIA inventories expectation of a build, which would knock futures down further."
Today, the impressive oil profit reports did save the energy sector from profit taking. Intraday, the XOI hit an all time high of 1118.63 and the RUT hit an all time high of 720.30. Despite an inventory draw, crude futures were off 1.5%? Strangeways indeed.
The last two days of bond auctions have drained market liquidity. With lowered foreign bank participation, primary dealers and the PPT (plunge protection team) have been forced to divert funds to save a falling bond market. We believe tomorrow they will be back into equities in force.
We also believe that the 5 week period ending Feb 3rd will have the DJIA above 10718. Starting Feb 6th a severe downward trend for 5 weeks may play out ending around March 9th.
The FOMC 25bps bump Jan 31st & 3, 10 & new 30 year auctions on Feb 7, 8, 9 should give a nice downhill shove to equities. The bond market will also continue to suffer and interest rates will keep rising.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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