Market Soapbox 01/26/06
DJIA 11050; SP500 1295; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1765
Support: DJIA 10550; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, quarterly reports from ATT, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, Textron and Caterpillar were glowing while GM, Qualcomm, Dow Chemical and Unisys disappointed as expected.
Kirk Kerkorian chasing GMAC raised his stake from 7.8% to 9.9% of GM. It seems that outside of select tech issues, the stock options expensing has not had a noticable effect on valuations.
Initial Claims 283K vs prior 272K; Durable Orders with a 3rd consecutive increase +1.3% vs revised up to +5.4% from prior 4.4%; Ex-transportation orders rebounded +0.9% while ex-defence orders +0.8%.
Machinery products, a 6.5% rise in orders accounting for two-thirds of the overall monthly increase. Durable goods production grew at an annual rate in excess of 13% in Q4. Get ready for some real inflation and higher rates, read today's related post.
18 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 17 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 16 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 15 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 14 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
13 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 12 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 11 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 10 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
8 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 7 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 6 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 5 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 4 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
3 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. 2 weeks ago DJIA Flat +0. Last week DJIA -292 on broadbased selling.
Mon, a flat sideways day DJIA +21 on lower volume with improved internals. Tues, an up day DJIA +23 on lower volume with decent internals. Wen, a weak sideways day DJIA -2 on higher volume with ugly internals.
Today, a broadbased up surge DJIA +100 on higher volume with nice internals. This week DJIA +142, over the last 18 weeks DJIA +105, over the last three weeks DJIA +92.
NAZ, DJTA, NYSE, MID, SOX, XAU & RUT leading up BIG. DJUA down. CAC & DAX up BIG, FTSE up, Hang Seng flat & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Biotech, Telecom, Brokers, Transports, Commodity, Cyclical, Healtcare, Semis, Tech & Banking up nicely. Airlines, Natural Gas, Networking & Utilities slapped down.
Dollar up vs. Yen 1.1491 & Euro 1.2291 , XAU up & gold down @ 559.9, XOI & crude up @ 66.26, CRB commodities up, natural gas -1.6% and gasoline +1.5%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds down BIG (3rd day) with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.69%; 10 yr @ 4.51; 5 yr @ 4.43; 2yr @ 4.47; 6mo @ 4.53; 3mo @ 4.44. 6mo above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 27 New Home Sales; Advance Chain Deflator & GDP. Reporting: Fri. Black & Decker; Chevron; Proctor & Gamble.
Yesterday: "Starting Feb 6th a severe downward trend for 5 weeks may play out ending around March 9th." Perhaps it could start as early at next Tues 31st after Fed Funds is bumped to 4.50%, depending on Friday GDP & the verbiage of the FOMC announcement.
"The bond market will... continue to suffer and interest rates will keep rising.... primary dealers and the PPT (plunge protection team) have been forced to divert funds to save a falling bond market. We believe tomorrow they will be back into equities in force." Boy were they ever as the market jumped.
Today, the RUT hit an all time high and XBD (brokerage index) a 52 week high. Keep your eyes tomorrow on advance GDP & Chain deflator and Tues FOMC, these should be major market movers. More market commentary in todays other post.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10550; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, quarterly reports from ATT, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, Textron and Caterpillar were glowing while GM, Qualcomm, Dow Chemical and Unisys disappointed as expected.
Kirk Kerkorian chasing GMAC raised his stake from 7.8% to 9.9% of GM. It seems that outside of select tech issues, the stock options expensing has not had a noticable effect on valuations.
Initial Claims 283K vs prior 272K; Durable Orders with a 3rd consecutive increase +1.3% vs revised up to +5.4% from prior 4.4%; Ex-transportation orders rebounded +0.9% while ex-defence orders +0.8%.
Machinery products, a 6.5% rise in orders accounting for two-thirds of the overall monthly increase. Durable goods production grew at an annual rate in excess of 13% in Q4. Get ready for some real inflation and higher rates, read today's related post.
18 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 17 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 16 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 15 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 14 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
13 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 12 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 11 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 10 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
8 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 7 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 6 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 5 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 4 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
3 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. 2 weeks ago DJIA Flat +0. Last week DJIA -292 on broadbased selling.
Mon, a flat sideways day DJIA +21 on lower volume with improved internals. Tues, an up day DJIA +23 on lower volume with decent internals. Wen, a weak sideways day DJIA -2 on higher volume with ugly internals.
Today, a broadbased up surge DJIA +100 on higher volume with nice internals. This week DJIA +142, over the last 18 weeks DJIA +105, over the last three weeks DJIA +92.
NAZ, DJTA, NYSE, MID, SOX, XAU & RUT leading up BIG. DJUA down. CAC & DAX up BIG, FTSE up, Hang Seng flat & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Biotech, Telecom, Brokers, Transports, Commodity, Cyclical, Healtcare, Semis, Tech & Banking up nicely. Airlines, Natural Gas, Networking & Utilities slapped down.
Dollar up vs. Yen 1.1491 & Euro 1.2291 , XAU up & gold down @ 559.9, XOI & crude up @ 66.26, CRB commodities up, natural gas -1.6% and gasoline +1.5%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds down BIG (3rd day) with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.69%; 10 yr @ 4.51; 5 yr @ 4.43; 2yr @ 4.47; 6mo @ 4.53; 3mo @ 4.44. 6mo above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 27 New Home Sales; Advance Chain Deflator & GDP. Reporting: Fri. Black & Decker; Chevron; Proctor & Gamble.
Yesterday: "Starting Feb 6th a severe downward trend for 5 weeks may play out ending around March 9th." Perhaps it could start as early at next Tues 31st after Fed Funds is bumped to 4.50%, depending on Friday GDP & the verbiage of the FOMC announcement.
"The bond market will... continue to suffer and interest rates will keep rising.... primary dealers and the PPT (plunge protection team) have been forced to divert funds to save a falling bond market. We believe tomorrow they will be back into equities in force." Boy were they ever as the market jumped.
Today, the RUT hit an all time high and XBD (brokerage index) a 52 week high. Keep your eyes tomorrow on advance GDP & Chain deflator and Tues FOMC, these should be major market movers. More market commentary in todays other post.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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