Market Soapbox 01/27/06
Resistance: DJIA 10950; SP500 1285; Nasdaq 2315; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10850; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2265; NDX 1695
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, afterhours Microsoft pleased and afterhours volume Nasdaq +50%, AMEX & NYSE +100%, causing an 8.5 point NDX gap up. Today P&G, Halliburton and Chevron exceeded expectations.
New Home Sales @ 1269K vs prior 1233K, people are rushing before interest rates get any higher; Advance Chain Deflator @ +3.0% vs prior +3.3%; GDP @ +1.1% vs prior +4.1% showing that inflation is growing despite an overall slowing in economic activity during Q4.
The slow down in Q4 GDP calmed inflation fears and sent the market on a tear. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 up 3.8% on news that Japan's consumer prices had the first back-to-back gain since April 1998. The BOJ will raise rates.
18 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 17 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 16 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 15 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 14 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
13 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 12 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 11 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 10 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
8 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 7 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 6 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 5 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 4 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
3 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. 2 weeks ago DJIA Flat +0. Last week DJIA -292 on broadbased selling.
Mon, a flat sideways day DJIA +21 on lower volume. Tues, an up day DJIA +23 on lower volume. Wen, a weak sideways day DJIA -2 on higher volume. Thurs, a broadbased up surge DJIA +100 on higher volume.
Today, up with AUTHORITY DJIA +98 on higher volume with pretty internals This week DJIA +240, over the last 18 weeks DJIA +203, over the last three weeks DJIA +190.
NAZ, NDX, SOX & XOI leading up BIG. DJTA weak. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 all up BIG. Sectors: Airlines, Disk Drive & Banking down. Tech, Semis, Healthcare, Cyclical, Commodity, Pharma & Oil up BIG.
Dollar up BIG vs. Yen 1.1663 & Euro 1.2135 , XAU up & gold down @ 558.8, XOI & crude up +2.2% @ 67.76, CRB commodities up, unleaded +2.7%, natural gas +1%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds down (4th day) with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.69%; 10 yr @ 4.51; 5 yr @ 4.44; 2yr @ 4.49; 6mo @ 4.54; 3mo @ 4.44. 6mo above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 30: Personal Income & Spending; Jan 31: Employment Cost, Chicago PMI, FOMC Statement, Consumer Confidence; Feb 1: Auto & Truck Sales, Construction Spending, ISM Index, EIA Crude; Feb 2: Initial Claims, Productivity; Feb 3: Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment, Mich Sentiment, Factory Orders, ISM Services.
Reporting: Mon. AFLAC, Canon, Cummins, Eastman Kodak, Exxon Mobil, Gilead, Honda, Kraft Foods, Sanyo, Schering Plough, SYSCO, Tyson Foods, Valero,
Yesterday: "Perhaps (a downtrend) could start as early at next Tues 31st after Fed Funds is bumped to 4.50%, depending on the verbiage of the FOMC announcement.... The bond market will... continue to suffer and interest rates will keep rising"
As stated a few days ago, we will close DJIA above 10718 on Jan 31st for an UP month. Yesterday, DJTA hit an all time high. Today, NYSE, MID, RUT & XOI made all time highs. XAU at a high not seen since 06/03/96. SOX intraday hit 559.60 near the 560.68 high from 01/12/04.
Bonds should continue to head south, equities could catch a bigger lift if it is interpreted that the Fed is softening its verbiage. If there is no change, stocks could suffer. People are hanging in long over the weekend.
We see potential for consolidation Mon or Tues Jan 31st with the FOMC statement. Any potential downtrend could also be delayed until the bond auctions start Feb 7th or in the extreme, even until around March 7th.
We are watching NDX 1730 and SP500 1285 as resistance on this latest upsurge, should we break to the upside on higher volume and also pierce 1295 SP500, we would look to NDX 1795 as a climax.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10850; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2265; NDX 1695
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, afterhours Microsoft pleased and afterhours volume Nasdaq +50%, AMEX & NYSE +100%, causing an 8.5 point NDX gap up. Today P&G, Halliburton and Chevron exceeded expectations.
New Home Sales @ 1269K vs prior 1233K, people are rushing before interest rates get any higher; Advance Chain Deflator @ +3.0% vs prior +3.3%; GDP @ +1.1% vs prior +4.1% showing that inflation is growing despite an overall slowing in economic activity during Q4.
The slow down in Q4 GDP calmed inflation fears and sent the market on a tear. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 up 3.8% on news that Japan's consumer prices had the first back-to-back gain since April 1998. The BOJ will raise rates.
18 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 17 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 16 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 15 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 14 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
13 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 12 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 11 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 10 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
8 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 7 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 6 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 5 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 4 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
3 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. 2 weeks ago DJIA Flat +0. Last week DJIA -292 on broadbased selling.
Mon, a flat sideways day DJIA +21 on lower volume. Tues, an up day DJIA +23 on lower volume. Wen, a weak sideways day DJIA -2 on higher volume. Thurs, a broadbased up surge DJIA +100 on higher volume.
Today, up with AUTHORITY DJIA +98 on higher volume with pretty internals This week DJIA +240, over the last 18 weeks DJIA +203, over the last three weeks DJIA +190.
NAZ, NDX, SOX & XOI leading up BIG. DJTA weak. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 all up BIG. Sectors: Airlines, Disk Drive & Banking down. Tech, Semis, Healthcare, Cyclical, Commodity, Pharma & Oil up BIG.
Dollar up BIG vs. Yen 1.1663 & Euro 1.2135 , XAU up & gold down @ 558.8, XOI & crude up +2.2% @ 67.76, CRB commodities up, unleaded +2.7%, natural gas +1%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds down (4th day) with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.69%; 10 yr @ 4.51; 5 yr @ 4.44; 2yr @ 4.49; 6mo @ 4.54; 3mo @ 4.44. 6mo above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 30: Personal Income & Spending; Jan 31: Employment Cost, Chicago PMI, FOMC Statement, Consumer Confidence; Feb 1: Auto & Truck Sales, Construction Spending, ISM Index, EIA Crude; Feb 2: Initial Claims, Productivity; Feb 3: Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment, Mich Sentiment, Factory Orders, ISM Services.
Reporting: Mon. AFLAC, Canon, Cummins, Eastman Kodak, Exxon Mobil, Gilead, Honda, Kraft Foods, Sanyo, Schering Plough, SYSCO, Tyson Foods, Valero,
Yesterday: "Perhaps (a downtrend) could start as early at next Tues 31st after Fed Funds is bumped to 4.50%, depending on the verbiage of the FOMC announcement.... The bond market will... continue to suffer and interest rates will keep rising"
As stated a few days ago, we will close DJIA above 10718 on Jan 31st for an UP month. Yesterday, DJTA hit an all time high. Today, NYSE, MID, RUT & XOI made all time highs. XAU at a high not seen since 06/03/96. SOX intraday hit 559.60 near the 560.68 high from 01/12/04.
Bonds should continue to head south, equities could catch a bigger lift if it is interpreted that the Fed is softening its verbiage. If there is no change, stocks could suffer. People are hanging in long over the weekend.
We see potential for consolidation Mon or Tues Jan 31st with the FOMC statement. Any potential downtrend could also be delayed until the bond auctions start Feb 7th or in the extreme, even until around March 7th.
We are watching NDX 1730 and SP500 1285 as resistance on this latest upsurge, should we break to the upside on higher volume and also pierce 1295 SP500, we would look to NDX 1795 as a climax.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Comments