ISM, Construction Spending & PCE
Construction Spending +0.2% vs prior +1.0%; housing starts where up last week 14.5% but spending is pulling back, sounds like someone is in a rush to break ground, but can't get the sticks up.
Meanwhile, ISM Index 56.6 vs prior 54.8; Inside the number: 33 straight months of growth in the factory sector, but the first increase after 3 months of decline.
The employment index +3.7% to 55.0% from 51.3% showing an increase in hiring. New orders +3.9% to 61.9% in February from 58.0% showing an increase in new orders.
Inventories +3.1% to 49.6% from 46.5% showing a slowing in liquidation. Customer Inventories +2.5% to 48.5% from 46% showing a rise in customer inventory.
Backlogs of orders+1% to 54.5% from 53.5% showing a growth in backlogs. The price index -2.5% to 62.5% from 65.0% showing a drop in prices paid.
The economic slack is thin and the potential for additional inflation abounds.
Full ISM Report
January Personal Income +0.7% vs prior +0.5%; Personal Spending +0.9% vs prior +0.7%; Inside the number: Core PCE +0.2%, but Personal Consumption Expenditures +0.9% vs Dec +0.7% vs Nov +0.5% vs Oct +0.2%
Can you say inflation is SCREAMING? I can and so can the Commerce Department which said inflation eroded most of the income gains for U.S. residents in January, with real disposable incomes up 0.1%.
Personal saving negative -0.7% vs prior -0.4%. Percentage price changes YOY: durable goods +6.3%, non durable goods +5%, services +2.4%.
And the really scary part, Total PCE Q405 $83.9B vs Q305 $167B, durable goods went from $15.4B to negative -$48.7B, non durable goods dropped from $71.2B to $38.2B while services increased from $80.5B to $94.3B. Can you say squeezed consumer, I can.
A continued pullback in spending would grind the economy to a halt and increase economic slack. This could occur latently while the Fed continues to raise due to energy pass through and Gulf reconstruction efforts.
Full PCE Report
Meanwhile, ISM Index 56.6 vs prior 54.8; Inside the number: 33 straight months of growth in the factory sector, but the first increase after 3 months of decline.
The employment index +3.7% to 55.0% from 51.3% showing an increase in hiring. New orders +3.9% to 61.9% in February from 58.0% showing an increase in new orders.
Inventories +3.1% to 49.6% from 46.5% showing a slowing in liquidation. Customer Inventories +2.5% to 48.5% from 46% showing a rise in customer inventory.
Backlogs of orders+1% to 54.5% from 53.5% showing a growth in backlogs. The price index -2.5% to 62.5% from 65.0% showing a drop in prices paid.
The economic slack is thin and the potential for additional inflation abounds.
Full ISM Report
January Personal Income +0.7% vs prior +0.5%; Personal Spending +0.9% vs prior +0.7%; Inside the number: Core PCE +0.2%, but Personal Consumption Expenditures +0.9% vs Dec +0.7% vs Nov +0.5% vs Oct +0.2%
Can you say inflation is SCREAMING? I can and so can the Commerce Department which said inflation eroded most of the income gains for U.S. residents in January, with real disposable incomes up 0.1%.
Personal saving negative -0.7% vs prior -0.4%. Percentage price changes YOY: durable goods +6.3%, non durable goods +5%, services +2.4%.
And the really scary part, Total PCE Q405 $83.9B vs Q305 $167B, durable goods went from $15.4B to negative -$48.7B, non durable goods dropped from $71.2B to $38.2B while services increased from $80.5B to $94.3B. Can you say squeezed consumer, I can.
A continued pullback in spending would grind the economy to a halt and increase economic slack. This could occur latently while the Fed continues to raise due to energy pass through and Gulf reconstruction efforts.
Full PCE Report
Comments