Market Soapbox 03/02/06
Resistance: DJIA 11170; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10900; SP500 1280; Nasdaq 2260; NDX 1665
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, between tomorrow and March 15th we will be scarce, duty calls, but we shall endeavour to report.
The media hyped bonds getting beat under speculation that the ECB will bump 25bps twice more to 3% by year end. The 10yr hit 4.64, its highest since November.
How is 3% more attractive than 4.50? Something else is afoot. Sniff, Sniff. We smell four more Fed bumps to 5.5, not 5% by year end.
Recent DJIA History: 23 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 22 weeks +148, 21 weeks -281, 20 weeks -6, 19 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 18 weeks recovery begins +186, 17 weeks +128, 16 weeks +154, 15 weeks +79, 14 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
13 weeks -53, 12 weeks -99, 11 weeks +99, 10 weeks +8. 9 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 8 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 7 weeks +0, 6 weeks -292, 5 weeks +240, 4 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 3 weeks DJIA +125, 2 weeks DJIA +196, Last week DJIA -52.
Mon, DJIA +36 leaking into the close on lower volume with decent internals. Tues, DJIA -104 in a broadbased selloff on higher volume with horrible internals. Wen, a bounce DJIA +60 on average volume with pretty internals.
Today, DJIA -28 rebounding into the close on lower volume with midlin internals, this week DJIA -36, over the last 4 weeks DJIA +233, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +323.
MID, RUT, DJTA down, DJUA, NDX & NYSE staying level, SOX, XOI & XAU up. CAC & DAX down, FTSE up, Hang Seng up & Nikkei 225 down.
Gold Bugs, Natural Gas, Networking, Energy, Oil & Commodity up. Airlines, Transports, Cyclical & Banking down.
Dollar down vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold up @ 570.4, XOI & crude up 2.2% @ 63.36, CRB commodities up. Unleaded +4.3%
Yield curve MAJOR INVERSION bonds down BIG with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.62%; 10 yr @ 4.63; 5 yr @ 4.67; 2yr @ 4.72; 6mo @ 4.74. In a full tilt boogey, 2yr is above the 30 year since 02/09.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 3 ISM Services, Mich Sentiment; Mar 6 Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales; Mar 7 Q4 Productivity, Consumer Credit.
Mar 8 EIA Inventories, Options Unwind; Mar 9 BOE announcement, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, 10 yr note auction; Mar 10 Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Treasury Budget, Wholesale Inventories.
Yesterday: "The schizo herks and jerks which are getting bigger and more frequent are not a healthy sign. We patiently watch, tomorrow is D Day for the yield curve inversion and we await March 8th-10th."
As we will be scarce till the 15th, we leave you with this: March 7th will be 10 weeks since the 2 yr note went above the 10 yr. March 9th will be 4 weeks since the 2 yr went above the 30 yr.
March 8 - 16th as well as April 14th - 21st should be inflection points for the market. The downside potential is substantial, careful observation and risk mitigation is necessary.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10900; SP500 1280; Nasdaq 2260; NDX 1665
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, between tomorrow and March 15th we will be scarce, duty calls, but we shall endeavour to report.
The media hyped bonds getting beat under speculation that the ECB will bump 25bps twice more to 3% by year end. The 10yr hit 4.64, its highest since November.
How is 3% more attractive than 4.50? Something else is afoot. Sniff, Sniff. We smell four more Fed bumps to 5.5, not 5% by year end.
Recent DJIA History: 23 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 22 weeks +148, 21 weeks -281, 20 weeks -6, 19 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 18 weeks recovery begins +186, 17 weeks +128, 16 weeks +154, 15 weeks +79, 14 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
13 weeks -53, 12 weeks -99, 11 weeks +99, 10 weeks +8. 9 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 8 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 7 weeks +0, 6 weeks -292, 5 weeks +240, 4 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 3 weeks DJIA +125, 2 weeks DJIA +196, Last week DJIA -52.
Mon, DJIA +36 leaking into the close on lower volume with decent internals. Tues, DJIA -104 in a broadbased selloff on higher volume with horrible internals. Wen, a bounce DJIA +60 on average volume with pretty internals.
Today, DJIA -28 rebounding into the close on lower volume with midlin internals, this week DJIA -36, over the last 4 weeks DJIA +233, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +323.
MID, RUT, DJTA down, DJUA, NDX & NYSE staying level, SOX, XOI & XAU up. CAC & DAX down, FTSE up, Hang Seng up & Nikkei 225 down.
Gold Bugs, Natural Gas, Networking, Energy, Oil & Commodity up. Airlines, Transports, Cyclical & Banking down.
Dollar down vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold up @ 570.4, XOI & crude up 2.2% @ 63.36, CRB commodities up. Unleaded +4.3%
Yield curve MAJOR INVERSION bonds down BIG with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.62%; 10 yr @ 4.63; 5 yr @ 4.67; 2yr @ 4.72; 6mo @ 4.74. In a full tilt boogey, 2yr is above the 30 year since 02/09.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 3 ISM Services, Mich Sentiment; Mar 6 Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales; Mar 7 Q4 Productivity, Consumer Credit.
Mar 8 EIA Inventories, Options Unwind; Mar 9 BOE announcement, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, 10 yr note auction; Mar 10 Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Treasury Budget, Wholesale Inventories.
Yesterday: "The schizo herks and jerks which are getting bigger and more frequent are not a healthy sign. We patiently watch, tomorrow is D Day for the yield curve inversion and we await March 8th-10th."
As we will be scarce till the 15th, we leave you with this: March 7th will be 10 weeks since the 2 yr note went above the 10 yr. March 9th will be 4 weeks since the 2 yr went above the 30 yr.
March 8 - 16th as well as April 14th - 21st should be inflection points for the market. The downside potential is substantial, careful observation and risk mitigation is necessary.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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