Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation, Building Permits, PPI
April Housing starts DOWN 7.4% to 1.85M vs prior 1.96M.
Inside the number: the 3rd straight drop, the largest drop in a year and the lowest level since Nov 04. Permits for new housing, the real indicator -5.4% and YOY -8%. Full Report
Homebuilder confidence NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index DOWN to 45 vs prior 51.
Inside the number: The LOWEST level since 1995, the index has fallen 23 points in 7 months and was at 70, one year ago.
The movement in the index is "not inconsistent with the orderly cooling-down process we're projecting," said an analyst.
"Rising mortgage rates, deepening affordability issues and the retreat of investors/speculators from the marketplace are prompting single-family home builders to further adjust their perspective" said the NAHB.
Nationally, sales of existing homes DOWN 2.1% YOY in Q106 says the NAR.
Inside the number: Sales have gone DOWN 22.2% YOY in Arizona, 19.2% in California, 18.2% in the District of Columbia, 15.7% in Florida and 15% in Nevada.
April Industrial Production UP +0.8%, Capacity Utilization UP 0.5% @ 81.9%
Inside the number: The rise in industrial production was the biggest since December and was led by a 1.8% jump in output of business equipment. Industrial output YOY +4.7%.
Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus said the utilization figure spells bad news on inflation. "Capacity use is now above the threshold level we see for inflation" Full Report
April PPI UP +0.9% vs prior +0.5%; CORE PPI UP +0.1% vs prior +0.1%
Inside the number: Energy prices +4%, led by a 12.3% rise in gasoline prices and a 13.7% gain in heating oil. Natural gas prices -3%. PPI YOY +4%.
Prices of intermediate goods destined for further processing +0.9%, including a 2.8% rise in energy goods prices. The core intermediate goods PPI +0.4% on higher prices for metals and building materials.
Basic industrial materials prices +4.7%, including 7% increases in nonferrous metal ores and nonferrous scrap prices.
The core intermediate PPI which is a key inflation gauge for Federal Reserve policymakers +4.9% in the past year, the fastest gain in a year. Full Report
Conclusions: Housing is starting to tank, industrial production is up, capacity utilisation is tightening to new highs, leaving little or no economic slack, and inflation is already SMOKIN... can you say no FED pause, I can.
Inside the number: the 3rd straight drop, the largest drop in a year and the lowest level since Nov 04. Permits for new housing, the real indicator -5.4% and YOY -8%. Full Report
Homebuilder confidence NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index DOWN to 45 vs prior 51.
Inside the number: The LOWEST level since 1995, the index has fallen 23 points in 7 months and was at 70, one year ago.
The movement in the index is "not inconsistent with the orderly cooling-down process we're projecting," said an analyst.
"Rising mortgage rates, deepening affordability issues and the retreat of investors/speculators from the marketplace are prompting single-family home builders to further adjust their perspective" said the NAHB.
Nationally, sales of existing homes DOWN 2.1% YOY in Q106 says the NAR.
Inside the number: Sales have gone DOWN 22.2% YOY in Arizona, 19.2% in California, 18.2% in the District of Columbia, 15.7% in Florida and 15% in Nevada.
April Industrial Production UP +0.8%, Capacity Utilization UP 0.5% @ 81.9%
Inside the number: The rise in industrial production was the biggest since December and was led by a 1.8% jump in output of business equipment. Industrial output YOY +4.7%.
Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus said the utilization figure spells bad news on inflation. "Capacity use is now above the threshold level we see for inflation" Full Report
April PPI UP +0.9% vs prior +0.5%; CORE PPI UP +0.1% vs prior +0.1%
Inside the number: Energy prices +4%, led by a 12.3% rise in gasoline prices and a 13.7% gain in heating oil. Natural gas prices -3%. PPI YOY +4%.
Prices of intermediate goods destined for further processing +0.9%, including a 2.8% rise in energy goods prices. The core intermediate goods PPI +0.4% on higher prices for metals and building materials.
Basic industrial materials prices +4.7%, including 7% increases in nonferrous metal ores and nonferrous scrap prices.
The core intermediate PPI which is a key inflation gauge for Federal Reserve policymakers +4.9% in the past year, the fastest gain in a year. Full Report
Conclusions: Housing is starting to tank, industrial production is up, capacity utilisation is tightening to new highs, leaving little or no economic slack, and inflation is already SMOKIN... can you say no FED pause, I can.
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