Market Observations 05/17/06
Only 83 points away from its all time high on May 11th, which was exactly 31 trading days after the last day of the most recent yield curve inversion on 03/29/06... thats SIX WEEKS and one day folks, do you remember that number? You will if you keep reading....
5 days straight the market has been sickly and down BIG. Today, small & mid Cap, tech, energy, metals, commodities futures, bonds & equities all got trampled under foot by a wily herd of pachyderms as the DJIA was crushed by over 200 points.
DJIA & XAU are resting on 75DMA, OEX & XOI joined SP500, MID, RUT, NDX, NAZ & SOX having all plunged through and falling from. Should DJIA & XAU join in, it could get very nasty and we might need a bigger boat.
The DJIA and overall market has been struck by a yield curve inversion wave, and flipped over on its side like the Poseidon. Whether it rolls under, remains to be seen.
The latest yield curve inversion: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 through 03/07/06 and worse yet, 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 through 03/07/06 .
Little did we know that there would be a secondary yield curve inversion with 2 above 10, 03/20/06 though 3/29/06; and 2 above 30, 03/21/06 through 3/29/06.
We previously commented on the yield curve inversion differences between 2000 and now. We called for a potential market collapse around April 24 - 27th and are so far off on that call.
Back in 2000, the NASDAQ downturn started 03/10/00, 6 weeks and 2 days after the yield curve inverted on 01/26/00. The first wave down was for 9 days and the major crash was not fully realized until another 5 weeks later around 04/15/00. Just look at a chart.
A redux of the 2000 pattern?? If we see a rebound, then continue to trend sideways and down for another five weeks into the June 11-15 period, get ready for the final wave to slam into this market and look out below. We are watching for around June 11 -15th as the next D-day or market inflection.
FYI, a very good friend of mine, who is known as Captain Numerica (and yes, I am Major Malthusian and along with our sidekick of a simian nature, Chim-Chim aka Monkey Boy, we fight for truth, justice and against the Multi National Corporate way, etc. etc.)
....is calling for a SUPER market inflection date around June 22nd-29th. And thats just a week separated from the historical pattern of June 11-15. In any case, should the pattern persist, June or July PUTS be lookin good.
UPDATE: Remember the difference between 2000 and now is: this time 6 weeks from the end of the inversion. In 2000, 6 weeks from the beginning.
5 days straight the market has been sickly and down BIG. Today, small & mid Cap, tech, energy, metals, commodities futures, bonds & equities all got trampled under foot by a wily herd of pachyderms as the DJIA was crushed by over 200 points.
DJIA & XAU are resting on 75DMA, OEX & XOI joined SP500, MID, RUT, NDX, NAZ & SOX having all plunged through and falling from. Should DJIA & XAU join in, it could get very nasty and we might need a bigger boat.
The DJIA and overall market has been struck by a yield curve inversion wave, and flipped over on its side like the Poseidon. Whether it rolls under, remains to be seen.
The latest yield curve inversion: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 through 03/07/06 and worse yet, 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 through 03/07/06 .
Little did we know that there would be a secondary yield curve inversion with 2 above 10, 03/20/06 though 3/29/06; and 2 above 30, 03/21/06 through 3/29/06.
We previously commented on the yield curve inversion differences between 2000 and now. We called for a potential market collapse around April 24 - 27th and are so far off on that call.
Back in 2000, the NASDAQ downturn started 03/10/00, 6 weeks and 2 days after the yield curve inverted on 01/26/00. The first wave down was for 9 days and the major crash was not fully realized until another 5 weeks later around 04/15/00. Just look at a chart.
A redux of the 2000 pattern?? If we see a rebound, then continue to trend sideways and down for another five weeks into the June 11-15 period, get ready for the final wave to slam into this market and look out below. We are watching for around June 11 -15th as the next D-day or market inflection.
FYI, a very good friend of mine, who is known as Captain Numerica (and yes, I am Major Malthusian and along with our sidekick of a simian nature, Chim-Chim aka Monkey Boy, we fight for truth, justice and against the Multi National Corporate way, etc. etc.)
....is calling for a SUPER market inflection date around June 22nd-29th. And thats just a week separated from the historical pattern of June 11-15. In any case, should the pattern persist, June or July PUTS be lookin good.
UPDATE: Remember the difference between 2000 and now is: this time 6 weeks from the end of the inversion. In 2000, 6 weeks from the beginning.
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