More Comment on Market Soapbox 02/13/06
Monday and Tuesday, we spoke to the potential of a perfect storm with the yield curve inversion.
We can refer to the last major NASDAQ downturn which started 03/10/00, 6 weeks and 2 days after the yield curve inverted on 01/26/00. The major crash was not fully realized until another 5 weeks later around 04/15/00.
The DJIA started heading down 01/14/00, but bounced on a defensive flight to safety, continuing in a flag waving pattern until 05/21/01 after which it and the SP500 fell over the cliff.
Adding fuel to the fire, Greenspan starts 08/11/87 with DJIA @ 2680. 10 trading days later, 08/25/87 DJIA peaks @ 2722.
38 trading days later, DJIA starts rolling over the cliff with 9 straight down days. 47 trading days later, 10/19/87, Black Monday, stock market crashes. Just meaningless trivia?
Yield curve inverts 2 above 10 on 12/27/05; full tilt inversion 2 above 30 on 02/09/06. Add six weeks you get March 23rd, add another 5 weeks you get April 27th. Bernanke starts 02/15/06, 47 trading days later would be around April 24th.
Wheres the Nasdaq bubble gone? The RUT, MID, commodities & real estate.
Ok, lets review, IF 2 stays above 30 for 10 more days, we bounce up in final hurrah till March 10-16, market starts to roll over for 5 weeks, April 17-24 market caves in. Just some idle thoughts, let's wait and see.
We can refer to the last major NASDAQ downturn which started 03/10/00, 6 weeks and 2 days after the yield curve inverted on 01/26/00. The major crash was not fully realized until another 5 weeks later around 04/15/00.
The DJIA started heading down 01/14/00, but bounced on a defensive flight to safety, continuing in a flag waving pattern until 05/21/01 after which it and the SP500 fell over the cliff.
Adding fuel to the fire, Greenspan starts 08/11/87 with DJIA @ 2680. 10 trading days later, 08/25/87 DJIA peaks @ 2722.
38 trading days later, DJIA starts rolling over the cliff with 9 straight down days. 47 trading days later, 10/19/87, Black Monday, stock market crashes. Just meaningless trivia?
Yield curve inverts 2 above 10 on 12/27/05; full tilt inversion 2 above 30 on 02/09/06. Add six weeks you get March 23rd, add another 5 weeks you get April 27th. Bernanke starts 02/15/06, 47 trading days later would be around April 24th.
Wheres the Nasdaq bubble gone? The RUT, MID, commodities & real estate.
Ok, lets review, IF 2 stays above 30 for 10 more days, we bounce up in final hurrah till March 10-16, market starts to roll over for 5 weeks, April 17-24 market caves in. Just some idle thoughts, let's wait and see.
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