Export & Import Prices, Housing Starts & Permits, Philly Fed
Initial Claims 297K vs prior 278K showing +19K, but under 300K for the 5th straight week. In my book neither here nor there, probably long term unemployed falling off the rolls, and there's just less people eligible to file.
Philly Fed Feb 15.4 vs Jan 3.3 vs Dec 10.9; Inside the number: Shipping index 22.5 vs prior 18.8; New orders 12.5 vs prior 11.1.
A curious observation: Prices received declined from 21.9 to 18.2, the 4th straight of decline. Meanwhile prices paid fell from 44.9 to 30.5, 36 percent reported higher
input prices; however, this was down from 53 percent in January.
Yet, Firms, on balance,reported more unfilled orders and longer delivery times. Indicating a shrinkage in economic slack.Full report
Building Permits Jan 2217K vs Dec 2068K vs Nov 2163K; Housing Starts Jan 2276K vs Dec 1933K vs Nov 2121K; trumpeted as the housing market showing signs of life with a 14.5% jump, the largest since 1973.
This data shows a clear seasonality shift due to unseasonably warm weather and the builders desire to get it up and out fast before you know what happens. Don't you think that KB and Toll hear that whooshing sound too?
Export prices ex ag Jan +0.7% vs Dec +0.2% vs Nov -0.7%; Import prices ex-oil Jan +1.3% vs Dec -0.1% vs Nov -0.2%.
Inside the number: Total Export prices Jan +0.7% vs Dec +0.1% vs Nov -0.7%; growing at +2.7% YOY. Imported oil rising 6.4%, Total import prices +8.8% YOY.
Demonstrable proof that the energy cost pass through is escalating and here to stay. Full report
Philly Fed Feb 15.4 vs Jan 3.3 vs Dec 10.9; Inside the number: Shipping index 22.5 vs prior 18.8; New orders 12.5 vs prior 11.1.
A curious observation: Prices received declined from 21.9 to 18.2, the 4th straight of decline. Meanwhile prices paid fell from 44.9 to 30.5, 36 percent reported higher
input prices; however, this was down from 53 percent in January.
Yet, Firms, on balance,reported more unfilled orders and longer delivery times. Indicating a shrinkage in economic slack.Full report
Building Permits Jan 2217K vs Dec 2068K vs Nov 2163K; Housing Starts Jan 2276K vs Dec 1933K vs Nov 2121K; trumpeted as the housing market showing signs of life with a 14.5% jump, the largest since 1973.
This data shows a clear seasonality shift due to unseasonably warm weather and the builders desire to get it up and out fast before you know what happens. Don't you think that KB and Toll hear that whooshing sound too?
Export prices ex ag Jan +0.7% vs Dec +0.2% vs Nov -0.7%; Import prices ex-oil Jan +1.3% vs Dec -0.1% vs Nov -0.2%.
Inside the number: Total Export prices Jan +0.7% vs Dec +0.1% vs Nov -0.7%; growing at +2.7% YOY. Imported oil rising 6.4%, Total import prices +8.8% YOY.
Demonstrable proof that the energy cost pass through is escalating and here to stay. Full report
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