Market Soapbox 02/13/06
Resistance: DJIA 10950; SP500 1285; Nasdaq 2315; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2190; NDX 1630
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, no major economic reports today, so as Alan Parsons said, lets talk about me...
Slumming about Villa Matilde, Romano Canavese, Google it with the word Bush. Next stops, Egypt, Turkey and Cyprus, interesting stuff going on in the region. FYI, on the QT lots of infantry being commissioned to Iraq of late, quite the build up.
Speaking of Google, from Friday: "300 is not out of the question" today tanking down to 345. Why this stock is over $30 is beyond me. When Oracle was in the stratosphere, I said at best it is a $9 stock, look at the recent price. When will people learn??
Recent DJIA History: 21 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 20 weeks +148, 19 weeks -281, 18 weeks -6, 17 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 16 weeks recovery begins +186, 15 weeks +128, 14 weeks +154, 13 weeks +79, 12 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
11 weeks -53, 10 weeks -99, 9 weeks +99, 8 weeks +8. 7 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 6 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 5 weeks +0, 4 weeks -292, 3 weeks +240, 2 weeks -113. 5 week gain +75. Last week DJIA +116, over the last 21 weeks DJIA +170.
Today, DJIA -26 on a bounce into closing with horrible internals and lower volume. This week DJIA -26. DJTA, NDX, NAZ, MID, SOX, XAU & RUT beat down silly. XOI up, CAC, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down BIG.
Sectors: Tech, Semis, Healthcare, Cyclical, Commodity, Tobacco, Transports, Natural Gas, Biotech & Gold Bugs pounded down.
Dollar up vs. Euro & down vs. Yen, XAU & gold down BIG @ 541, XOI weak & crude down BIG @ 61, CRB commodities down. Natural gas, silver, zinc & platinum pounded down mercilessly.
Yield curve MAJOR INVERSION bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.56%; 10 yr @ 4.58; 5 yr @ 4.57; 2yr @ 4.67; 6mo @ 4.69. In a full tilt boogey, 6mo is 13 bps above the 30 year.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 14: Retail Sales, Business Inventories; Feb 15 Empire State, Net Foreign Purchases, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, EIA Inventory, Bernanke's Testimonial before Congress; Feb 16 Building Permits, Export Prices, Housing Starts, Import Prices, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Feb 17 Mich Sentiment; PPI, Core PPI.
Friday: "Gold... pulling back to 500 would not be a surprise... the energy sector and commodities have also been getting beat about the head... there is a flight to safety (in progress) ...all this behaviour indicates an anticipated pullback in consumer spending (and economic activity). "
Todays NDX low of 1638 and Fridays 1637 seem to be gravitating towards 1630. Valentines Day Massacre?? Wend, we expect a near term inflection point in the market and perhaps a bounce before what could be a real fall from grace.
First Google, then gold, then oil, then all precious metals and most commodities should follow. We are now feeling the effect of +50 oil for over one year.
Remember the yield curve inversion dates Dec 27th (2 yr above 10 yr) and Feb 9th (2 above 30). If the 2 year note stays above the 30 year for another 12 days, you can probably say bye bye baby right around March 10th - 16th.
If this transpires, it is probable that all asset classes without exception would be devalued around 30%. Like a good sniper, lets observe the targets behaviour and if it moves into the crosshairs.... be prepared for the opportunity to execute in short order.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2190; NDX 1630
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, no major economic reports today, so as Alan Parsons said, lets talk about me...
Slumming about Villa Matilde, Romano Canavese, Google it with the word Bush. Next stops, Egypt, Turkey and Cyprus, interesting stuff going on in the region. FYI, on the QT lots of infantry being commissioned to Iraq of late, quite the build up.
Speaking of Google, from Friday: "300 is not out of the question" today tanking down to 345. Why this stock is over $30 is beyond me. When Oracle was in the stratosphere, I said at best it is a $9 stock, look at the recent price. When will people learn??
Recent DJIA History: 21 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 20 weeks +148, 19 weeks -281, 18 weeks -6, 17 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 16 weeks recovery begins +186, 15 weeks +128, 14 weeks +154, 13 weeks +79, 12 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
11 weeks -53, 10 weeks -99, 9 weeks +99, 8 weeks +8. 7 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 6 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 5 weeks +0, 4 weeks -292, 3 weeks +240, 2 weeks -113. 5 week gain +75. Last week DJIA +116, over the last 21 weeks DJIA +170.
Today, DJIA -26 on a bounce into closing with horrible internals and lower volume. This week DJIA -26. DJTA, NDX, NAZ, MID, SOX, XAU & RUT beat down silly. XOI up, CAC, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down BIG.
Sectors: Tech, Semis, Healthcare, Cyclical, Commodity, Tobacco, Transports, Natural Gas, Biotech & Gold Bugs pounded down.
Dollar up vs. Euro & down vs. Yen, XAU & gold down BIG @ 541, XOI weak & crude down BIG @ 61, CRB commodities down. Natural gas, silver, zinc & platinum pounded down mercilessly.
Yield curve MAJOR INVERSION bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.56%; 10 yr @ 4.58; 5 yr @ 4.57; 2yr @ 4.67; 6mo @ 4.69. In a full tilt boogey, 6mo is 13 bps above the 30 year.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 14: Retail Sales, Business Inventories; Feb 15 Empire State, Net Foreign Purchases, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, EIA Inventory, Bernanke's Testimonial before Congress; Feb 16 Building Permits, Export Prices, Housing Starts, Import Prices, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Feb 17 Mich Sentiment; PPI, Core PPI.
Friday: "Gold... pulling back to 500 would not be a surprise... the energy sector and commodities have also been getting beat about the head... there is a flight to safety (in progress) ...all this behaviour indicates an anticipated pullback in consumer spending (and economic activity). "
Todays NDX low of 1638 and Fridays 1637 seem to be gravitating towards 1630. Valentines Day Massacre?? Wend, we expect a near term inflection point in the market and perhaps a bounce before what could be a real fall from grace.
First Google, then gold, then oil, then all precious metals and most commodities should follow. We are now feeling the effect of +50 oil for over one year.
Remember the yield curve inversion dates Dec 27th (2 yr above 10 yr) and Feb 9th (2 above 30). If the 2 year note stays above the 30 year for another 12 days, you can probably say bye bye baby right around March 10th - 16th.
If this transpires, it is probable that all asset classes without exception would be devalued around 30%. Like a good sniper, lets observe the targets behaviour and if it moves into the crosshairs.... be prepared for the opportunity to execute in short order.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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