Market Observations 06/15/06
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead.
From yesterday: "With NDX hitting 1511 yesterday, is this the beginning of a bounce to short into? Perhaps some more bounce on the morrow." At 7 month lows, the NAZ was 13% off from its peak and the RUT 14.6% off.
Today, DJIA hurdled back over 11K, foreign markets, commodities and interest rate sensitive equities participated in the 2nd day of a technical bounce, while bonds & the dollar took the fall again.
Benny & the Feds latest comments and tonic for the markets: "the economy has shown underlying strength and resiliency despite the drag from higher energy costs.... in the long-term, the impact of higher energy prices will probably be manageable,"
Alrighty then...Is this a headfake or false bottom to lure in the herd?? On June 8th we commented: MAX PAIN is DIA 110; SPX 1265; NDX 1585; MID 790; RUT 725, look where they are." And look what this 2 day bounce has done..
With quadruple witching tomorrow, todays MAX PAIN vs closing: DIA 110.15 vs 110.22; SPX 1255 vs 1256; NDX 1575 vs 1574; MID 760 vs 743; RUT 715 vs 701. Coincidence?? We think not.
There are 3 possibilties for interpreting the current pattern, if SUSTAINED, we could bounce into either a 2 up or a 4 up, either of which gets followed by a down wave.
Or perhaps this is a 1 up following an ABC down... if this is a headfake, further depths await in the near term. Only time will tell and patience is required.
One thing for sure, PUTS just got way cheaper. More bounce on the morrow, or with options expiration do "they" let the chips fall where they may??
It depends on how far the PPT wants to let the dollar & bonds drop to save equities & commodities and vice versa. Timing is everything... and with a lack of volume to substantiate conviction, the jury is still out.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
From yesterday: "With NDX hitting 1511 yesterday, is this the beginning of a bounce to short into? Perhaps some more bounce on the morrow." At 7 month lows, the NAZ was 13% off from its peak and the RUT 14.6% off.
Today, DJIA hurdled back over 11K, foreign markets, commodities and interest rate sensitive equities participated in the 2nd day of a technical bounce, while bonds & the dollar took the fall again.
Benny & the Feds latest comments and tonic for the markets: "the economy has shown underlying strength and resiliency despite the drag from higher energy costs.... in the long-term, the impact of higher energy prices will probably be manageable,"
Alrighty then...Is this a headfake or false bottom to lure in the herd?? On June 8th we commented: MAX PAIN is DIA 110; SPX 1265; NDX 1585; MID 790; RUT 725, look where they are." And look what this 2 day bounce has done..
With quadruple witching tomorrow, todays MAX PAIN vs closing: DIA 110.15 vs 110.22; SPX 1255 vs 1256; NDX 1575 vs 1574; MID 760 vs 743; RUT 715 vs 701. Coincidence?? We think not.
There are 3 possibilties for interpreting the current pattern, if SUSTAINED, we could bounce into either a 2 up or a 4 up, either of which gets followed by a down wave.
Or perhaps this is a 1 up following an ABC down... if this is a headfake, further depths await in the near term. Only time will tell and patience is required.
One thing for sure, PUTS just got way cheaper. More bounce on the morrow, or with options expiration do "they" let the chips fall where they may??
It depends on how far the PPT wants to let the dollar & bonds drop to save equities & commodities and vice versa. Timing is everything... and with a lack of volume to substantiate conviction, the jury is still out.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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