Market Observations 06/16/06
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead.
Benny & the Feds latest comments from Fed Head Poole indicating that the Fed may need to act since U.S. data may understate inflation because of rising oil prices. Really? Do ya think?? Yeah, by about 10% or more....
From yesterday: "Is this a headfake or false bottom to lure in the herd?? More bounce on the morrow, or with options expiration do "they" let the chips fall where they may??"
After the largest single & two day gain in over a year, fall where they may was the order of the day. With quadruple witching volume spiked, last night after market NAZ 46M vs avg 30M, NYSE 48M vs avg 20M.
Today, pre market NAZ volume 164M vs avg 20M. Regular session market volume DJIA 2B & NAZ 2.5B. Investors are skiddish as volatility on the VIX & VXN shot up 13%.
Earlier this week: "The potential for a very BLACK day looms large, and yet we sense a potential bounce coming off of 1503 NDX, but don't hang your hat on it."
We are in the market inflection range previously mentioned in these pages - June 11-30th. My preference was for June 12-19, and yes, a bounce occured at 1511 NDX on the 14th with the DJIA +2.8%, SP500 +2.7%, RUT +4.2% and NAZ +3.5% on Wen & Thu.
We still sense a much larger inflection point towards the 29th-30th. The Fed statement will be critical as of late, bonds & dollar have decoupled and taken an inverse relationship from equities & commodities.
We are in a full tilt boogey with the yield curve inversion and the 10 yr is flirting with 5.15 again. Fed bump to 5.25 will put the 10 yr above 5.25.
As mentioned previously in these pages, a Fed pause and resulting bond & dollar sell off could run the 10 yr upwards of 6% as a decoupling between the 10 yr and actual mortgage rates may occur.
A truly black day has not arrived as of yet, and with a lack of upward volume to substantiate conviction and today's reversal on higher volume, for the moment the jury is still out and the possession arrow is pointing down.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Benny & the Feds latest comments from Fed Head Poole indicating that the Fed may need to act since U.S. data may understate inflation because of rising oil prices. Really? Do ya think?? Yeah, by about 10% or more....
From yesterday: "Is this a headfake or false bottom to lure in the herd?? More bounce on the morrow, or with options expiration do "they" let the chips fall where they may??"
After the largest single & two day gain in over a year, fall where they may was the order of the day. With quadruple witching volume spiked, last night after market NAZ 46M vs avg 30M, NYSE 48M vs avg 20M.
Today, pre market NAZ volume 164M vs avg 20M. Regular session market volume DJIA 2B & NAZ 2.5B. Investors are skiddish as volatility on the VIX & VXN shot up 13%.
Earlier this week: "The potential for a very BLACK day looms large, and yet we sense a potential bounce coming off of 1503 NDX, but don't hang your hat on it."
We are in the market inflection range previously mentioned in these pages - June 11-30th. My preference was for June 12-19, and yes, a bounce occured at 1511 NDX on the 14th with the DJIA +2.8%, SP500 +2.7%, RUT +4.2% and NAZ +3.5% on Wen & Thu.
We still sense a much larger inflection point towards the 29th-30th. The Fed statement will be critical as of late, bonds & dollar have decoupled and taken an inverse relationship from equities & commodities.
We are in a full tilt boogey with the yield curve inversion and the 10 yr is flirting with 5.15 again. Fed bump to 5.25 will put the 10 yr above 5.25.
As mentioned previously in these pages, a Fed pause and resulting bond & dollar sell off could run the 10 yr upwards of 6% as a decoupling between the 10 yr and actual mortgage rates may occur.
A truly black day has not arrived as of yet, and with a lack of upward volume to substantiate conviction and today's reversal on higher volume, for the moment the jury is still out and the possession arrow is pointing down.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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