Market Soapbox 06/21/06
Resistance: DJIA 11775; SP500 1335; Nasdaq 2380; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10650, SP500 1210, Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1500
EIA Inventory: Crude +1.4M Barrels; Gasoline +0.3M; Distillate +1.7M.
Inside the number: 8th straight build in gasoline supply. Crude supply at an 8 year high. YOY Crude +19.7M; Gasoline -2.5M; Distillate +13M. No shortages other than the orchestrated refinery production squeeze Full Report
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone new has taken his place...
MAJOR YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds DOWN with the 30 yr yield rising @ 5.19%; 10 yr @ 5.15; 5 yr @ 5.13; 2yr @ 5.19; 6 mo @ 5.24.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07 & 03/20 - 3/29. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29. 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 2yr above 10yr 06/08 - ? 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - ?
MON, DJIA -73 on lower volume, bleeding into the close with ugly internals.
TUE, a thinly traded split tape day with a small bounce then a fade, DJIA +33 with midlin internals.
WEN, a thinly traded triple digit broadbased bounce much like 06/14 & 06/15, with pretty but deceiving internals (more later) DJIA + 105. This week DJIA +65, since 09/19/05 DJIA +439.
Indexes UP: Everything BIG cept DJUA DOWN: None
Sectors UP: Everything BIG, cept Pharma, Banking & Utilities DOWN: None
Overseas: FTSE , DAX , CAC , Hang Seng UP BARELY & Nikkei 225 DOWN.
Dollar DOWN vs. Euro 1.2742 & Yen 113.34, XAU +4.2% & gold UP +1.8% @ 591, XOI +2% & crude UP 1.4% @ 70.33, CRB commodities index UP 1% @ 336.75
YTD Worst Sectors: Tires and Rubber -35%; Homebuilding -32.5%; Internet Software and Services -24.4% and Internet Retail -21.5%.
Today thinly traded with VIX & VXN dropping 10% to 5 week lows, showing little volatility and investor complacency. This SEEMS to be a perfect bounce to short into and take VIX Calls on....
From 3:30 EST till closing, notice the massive volume spike and selloff on the QQQQ's, not a vote of confidence for this thinly traded rally. We suspect more bounce to come, terminating sometime tomorrow or Friday, then another nice roll down the stairs.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10650, SP500 1210, Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1500
EIA Inventory: Crude +1.4M Barrels; Gasoline +0.3M; Distillate +1.7M.
Inside the number: 8th straight build in gasoline supply. Crude supply at an 8 year high. YOY Crude +19.7M; Gasoline -2.5M; Distillate +13M. No shortages other than the orchestrated refinery production squeeze Full Report
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone new has taken his place...
MAJOR YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds DOWN with the 30 yr yield rising @ 5.19%; 10 yr @ 5.15; 5 yr @ 5.13; 2yr @ 5.19; 6 mo @ 5.24.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07 & 03/20 - 3/29. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29. 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 2yr above 10yr 06/08 - ? 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - ?
MON, DJIA -73 on lower volume, bleeding into the close with ugly internals.
TUE, a thinly traded split tape day with a small bounce then a fade, DJIA +33 with midlin internals.
WEN, a thinly traded triple digit broadbased bounce much like 06/14 & 06/15, with pretty but deceiving internals (more later) DJIA + 105. This week DJIA +65, since 09/19/05 DJIA +439.
Indexes UP: Everything BIG cept DJUA DOWN: None
Sectors UP: Everything BIG, cept Pharma, Banking & Utilities DOWN: None
Overseas: FTSE , DAX , CAC , Hang Seng UP BARELY & Nikkei 225 DOWN.
Dollar DOWN vs. Euro 1.2742 & Yen 113.34, XAU +4.2% & gold UP +1.8% @ 591, XOI +2% & crude UP 1.4% @ 70.33, CRB commodities index UP 1% @ 336.75
YTD Worst Sectors: Tires and Rubber -35%; Homebuilding -32.5%; Internet Software and Services -24.4% and Internet Retail -21.5%.
Today thinly traded with VIX & VXN dropping 10% to 5 week lows, showing little volatility and investor complacency. This SEEMS to be a perfect bounce to short into and take VIX Calls on....
From 3:30 EST till closing, notice the massive volume spike and selloff on the QQQQ's, not a vote of confidence for this thinly traded rally. We suspect more bounce to come, terminating sometime tomorrow or Friday, then another nice roll down the stairs.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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