NAHB & Market Observations 06/19/06
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead.
June NAHB/Wells Fargo housing index -4 to 42.
Inside the number: Falling for a 6th straight time and 10 of the last 12 months. The lowest since April 1995, an 11 year low. Falling 30 points in the last year, the largest YOY plunge in the 21 year history of the index.
Interest rate sensitive issues: Utilities, Bonds, Small & Mid Cap as well as Commodities, Energy & Precious Metals all got punked today. Perhaps a small one or two day bounce is in order, before further consolidation ensues.
How bad has May and June been to the markets? End of Q106: RUT +13.7%; DJIA +3.7%; YTD as of today: DJIA +2.7%; RUT +1.8%. Commodities continue to sell off, CRB -8.8% from its 05/11 high.
The anchor DJIA sitting on, NYSE, XAU & XOI hanging from, MID & RUT falling from 200DMA. NDX & NAZ sitting on while SOX fell through 600DMA.
We sense another leg down which could start in earnest June 22nd and last until July 6th. IF a small bounce occurs this week, it will be another opportunity to short into.
Looking further out, perhaps a 3 week ABC up false rally from July 7th through 27th, then the bottom could really drop out as a massive 3 wave down begins. Just idle thoughts and conjecture, no gospel here.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
June NAHB/Wells Fargo housing index -4 to 42.
Inside the number: Falling for a 6th straight time and 10 of the last 12 months. The lowest since April 1995, an 11 year low. Falling 30 points in the last year, the largest YOY plunge in the 21 year history of the index.
Interest rate sensitive issues: Utilities, Bonds, Small & Mid Cap as well as Commodities, Energy & Precious Metals all got punked today. Perhaps a small one or two day bounce is in order, before further consolidation ensues.
How bad has May and June been to the markets? End of Q106: RUT +13.7%; DJIA +3.7%; YTD as of today: DJIA +2.7%; RUT +1.8%. Commodities continue to sell off, CRB -8.8% from its 05/11 high.
The anchor DJIA sitting on, NYSE, XAU & XOI hanging from, MID & RUT falling from 200DMA. NDX & NAZ sitting on while SOX fell through 600DMA.
We sense another leg down which could start in earnest June 22nd and last until July 6th. IF a small bounce occurs this week, it will be another opportunity to short into.
Looking further out, perhaps a 3 week ABC up false rally from July 7th through 27th, then the bottom could really drop out as a massive 3 wave down begins. Just idle thoughts and conjecture, no gospel here.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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