The Name is Bond - Part III
Of interest will be the unfolding energy play as the "terrorists", the "merchantilists" and the energy players themselves have a hand in this.
Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows that $70 oil is unrealistic and unsustainable over the long term.
Take out the $15 "terror" premium and $20 speculative frenzy hedge premium and oil is at $35 per barrel where it would be in a truly "free" market.
But enlightened Naybob readers know better, nothing in this world is free and there is no such thing as a free market, much like "peak oil" just another urban myth for the brainwashed.
Near term, much higher interest rates (higher risk premiums and lower debt spreads) and/or a global economic slowdown could pull oil back into the $50 range.
Long term it will take development of alternative energy sources. If oil stays around $70 or rises, the central banks will be forced to continue raising interest rates.
Not just to mop up the hyperliquidity mess they created or to chase speculators out of asset markets, but to keep up with the attendent energy pass through stagflation in the supply chain.
To date, in and of itself the "energy play" has been a very efficacious act of "economic terrorism". As Darth Vader said, "Most impressive, Obi-Wan has taught you well"....
Employment, the dollar, interest rates and energy costs will be the key gauges in the near to medium term.
Remember, if the dollar is left to fall, this will cause additional inflationary pressure and would cause rates to rise. Unless of course, all currencies get debauched over the long haul...
which they do without fail, as this is the central bankers M.O. to rob the public blind while they sleep. More to come on inflation lies, so called productivity miracles and robber barons in Part IV.
Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows that $70 oil is unrealistic and unsustainable over the long term.
Take out the $15 "terror" premium and $20 speculative frenzy hedge premium and oil is at $35 per barrel where it would be in a truly "free" market.
But enlightened Naybob readers know better, nothing in this world is free and there is no such thing as a free market, much like "peak oil" just another urban myth for the brainwashed.
Near term, much higher interest rates (higher risk premiums and lower debt spreads) and/or a global economic slowdown could pull oil back into the $50 range.
Long term it will take development of alternative energy sources. If oil stays around $70 or rises, the central banks will be forced to continue raising interest rates.
Not just to mop up the hyperliquidity mess they created or to chase speculators out of asset markets, but to keep up with the attendent energy pass through stagflation in the supply chain.
To date, in and of itself the "energy play" has been a very efficacious act of "economic terrorism". As Darth Vader said, "Most impressive, Obi-Wan has taught you well"....
Employment, the dollar, interest rates and energy costs will be the key gauges in the near to medium term.
Remember, if the dollar is left to fall, this will cause additional inflationary pressure and would cause rates to rise. Unless of course, all currencies get debauched over the long haul...
which they do without fail, as this is the central bankers M.O. to rob the public blind while they sleep. More to come on inflation lies, so called productivity miracles and robber barons in Part IV.
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