Chicago PMI & Market Observations 07/31/06
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.
Chicago PMI UP 57.9 vs prior 56.5
Inside the number: prices paid component DOWN @ 86.8% from an 18 year high of 89.0. New orders UP @ 60.0% from 57.2%. Order backlogs DOWN @ 48.2% from 57.8%.
Inventories DOWN @ 48.7% from 54%. Production UP @ 64.1% from 54.6%. Overall continued growth with a drop in costs.
Fed Heads: Yellen "close to the end of the road" with tightening; but acknowledged that there have been no signs of easing inflation pressures in the economic data
Poole sees a 50% chance of rate hike on Aug. 8. We say 25 bps to 5.5% then perhaps a pause till January. Howz Tech?? July NAZ -3.7%, 4 straight months DOWN.
Due to the advent of natural gas fueled electricity generation, the big heatwave will equal higher natural gas costs, today natural gas futures +14%.
I suspect that tomorrows Core PCE & ISM, Fridays non farms payroll and the Aug 8th FOMC annoucement, coupled with the quarterly financing Aug 7-10th with ultimately determine whether we get a nice summer rally or it will be a cruel, cruel summer.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Chicago PMI UP 57.9 vs prior 56.5
Inside the number: prices paid component DOWN @ 86.8% from an 18 year high of 89.0. New orders UP @ 60.0% from 57.2%. Order backlogs DOWN @ 48.2% from 57.8%.
Inventories DOWN @ 48.7% from 54%. Production UP @ 64.1% from 54.6%. Overall continued growth with a drop in costs.
Fed Heads: Yellen "close to the end of the road" with tightening; but acknowledged that there have been no signs of easing inflation pressures in the economic data
Poole sees a 50% chance of rate hike on Aug. 8. We say 25 bps to 5.5% then perhaps a pause till January. Howz Tech?? July NAZ -3.7%, 4 straight months DOWN.
Due to the advent of natural gas fueled electricity generation, the big heatwave will equal higher natural gas costs, today natural gas futures +14%.
I suspect that tomorrows Core PCE & ISM, Fridays non farms payroll and the Aug 8th FOMC annoucement, coupled with the quarterly financing Aug 7-10th with ultimately determine whether we get a nice summer rally or it will be a cruel, cruel summer.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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