Market Observations 08/01/06

In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.

After bleeding forced gastro intestinal surgery, 80 year old Fidel Castro, ceded power provisionally over Cuba to his younger brother and minister of defense Raul Castro. I got three words for Raul, beach front casinos (and condos)....

Russian oil giant Yukos was declared bankrupt and its remaining assets, including 600K bpd crude production will be auctioned off. Russian (gas) Gazprom and (oil) Rosneft giants will probably acquire the remaining assets.

And you knew something was coming last night, huge aftermarket volume spike: NAZ: 706.5M vs avg. 38M; AMEX: 60.2M vs avg. 7M; NYSE: 1.4B vs avg. 40M, thats no typo, just look it up at Nasdaq.com.

Core PCE and ISM stoked both inflation and economic slowdown fears and put a damper on the markets 8 day potential FED pause party. YOY Auto sales were outright ugly; Nissan -16%; GM -19.5%; Ford -34%; Chrysler -37%.

FYI, over the last 15 years, August has been the worst month for the markets. With lowered forward guidance and reduced earnings, oil at $75 and two middle east conflicts, it does not look good.

DJIA clinging to 100DMA; SP500 sitting on 200DMA; MID & RUT slicing through 300DMA; NAZ falling from 600DMA; NDX heading for 900DMA.

Fridays non farms payroll and the Aug 8th FOMC annoucement, coupled with the quarterly financing Aug 7-10th with ultimately determine whether we get a nice summer rally or it will be a cruel, cruel summer.

Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!

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