Market Soapbox 07/24/06
Resistance: DJIA 11775; SP500 1335; Nasdaq 2380; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10650, SP500 1220, Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1450
YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds UP with the 30 yr yield falling @ 5.10%; 10 yr @ 5.04; 5 yr @ 4.99; 2yr @ 5.08; 6 mo @ 5.24. 2yr below 30yr for 3rd day.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07 & 03/20 - 3/29. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29.
6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 2yr above 10yr 06/08 - ? 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?
MON, a triple digit bounce DJIA +183 on lower but average volume with nice internals. This week DJIA +183, since 09/19/05 DJIA +409.
Indexes UP: ALL DOWN: NONE Sectors UP: ALL leaving contrails. DOWN: NONE.
Overseas: FTSE, CAC, DAX ALL UP BIG, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 split & both flat.
Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.2637 & vs. Yen 116.77, XAU +1.8% & gold DOWN -1% @ 613.2, XOI +2.9% & crude UP @ $75.05, CRB commodities index UP @ 342.71
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.
Crude up on hurricane warning, dollar up, gold consolidating. Defensive plays: YTD Consumer staples +4.9%; Utilities +6.7%. Today, VIX -11% showing more call options being bought.
M&A action, assorted semi's upgrades, decent pharma earning & tech stock buybacks brought out the pigeons looking for "bargain" breadcrumbs, leading to a broadbased, but low volume (convictionless) rally.
It feels like another headfake, but how long can it sustain? Watch RUT 695 for initial upside resistance, then 705, perhaps reaching 710.
We sense near the 31st is a major inflection point and potentially large step to the upside or downside, look at 05/25 through 06/01 for clues, let's see.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10650, SP500 1220, Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1450
YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds UP with the 30 yr yield falling @ 5.10%; 10 yr @ 5.04; 5 yr @ 4.99; 2yr @ 5.08; 6 mo @ 5.24. 2yr below 30yr for 3rd day.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07 & 03/20 - 3/29. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29.
6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 2yr above 10yr 06/08 - ? 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?
MON, a triple digit bounce DJIA +183 on lower but average volume with nice internals. This week DJIA +183, since 09/19/05 DJIA +409.
Indexes UP: ALL DOWN: NONE Sectors UP: ALL leaving contrails. DOWN: NONE.
Overseas: FTSE, CAC, DAX ALL UP BIG, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 split & both flat.
Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.2637 & vs. Yen 116.77, XAU +1.8% & gold DOWN -1% @ 613.2, XOI +2.9% & crude UP @ $75.05, CRB commodities index UP @ 342.71
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.
Crude up on hurricane warning, dollar up, gold consolidating. Defensive plays: YTD Consumer staples +4.9%; Utilities +6.7%. Today, VIX -11% showing more call options being bought.
M&A action, assorted semi's upgrades, decent pharma earning & tech stock buybacks brought out the pigeons looking for "bargain" breadcrumbs, leading to a broadbased, but low volume (convictionless) rally.
It feels like another headfake, but how long can it sustain? Watch RUT 695 for initial upside resistance, then 705, perhaps reaching 710.
We sense near the 31st is a major inflection point and potentially large step to the upside or downside, look at 05/25 through 06/01 for clues, let's see.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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