Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part III
Kilted Green a "peak oil" supporter has some interesting comments regarding "Another Peak Oil Cufuffle". KG queries "why do you think there is so little possibility that the "peak oil" theory might be in the least bit true." We respond... KG's comments in Italics
3. "You, presumably, are aware of fields where this trend (depletion) has been reversed, so could you please supply their names?"
Aside from ancedotal information from industry veterans in Australia, Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia....
I'll just run right down to what is left of the 7 sisters and get ya the list from one of the Rockefellers, Armand Hammer or Leon Hess...
How would one get data on oil being generated and replenished when the only hard data comes from an industry that doesn't acknowledge that oil is generated at all?
The statistical figures that 'Peak Oil' supporters use come from the petroleum industry. How do those obviously self serving figures or the oil industry have any credibility?
Isn't this the same industry that has worked with the CIA for decades to destabilize foreign governments, commit egregious human rights violations, manipulate market pricing, brutally rape the environment and gotten us to fight their proxy wars in Vietnam and Iraq?
KG asks for names and one such field, Eugene 330 has appeared to be replenishing, but has been dismissed as an unusual anomaly, rather than being typical of the other 40,000 developed oil fields.
Eugene Island had achieved 20K bpd by 1989; by 1992 it had slipped to 15K but recovered to reach a peak of 30K in 1996. Production from the reservoir has dropped steadily since then.
Both scientists and geologists from big oil have seen the evidence and admitted that the Eugene Island oil field is refilling itself. The experts "speculate" that 330 is replenished by a larger linked group of reservoirs than initially expected.
Claims that oil is peaking would seem to run contrary to the Saudi's claim they could increase reserves by 200 Billion barrels. As well, as Russia's reserves which could increase by another 280 Billion barrels.
Did you ever notice how Peak Oil suddenly got mainstreamed post 9/11? And how all these academic "experts" suddenly showed up en masse?
Meanwhile the price of oil has gone from $9 to $76 during this period of sudden "peak oil" awareness? Isn't that extra special? Isn't that convenient? Coincidence? We think not. More to come in Part IV.
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part II
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part III
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part IV
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part V
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VI
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VII
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Epilogue
3. "You, presumably, are aware of fields where this trend (depletion) has been reversed, so could you please supply their names?"
Aside from ancedotal information from industry veterans in Australia, Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia....
I'll just run right down to what is left of the 7 sisters and get ya the list from one of the Rockefellers, Armand Hammer or Leon Hess...
How would one get data on oil being generated and replenished when the only hard data comes from an industry that doesn't acknowledge that oil is generated at all?
The statistical figures that 'Peak Oil' supporters use come from the petroleum industry. How do those obviously self serving figures or the oil industry have any credibility?
Isn't this the same industry that has worked with the CIA for decades to destabilize foreign governments, commit egregious human rights violations, manipulate market pricing, brutally rape the environment and gotten us to fight their proxy wars in Vietnam and Iraq?
KG asks for names and one such field, Eugene 330 has appeared to be replenishing, but has been dismissed as an unusual anomaly, rather than being typical of the other 40,000 developed oil fields.
Eugene Island had achieved 20K bpd by 1989; by 1992 it had slipped to 15K but recovered to reach a peak of 30K in 1996. Production from the reservoir has dropped steadily since then.
Both scientists and geologists from big oil have seen the evidence and admitted that the Eugene Island oil field is refilling itself. The experts "speculate" that 330 is replenished by a larger linked group of reservoirs than initially expected.
Claims that oil is peaking would seem to run contrary to the Saudi's claim they could increase reserves by 200 Billion barrels. As well, as Russia's reserves which could increase by another 280 Billion barrels.
Did you ever notice how Peak Oil suddenly got mainstreamed post 9/11? And how all these academic "experts" suddenly showed up en masse?
Meanwhile the price of oil has gone from $9 to $76 during this period of sudden "peak oil" awareness? Isn't that extra special? Isn't that convenient? Coincidence? We think not. More to come in Part IV.
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part II
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part III
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part IV
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part V
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VI
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VII
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Epilogue
Comments
I appreciate you finding Eugene 330 as an example of a replenished well, however, if you look at the rates of decline in fields - and countries - around the world it seems unlikely that its peak of 30k bpd 10 years ago isn't going to make any impact whatsoever on the overall picture today.
Also, there is a fundamental problem between us. I agree that oil companies don't make it into my top ten of admirable companies around the world, but they are the place we have to ultimately go to find out what the figures are. As you disbelieve the figures provided by BIG OIL (your emphasis) from where are you getting your trustworthy production information?
You say "Claims that oil is peaking would seem to run contrary to the Saudi's claim they could increase reserves by 200 Billion barrels. As well, as Russia's reserves which could increase by another 280 Billion barrels." So, what you seem to be saying is that you believe the Saudis, who never allow any external verification of their wells rather than anyone else's assessment. Why is that? As Matt Simmons has said may, many times, what we need is reliable verifiable data, so I reckon we can both agree on that. And this 280 Billion Russian increase - isn't it a bit like your perpetual motion motion patent to which you refer? Perhaps the Russians might increase their reserves by 1,000 Billion barrels? Or maybe not? Do you only believe Russian BIG OIL figures? The articles are liberally sprinkled with "may" and "could".
What we know is that the USA lower 48 states peaked in 1971 and nothing has changed that - I assume we can both agree on that. Now you may think that they actually have billions of reserves hidden away somewhere and they are not using them for some reason so they've decided to drill in the ANWR and 3,000' of deep water as they like a bit of a challenge when they go to work. Is that the case or do you have some other explanation for the USA figures? On your answer I would imagine, hinges the entire debate because if all those aggregated wells in the USA peaked in 1971 then it could happen elsewhere, unless the USA has oil wells that behave differently from all others on the planet. If it can happen elsewhere, then where and when and how would you know? Where would you try to get your information from? What would be the consequences? These are the very questions to which those of us interested in PO are trying to find the answers.
Production at Cantarell, the world's second-largest oil complex, in the shallow gulf waters off the shore of Mexico's southern Campeche state, averaged just over 1.8 million barrels a day in May, according to the most recent government figures. That's a 7% drop from the first of the year and the lowest monthly output since July 2005, when Hurricane Emily forced the evacuation of thousands of oil workers from the region. Though analysts have long forecast the withering of this mature field, a rapid demise would pose serious challenges for the world's No. 5 oil producer. The oil field has supplied the bulk of Mexico's oil riches for the last quarter of a century, and petroleum revenue funds more than a third of federal spending. "Cantarell is going to fall a lot, and quickly," said independent consultant Guillermo Cruz Dominguez Vargas, a former executive with Mexico's state-owned oil monopoly, Petroleos Mexicanos, known as Pemex. "I can't imagine the strain on this society if there is nothing to replace it."
Have you any comment Mr Naybob, perhaps information which contradicts or explains this decline from a source other than the Mexican government?
Mexico, Russia & the Saudi's et al are just as "trustworthy" as BIG OIL.
I agree, independent reliable verifiable data is needed, good luck finding it.
Keep digging for those answers and lets keep the dialog going. More to come in the series.
Trust no one, the truth is out there.