Another Peak Oil Cufuffle - Epilogue
Regarding peak oil, enquiring Naybob reader Kirk comments: "You make, I believe, good points. On the other hand, I direct you to this chart which shows (using IEA and EIA numbers) that global oil production has been trending toward flatline for the past 18 months.
It may be a temporary aberration. It may be an artifact of plotting (13 month centered moving average, single recursion). Or it may be an indicator that for whatever reason oil production is no longer increasing
Kirk, thanks for your insightful comments and directing me to the data resource. We appreciate the dialog, even if we don't always agree. The whole purpose of this exercise is to inform and make each other think... on that note...
I looked at the data and agree with your initial assessment, production has hit a "flat line" for the last 18 months and who knows why?
1, Have we hit a malthusian impasse? (where efficiency gains can no longer be had through existing technologies.)
2. Is production being artifically manipulated?
3. Has a peak finally been reached?
In addition, what I observed in the "oildrum chart"; IEA charts and EIA numbers(both "impartial" agencies?? ) indicates that over the long haul (1970 til present), global oil "supply" or production has never been higher.
We have come full circle to the "malthusian" and "orwellian" aspect of the peak oil theory. The available industry and agency data bares witness to the following:
1. Improvement in production has been exponential,
2. The technology has never been better,
3. resulting in efficiency (yield) being at an all time high,
And most importantly, production and supply have never been higher.
Yet, it seems that "evil doers", greedy speculators, kleptocrats, rebels, despots and assorted other media "boogey man" factors have:
1. The "fear" premium at an all time high
2. resulting in market prices near all time inflation adjusted highs;
3. resulting in oil producing countries and companies recording record profits
And most importantly through MEDIA MANIPULATION, the public perception that the current "fear" factor is somehow justified and the ever present, ubiquitous "end times" and "peak" are "verily" at hand.
Does'nt the juxtaposition of this obvious dichotomy strike anyone as somewhat of an enigma? Or is it a crystal clear testimony to the axioms:
1. If you tell a big enough lie, enough times, people will believe it
2. There's a sucker born every minute
3. Always follow the money
Recommended reading: Peak Oil Redux Series
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part II
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part III
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part IV
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part V
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VI
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VII
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Epilogue
It may be a temporary aberration. It may be an artifact of plotting (13 month centered moving average, single recursion). Or it may be an indicator that for whatever reason oil production is no longer increasing
Kirk, thanks for your insightful comments and directing me to the data resource. We appreciate the dialog, even if we don't always agree. The whole purpose of this exercise is to inform and make each other think... on that note...
I looked at the data and agree with your initial assessment, production has hit a "flat line" for the last 18 months and who knows why?
1, Have we hit a malthusian impasse? (where efficiency gains can no longer be had through existing technologies.)
2. Is production being artifically manipulated?
3. Has a peak finally been reached?
In addition, what I observed in the "oildrum chart"; IEA charts and EIA numbers(both "impartial" agencies?? ) indicates that over the long haul (1970 til present), global oil "supply" or production has never been higher.
We have come full circle to the "malthusian" and "orwellian" aspect of the peak oil theory. The available industry and agency data bares witness to the following:
1. Improvement in production has been exponential,
2. The technology has never been better,
3. resulting in efficiency (yield) being at an all time high,
And most importantly, production and supply have never been higher.
Yet, it seems that "evil doers", greedy speculators, kleptocrats, rebels, despots and assorted other media "boogey man" factors have:
1. The "fear" premium at an all time high
2. resulting in market prices near all time inflation adjusted highs;
3. resulting in oil producing countries and companies recording record profits
And most importantly through MEDIA MANIPULATION, the public perception that the current "fear" factor is somehow justified and the ever present, ubiquitous "end times" and "peak" are "verily" at hand.
Does'nt the juxtaposition of this obvious dichotomy strike anyone as somewhat of an enigma? Or is it a crystal clear testimony to the axioms:
1. If you tell a big enough lie, enough times, people will believe it
2. There's a sucker born every minute
3. Always follow the money
Recommended reading: Peak Oil Redux Series
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part II
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part III
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part IV
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part V
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VI
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VII
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Epilogue
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