Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part II
Kilted Green a "peak oil" supporter and Nattering Naybob reader has some interesting comments regarding "Another Peak Oil Cufuffle". KG queries "why do you think there is so little possibility that the "peak oil" theory might be in the least bit true."
We respond... KG's comments in Italics
1. "If we were to follow your statement for a moment it would also surely be true that you then must have "no scientifically accepted empirical evidence to disprove this theory". But I digress."
Were it not for Aristarchus, Kepler, Galileo, Newton, Copernicus and Columbus... Generally accepted "scientific" thought held that the world was flat and Earth was the center of the solar system. We know better NOW, don't we?
One need not disprove what is unprovable to begin with (Hubbert's Peak Oil and the Big Bang Theory). The onus is on the promoters to prove it, which in Peak Oil's case, they can't.
All that PO promoters can say, backed by numbers provided by BIG OIL, is that oil production on a "per well" basis appears to be decreasing. More on this statistical connivance later.
I too can make wild claims such as the "peak oil" theory suggests. I have a machine that can control gravity and an engine that runs on tap water... Next...
2. "You say 'the "peak oil" promoters claim that the fields are tapped or near tapped... as a 'Peak Oil Promoter' I don't say that, and I've never hear of of my PO fellows say that either.
PO is about hitting the point of maximum global oil extraction. We can probably both agree that the world contains a finite amount of oil, unless you happen to be one of the fringe on a fringe believing in Abiotic oil."
A PO supporter calling the abiotic theory "on the fringe"? The Raven chides blackness, or that's the kettle calling the pot black, but this is beside the point.
Peak Oil promoters believe that oil is created from decaying organic matter near the earths surface and that there is a FINITE amount of it. Therefore there is a LIMITED supply and we will someday RUN OUT of it.
To wit, Hubbert's Peak Theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil field to the planet as a whole, the rate of oil production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve.
Early in the curve (pre-peak), production increases due to the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion.
Production declines due to RESOURCE DEPLETION is the key phrase. Promoters of the theory claimed a "peak" in 1989, 1995 and 2004. How many more peaks will we have??
I.e. The best estimates in 1942 indicated that the Kern River field in California had just 54 million barrels of remaining oil. By 1986, the field had produced 736 million barrels, and estimates put the remaining reserves at 970 million barrels.
Much like the Kern River field, I am still awaiting that big Kohoutek comet show, a Cubs, Indians or Giants World Series victory and the "end times" as well...
(Better be careful what we wish for, last two years BoSox and ChiSox, it that isn't a sign of end times or hell freezing over, I don't know what is...)
Bottom line, supporters of Hubberts' Peak Oil Theory posit that we have peaked or are about to peak and will RUN OUT of oil in an exponential fashion from the peak down.
Peak Oil is like telling a kid the boogey man is going to get him, when the boogey man never shows up, the kid finally stops being afraid.
Plain and simple. the contention of PO is nothing more than divisive fear mongering propaganda which causes public anxiety and unnecessary upwards price pressure.
Peak Oil is what the Bush administration is all about: control of popular opinion through fear. More to come in Part III
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part II
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part III
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part IV
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part V
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VI
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VII
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Epilogue
We respond... KG's comments in Italics
1. "If we were to follow your statement for a moment it would also surely be true that you then must have "no scientifically accepted empirical evidence to disprove this theory". But I digress."
Were it not for Aristarchus, Kepler, Galileo, Newton, Copernicus and Columbus... Generally accepted "scientific" thought held that the world was flat and Earth was the center of the solar system. We know better NOW, don't we?
One need not disprove what is unprovable to begin with (Hubbert's Peak Oil and the Big Bang Theory). The onus is on the promoters to prove it, which in Peak Oil's case, they can't.
All that PO promoters can say, backed by numbers provided by BIG OIL, is that oil production on a "per well" basis appears to be decreasing. More on this statistical connivance later.
I too can make wild claims such as the "peak oil" theory suggests. I have a machine that can control gravity and an engine that runs on tap water... Next...
2. "You say 'the "peak oil" promoters claim that the fields are tapped or near tapped... as a 'Peak Oil Promoter' I don't say that, and I've never hear of of my PO fellows say that either.
PO is about hitting the point of maximum global oil extraction. We can probably both agree that the world contains a finite amount of oil, unless you happen to be one of the fringe on a fringe believing in Abiotic oil."
A PO supporter calling the abiotic theory "on the fringe"? The Raven chides blackness, or that's the kettle calling the pot black, but this is beside the point.
Peak Oil promoters believe that oil is created from decaying organic matter near the earths surface and that there is a FINITE amount of it. Therefore there is a LIMITED supply and we will someday RUN OUT of it.
To wit, Hubbert's Peak Theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil field to the planet as a whole, the rate of oil production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve.
Early in the curve (pre-peak), production increases due to the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion.
Production declines due to RESOURCE DEPLETION is the key phrase. Promoters of the theory claimed a "peak" in 1989, 1995 and 2004. How many more peaks will we have??
I.e. The best estimates in 1942 indicated that the Kern River field in California had just 54 million barrels of remaining oil. By 1986, the field had produced 736 million barrels, and estimates put the remaining reserves at 970 million barrels.
Much like the Kern River field, I am still awaiting that big Kohoutek comet show, a Cubs, Indians or Giants World Series victory and the "end times" as well...
(Better be careful what we wish for, last two years BoSox and ChiSox, it that isn't a sign of end times or hell freezing over, I don't know what is...)
Bottom line, supporters of Hubberts' Peak Oil Theory posit that we have peaked or are about to peak and will RUN OUT of oil in an exponential fashion from the peak down.
Peak Oil is like telling a kid the boogey man is going to get him, when the boogey man never shows up, the kid finally stops being afraid.
Plain and simple. the contention of PO is nothing more than divisive fear mongering propaganda which causes public anxiety and unnecessary upwards price pressure.
Peak Oil is what the Bush administration is all about: control of popular opinion through fear. More to come in Part III
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part II
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part III
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part IV
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part V
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VI
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Part VII
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Epilogue
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