Economic Reports 12/15/06
Summary: CPI-U reflected large drops in energy & auto prices which were offset by rising housing & medical costs.
Median CPI is still rising and will continue to do so along with CPI-U, as pump & crude prices are on the rise again and the dollar gets debauched.
Private foreign interests were keeping rates lower. Foreign central banks selling more bonds than purchasing.
Durable manufacturing and housing declining. Automotive production runs prior to future layoffs, reduced future runs & closure boosted the number.
CPI Nov FLAT vs prior -0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Housing +0.4%, medical costs +0.2%, energy costs -0.2%, 3rd straight decline. Transportation -0.9%, new car prices -0.7%, airfares -4.8%, the biggest drop in seven years.
CPI-U RISING to flat after -0.5% declines in Sept & Oct. Median CPI +0.2%, in the last year +3.7%, largest YOY gain since early 02. In the last year, CPI +2%, Core CPI +2.6%.
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Oct $62.2B vs prior $57.8B Full Report
Inside the number: Who is buying the bulk? foreign official institutions purchases $25.3B, private foreign investors purchases $76.7B.
Why did rates go down? foreign bonds purchases jumped. Foreign official bond purchases +7.8B vs prior -7.9B; Private foreign bond purchases 18.5B vs prior 7.7B.
Who was driving rates down? Private investors, not central banks. Private net 69.1B vs prior 45.9B; Official net -6.9B vs prior 11.9B.
With a net negative number, it appears that at the moment, foreign central banks are selling more of our bonds, than they are buying.
Industrial Production Nov +0.2% vs prior FLAT Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Nov unchanged 81.8% vs prior 81.8%. Oct revised down to FLAT at 81.8%
Downward revision was in response to weaker incoming data for durable manufacturing. Durable manufacturing and housing keep going away while more McJobs are being created.
Slowing housing? Construction supplies declined for a 4th consecutive month with the 3rd decline of 0.8% or greater and durable goods related to construction dropped 1%.
Manufacturing production +0.3% after two previous months of sharp declines and was significantly boosted by a increase in the production of motor vehicles and parts.
These are already committed production runs, lets see what this report looks like after completion of all layoffs, scaled back future runs and closure of the plants.
Median CPI is still rising and will continue to do so along with CPI-U, as pump & crude prices are on the rise again and the dollar gets debauched.
Private foreign interests were keeping rates lower. Foreign central banks selling more bonds than purchasing.
Durable manufacturing and housing declining. Automotive production runs prior to future layoffs, reduced future runs & closure boosted the number.
CPI Nov FLAT vs prior -0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Housing +0.4%, medical costs +0.2%, energy costs -0.2%, 3rd straight decline. Transportation -0.9%, new car prices -0.7%, airfares -4.8%, the biggest drop in seven years.
CPI-U RISING to flat after -0.5% declines in Sept & Oct. Median CPI +0.2%, in the last year +3.7%, largest YOY gain since early 02. In the last year, CPI +2%, Core CPI +2.6%.
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Oct $62.2B vs prior $57.8B Full Report
Inside the number: Who is buying the bulk? foreign official institutions purchases $25.3B, private foreign investors purchases $76.7B.
Why did rates go down? foreign bonds purchases jumped. Foreign official bond purchases +7.8B vs prior -7.9B; Private foreign bond purchases 18.5B vs prior 7.7B.
Who was driving rates down? Private investors, not central banks. Private net 69.1B vs prior 45.9B; Official net -6.9B vs prior 11.9B.
With a net negative number, it appears that at the moment, foreign central banks are selling more of our bonds, than they are buying.
Industrial Production Nov +0.2% vs prior FLAT Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Nov unchanged 81.8% vs prior 81.8%. Oct revised down to FLAT at 81.8%
Downward revision was in response to weaker incoming data for durable manufacturing. Durable manufacturing and housing keep going away while more McJobs are being created.
Slowing housing? Construction supplies declined for a 4th consecutive month with the 3rd decline of 0.8% or greater and durable goods related to construction dropped 1%.
Manufacturing production +0.3% after two previous months of sharp declines and was significantly boosted by a increase in the production of motor vehicles and parts.
These are already committed production runs, lets see what this report looks like after completion of all layoffs, scaled back future runs and closure of the plants.
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