AFC Wild Card Playoffs
KC@IND(-6.5): IND Total Off #3, Rush #18, Pass #2. Total Def #21, Rush #32, Pass #2. KC Total Off #16, Rush #9, Pass #22. Total Def #16, Rush #18, Pass #18.
Indy comes in 3-4 in their last 7, all 4 losses on the road, but they are a different team at home 8-0. KC comes in winning 2 straight and is 3-5 on the road.
KC 7-2 ATS vs team with winning record, but KC 3-9 ATS after 2+ wins. IND 3-7 ATS last 10 playoff games, but KC 1-8 ATS last 9 playoff games.
Chefs #2 NFL rusher Larry Johnson 1789 yds. KC avg 134 ypg rushing, Colts #32 rush D which allowed 173 rush ypg!
One would think this is a no brainer... KC runs and controls the ball, creating a low scoring game and keeping Manning off the field.
However, on the road KC avg only 106 ypg rushing and allowing 41 sacks. IND has been very efficient in the red zone 85% in their last 3 at home, while KC is hitting 50%.
Last 3 Home & Away Key: KC D allows 175 ypg or 5.8 yd per carry, IND rushing for 155 ypg or 4.6 ypc. KC rushing 121 ypg or 4 ypc, IND D allows 144 ypg or 5.3 ypc.
In plain English, in their last 3 home games the Colts are running and defending the run better than the Chefs are in their last 3 road games.
Due to KC's weak defense, Indy should be able to run and pass at will. If KC's running game bogs down or they fall behind early, it could get ugly and quick.
Even if KC runs for 150+ yds, they still have to play a perfect game and hope for some Colt mistakes. Which is unlikely as the Colts have allowed a league low 15 sacks resulting in only 9 ints.
Our Pick: IND to WIN and cover -6.5
NYJ@NE(-8.5): NE Total Off #11, Rush #12, Pass #12. Total Def #6, Rush #5, Pass #12. NYJ Total Off #25, Rush #20, Pass #17. Total Def #20, Rush #24, Pass #14.
NE road 7-1; home 5-3. NYJ road 6-2. 8 weeks ago, NYJ 17 @ NE 14, since NYJ 5-2, NE 6-1.
NE 10-5-2 ATS in playoffs. Road team in last 18 NE-NYJ meetings is 14-3-1 ATS. NE Starting safety Harrison out after returning for 2 games.
NYJ road 6-2 ATS, 7-4 ATS as underdog, however, 2-7 ATS vs team with winning record, 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS vs NE.
Last 3 Home & Away Key: Pats red zone D a decent 37.5%, Jets offensive red zone efficiency only 38.5%. Jets red zone D a stout 20%, Pats red zone effic. 50%.
Key: Pats rushing for anemic 2.8 ypc, Jets #24 rush D allowing 5.4 ypc. Pats should be able to run, opening up the passing game for Brady and chewing up the clock.
Key: Since 2001, in the same year, when facing a team starting the same QB, that they lost to the last time, the Patriots are 15-1.
The Pats have been weak at home this year. But, its a real bitch to beat Belichik & Brady back to back, especially in their house. Bad weather and good red zone D's could make for a low score.
Despite the earlier 17-14 home loss, we feel this is the playoffs or money time, where the Pats usually excel and the Jets are virgins.
In addtion, the Jets strength of victory is a lowly .400, having beaten only one team with a winning record this year, the Pats.
Our pick: NE to WIN and cover -8.5
Indy comes in 3-4 in their last 7, all 4 losses on the road, but they are a different team at home 8-0. KC comes in winning 2 straight and is 3-5 on the road.
KC 7-2 ATS vs team with winning record, but KC 3-9 ATS after 2+ wins. IND 3-7 ATS last 10 playoff games, but KC 1-8 ATS last 9 playoff games.
Chefs #2 NFL rusher Larry Johnson 1789 yds. KC avg 134 ypg rushing, Colts #32 rush D which allowed 173 rush ypg!
One would think this is a no brainer... KC runs and controls the ball, creating a low scoring game and keeping Manning off the field.
However, on the road KC avg only 106 ypg rushing and allowing 41 sacks. IND has been very efficient in the red zone 85% in their last 3 at home, while KC is hitting 50%.
Last 3 Home & Away Key: KC D allows 175 ypg or 5.8 yd per carry, IND rushing for 155 ypg or 4.6 ypc. KC rushing 121 ypg or 4 ypc, IND D allows 144 ypg or 5.3 ypc.
In plain English, in their last 3 home games the Colts are running and defending the run better than the Chefs are in their last 3 road games.
Due to KC's weak defense, Indy should be able to run and pass at will. If KC's running game bogs down or they fall behind early, it could get ugly and quick.
Even if KC runs for 150+ yds, they still have to play a perfect game and hope for some Colt mistakes. Which is unlikely as the Colts have allowed a league low 15 sacks resulting in only 9 ints.
Our Pick: IND to WIN and cover -6.5
NYJ@NE(-8.5): NE Total Off #11, Rush #12, Pass #12. Total Def #6, Rush #5, Pass #12. NYJ Total Off #25, Rush #20, Pass #17. Total Def #20, Rush #24, Pass #14.
NE road 7-1; home 5-3. NYJ road 6-2. 8 weeks ago, NYJ 17 @ NE 14, since NYJ 5-2, NE 6-1.
NE 10-5-2 ATS in playoffs. Road team in last 18 NE-NYJ meetings is 14-3-1 ATS. NE Starting safety Harrison out after returning for 2 games.
NYJ road 6-2 ATS, 7-4 ATS as underdog, however, 2-7 ATS vs team with winning record, 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS vs NE.
Last 3 Home & Away Key: Pats red zone D a decent 37.5%, Jets offensive red zone efficiency only 38.5%. Jets red zone D a stout 20%, Pats red zone effic. 50%.
Key: Pats rushing for anemic 2.8 ypc, Jets #24 rush D allowing 5.4 ypc. Pats should be able to run, opening up the passing game for Brady and chewing up the clock.
Key: Since 2001, in the same year, when facing a team starting the same QB, that they lost to the last time, the Patriots are 15-1.
The Pats have been weak at home this year. But, its a real bitch to beat Belichik & Brady back to back, especially in their house. Bad weather and good red zone D's could make for a low score.
Despite the earlier 17-14 home loss, we feel this is the playoffs or money time, where the Pats usually excel and the Jets are virgins.
In addtion, the Jets strength of victory is a lowly .400, having beaten only one team with a winning record this year, the Pats.
Our pick: NE to WIN and cover -8.5
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