Market Observations 01/05/07

After a drunken Santa & New Year rally, the market is looking for equilibrium. A touch at SP500 1429, then rapid fall to 1406, with todays close at 1409. A pullback and healthy consolidation on lower to average volume.

The market is suddenly worried about the dwindling economy and future profit growth. For the moment, bonds and the $ are rallying, gold, commodities & oil are getting shelled.

The CRB has broken long term trend support at 300 to the downside with authority, that is a large red waving flag with regard to future economic demand.

With quarterly reporting season beginning next week, this does not bode well for anyone giving lowered forward guidance.

Should we see a rapid fall and close below SP500 1405, time to get out the Bermuda shorts for at least 5 weeks. 1387, 1375, 1360 & all the way back to 1290 await.

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