Economic Reports 02/01/07
In our top story tonight, Molly Ivins, the political columnist who dubbed Dubya as "Shrub" is dead. Breast cancer took Ms Ivins at 62. Her pungent and erudite commentary will be sorely missed. RIP.
Summary: Homes under contract for sale increasing seasonally adjusted, unadjusted dropping 21%.
Initial jobless cliams dropping, continuing claims rising 11% YOY. Upcoming manufacturing and construction layoffs will bring further increases in unemployment.
Despite lower crude oil costs and the holiday spending spree... personal spending decelerated and continues to outstrip personal income. Resulting in the lowest personal savings rate since 1933.
ISM Manufacturing sinking below 50 for the 2nd month in the last 3, indicating contraction throughout the manufacturing supply and sales chain. Auto and truck sales, one word, plunging.
Pending Home Sales Dec +4.9% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: the largest seasonally adjusted gain in 3 years, but YOY down 4.4%. Without seasonal adjustments, pending home sales decreased -20.8% last month and YOY -7.6%.
Initial Claims 01/27 -20K to 307K Full Report
Inside the number: Initial claims YOY +8%, while continuing claims YOY +11%.
4 week MA -4.5K , to an 11-month low of 304,750. Continuing claims +71K to 2.55M, 4 week MA +30.5K to 2.48M.
Personal Spending Dec +0.3% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: PCE deflator (from bureau of disinformation) only up +0.1%, YOY +2.2%, spin doctors say inflation is "tame".
In the real world, +0.9% gain in prices of nondurable goods, translates to roughly 11% annual. In Q4 real spending +4.4% annual rate.
Is this greater demand or higher prices being reflected? Partial answer: Real disposable income +0.2% vs prior +0.3%. In nominal terms, incomes +0.5%, while spending +0.7%.
With real spending rising faster than real disposable incomes, the personal savings rate fell to negative 1.2%. For all of 2006, the savings rate was negative 1%, the lowest annual savings rate since 1933.
ISM Index Jan 49.3 vs prior 51.4 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders fell to 50.3% vs 51.9%; production fell to 49.6 vs 52.4; employment up to 49.5% vs 49.4%; prices rose to 53.0% vs 47.5%.
Indicative of a slowing throughout the supply chain: Backlogs fell to 43.5 vs 45, while manufacturer inventories fell to 39.9 vs 48.5, as customer inventories rose to 52 vs 50.5.
Auto and Truck Sales Jan
Ford auto sales plunging 18%, Ford handed in a $5.8B quarterly loss, bringing the total for 2006 to $12.7M, the worst year in Ford's history. GM auto sales plunging 16.4%. Good news? Chrysler +1%.
Summary: Homes under contract for sale increasing seasonally adjusted, unadjusted dropping 21%.
Initial jobless cliams dropping, continuing claims rising 11% YOY. Upcoming manufacturing and construction layoffs will bring further increases in unemployment.
Despite lower crude oil costs and the holiday spending spree... personal spending decelerated and continues to outstrip personal income. Resulting in the lowest personal savings rate since 1933.
ISM Manufacturing sinking below 50 for the 2nd month in the last 3, indicating contraction throughout the manufacturing supply and sales chain. Auto and truck sales, one word, plunging.
Pending Home Sales Dec +4.9% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: the largest seasonally adjusted gain in 3 years, but YOY down 4.4%. Without seasonal adjustments, pending home sales decreased -20.8% last month and YOY -7.6%.
Initial Claims 01/27 -20K to 307K Full Report
Inside the number: Initial claims YOY +8%, while continuing claims YOY +11%.
4 week MA -4.5K , to an 11-month low of 304,750. Continuing claims +71K to 2.55M, 4 week MA +30.5K to 2.48M.
Personal Spending Dec +0.3% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: PCE deflator (from bureau of disinformation) only up +0.1%, YOY +2.2%, spin doctors say inflation is "tame".
In the real world, +0.9% gain in prices of nondurable goods, translates to roughly 11% annual. In Q4 real spending +4.4% annual rate.
Is this greater demand or higher prices being reflected? Partial answer: Real disposable income +0.2% vs prior +0.3%. In nominal terms, incomes +0.5%, while spending +0.7%.
With real spending rising faster than real disposable incomes, the personal savings rate fell to negative 1.2%. For all of 2006, the savings rate was negative 1%, the lowest annual savings rate since 1933.
ISM Index Jan 49.3 vs prior 51.4 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders fell to 50.3% vs 51.9%; production fell to 49.6 vs 52.4; employment up to 49.5% vs 49.4%; prices rose to 53.0% vs 47.5%.
Indicative of a slowing throughout the supply chain: Backlogs fell to 43.5 vs 45, while manufacturer inventories fell to 39.9 vs 48.5, as customer inventories rose to 52 vs 50.5.
Auto and Truck Sales Jan
Ford auto sales plunging 18%, Ford handed in a $5.8B quarterly loss, bringing the total for 2006 to $12.7M, the worst year in Ford's history. GM auto sales plunging 16.4%. Good news? Chrysler +1%.
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