Economic Reports 02/02/07
Summary: Mich Sentiment-Rev. declining Jan 96.9 vs prior 98.0, ho hum.
Non farm payrolls a small seasonally adjusted increase masked carnage in the job market.
Factory orders a seasonally adjusted increase, but under the sheets a marked decline since Oct.
Nonfarm Payrolls Jan +111K vs prior +167K Full Report
Inside the number: Dec revised up +206K, Nov revised up +196K , for a net gain of 81K new jobs.
Unemployment Rate seasonally adjusted Jan 4.6% vs prior 4.5%, however, unadjusted Jan 5.0% vs prior 4.3%. Pay attention to Establishment Data Table B-1!!
Construction jobs seasonally adjusted +22K in Jan and +10K in Dec, the media spin doctors said "due to unseasonably warm weather which kept layoffs down".
The truth be told... unadjusted construction Dec -195K , Jan -295K for losses of 490K! Manufacturing Jan adjusted -16K, Jan unadjusted -149K.
Unadjusted: Durable goods -106K, non durable goods -43K, service providing -2.359M, retail -669K. Job growth slowed in health care, education, business services, finance and hospitality.
Factory Orders Dec + 2.4% vs prior +1.2% Press Report
Inside the number: These are SEASONALLY ADJUSTED numbers...
Media spin doctors: "The 3rd increase in 4 months", Nov revised higher from +0.9% to 1.2%. Shipments +1.4%, Unfilled orders +2.1%, Inventories +0.1%.
Durable goods +2.9%, non durable goods +1.8%, core capital goods orders +3.1%.
Defense capital goods orders -30%, ex defense factory orders +3.1%, ex transportation factory orders +2.2%.
It all sounds so nice, one problem, unadjusted numbers show a much different trend.... click here.
Since Oct. factory orders -3%, ex transportation -3.5%, durable goods -1.6%, non durable goods -4.5%. Lets see how "seasonal" this trend is come March.
Non farm payrolls a small seasonally adjusted increase masked carnage in the job market.
Factory orders a seasonally adjusted increase, but under the sheets a marked decline since Oct.
Nonfarm Payrolls Jan +111K vs prior +167K Full Report
Inside the number: Dec revised up +206K, Nov revised up +196K , for a net gain of 81K new jobs.
Unemployment Rate seasonally adjusted Jan 4.6% vs prior 4.5%, however, unadjusted Jan 5.0% vs prior 4.3%. Pay attention to Establishment Data Table B-1!!
Construction jobs seasonally adjusted +22K in Jan and +10K in Dec, the media spin doctors said "due to unseasonably warm weather which kept layoffs down".
The truth be told... unadjusted construction Dec -195K , Jan -295K for losses of 490K! Manufacturing Jan adjusted -16K, Jan unadjusted -149K.
Unadjusted: Durable goods -106K, non durable goods -43K, service providing -2.359M, retail -669K. Job growth slowed in health care, education, business services, finance and hospitality.
Factory Orders Dec + 2.4% vs prior +1.2% Press Report
Inside the number: These are SEASONALLY ADJUSTED numbers...
Media spin doctors: "The 3rd increase in 4 months", Nov revised higher from +0.9% to 1.2%. Shipments +1.4%, Unfilled orders +2.1%, Inventories +0.1%.
Durable goods +2.9%, non durable goods +1.8%, core capital goods orders +3.1%.
Defense capital goods orders -30%, ex defense factory orders +3.1%, ex transportation factory orders +2.2%.
It all sounds so nice, one problem, unadjusted numbers show a much different trend.... click here.
Since Oct. factory orders -3%, ex transportation -3.5%, durable goods -1.6%, non durable goods -4.5%. Lets see how "seasonal" this trend is come March.
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