Economic Reports 03/06/07
Summary: Oh, Canada.. holding their rate and breath... much like us, reliant on the consumer to keep spending or else...
Pending home sales a seasonally adjusted decrease, an unadjusted increase, the NAR blames the weather and perhaps Canada as well...
Factory Orders plunging while productivity has hit a wall and flipped over. Our cannabalized non durable economic base struggles to tread water.
The Bank Of Canada holding its key interest rate steady at 4.25%.
Growth in the American economy could be lower than expected, the bank warned, but at the same time household spending in Canada could be stronger than expected, largely because of borrowing against increased home equity.
Pending Home Sales Index 108.7 vs prior 113.3 Full Report
Inside the number: -4.1% vs prior +4.5%; -8.9% YOY. Press release
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, “We are seeing temporary near term weather disruptions in much of the country, but there is an underlying pattern of stabilization in the housing market,”
“As a result of these weather disruptions, it may take a couple months for the picture to fully clarify, but a modest recovery is likely. Housing remains a great long term investment.”
Weather disruptions, underlying stabilization and a modest recovery is likely... I guess the "bad weather" caused a unadjusted 26.9% increase in pending sales... Right, got it, thanks...
Factory Orders Jan -5.6% vs prior +2.4% Full Report
Inside the number: -5.6% the largest decline since July 2000, A 60% plunge in orders for new civilian aircraft led the decline.
Ex transportation, orders -2.9%. Ex defense, orders -5.5%, the biggest decline since the beginning of the data in 1992.
Transportation orders -19%, motor vehicle orders -6.7%, Computer and electronics -9.5%. Machinery orders -9.9%, petroleum orders -9.2%, and a 41% drop in construction equipment orders.
Orders for core capital equipment -6.3%, the biggest decline in three years. Shipments of core capital equipment -2.8%. Durable goods -8.7%, nondurable goods -2%, shipments -1.2%
A weakened manufacturing sector has raised concerns about the durability of the economy.
With housing investment still falling sharply, and weak business capital spending, it has been left to the consumer to hold up the economy.
Productivity-Rev. Q4 +1.6% vs prior est +3.0% Full Report
Inside the number: Productivity +1.6% in the past year, the lowest annual growth rate since 1997.
Productivity has slowed every year since peaking at a 4.1% annual rate in 2002.
Thus, unit labor costs +6.6% in the quarter and +3.2% in the past year, the fastest pace since 2000.
We have banged on this drum many a time... we have hit a technological or "Malthusian" impasse where further gains in productivity from the existing technology base and labor at the margin are minimal.
Either prices continue to rise or profit margins will continue to erode.
Pending home sales a seasonally adjusted decrease, an unadjusted increase, the NAR blames the weather and perhaps Canada as well...
Factory Orders plunging while productivity has hit a wall and flipped over. Our cannabalized non durable economic base struggles to tread water.
The Bank Of Canada holding its key interest rate steady at 4.25%.
Growth in the American economy could be lower than expected, the bank warned, but at the same time household spending in Canada could be stronger than expected, largely because of borrowing against increased home equity.
Pending Home Sales Index 108.7 vs prior 113.3 Full Report
Inside the number: -4.1% vs prior +4.5%; -8.9% YOY. Press release
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, “We are seeing temporary near term weather disruptions in much of the country, but there is an underlying pattern of stabilization in the housing market,”
“As a result of these weather disruptions, it may take a couple months for the picture to fully clarify, but a modest recovery is likely. Housing remains a great long term investment.”
Weather disruptions, underlying stabilization and a modest recovery is likely... I guess the "bad weather" caused a unadjusted 26.9% increase in pending sales... Right, got it, thanks...
Factory Orders Jan -5.6% vs prior +2.4% Full Report
Inside the number: -5.6% the largest decline since July 2000, A 60% plunge in orders for new civilian aircraft led the decline.
Ex transportation, orders -2.9%. Ex defense, orders -5.5%, the biggest decline since the beginning of the data in 1992.
Transportation orders -19%, motor vehicle orders -6.7%, Computer and electronics -9.5%. Machinery orders -9.9%, petroleum orders -9.2%, and a 41% drop in construction equipment orders.
Orders for core capital equipment -6.3%, the biggest decline in three years. Shipments of core capital equipment -2.8%. Durable goods -8.7%, nondurable goods -2%, shipments -1.2%
A weakened manufacturing sector has raised concerns about the durability of the economy.
With housing investment still falling sharply, and weak business capital spending, it has been left to the consumer to hold up the economy.
Productivity-Rev. Q4 +1.6% vs prior est +3.0% Full Report
Inside the number: Productivity +1.6% in the past year, the lowest annual growth rate since 1997.
Productivity has slowed every year since peaking at a 4.1% annual rate in 2002.
Thus, unit labor costs +6.6% in the quarter and +3.2% in the past year, the fastest pace since 2000.
We have banged on this drum many a time... we have hit a technological or "Malthusian" impasse where further gains in productivity from the existing technology base and labor at the margin are minimal.
Either prices continue to rise or profit margins will continue to erode.
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