Market Soapbox & Observations Week Ending 03/09/07
MON, broadbased down day, collapsing into the close DJIA -64 on average volume with ugly internals. All DOWN. Bonds down 10 yr 4.51, $ up vs 1.3094E & down vs 115.88Y, WTI crude down 2.7% $59.98, gold down $638.50.
TUE, "oversold" bounce, DJIA +157 on average volume with pretty internals. All UP BIG. Bonds down 10 yr 4.52, $ up BIG vs 116.525y & down vs 1.3128E, WTI crude up 1% $60.67, gold up 1.5% $648.80.
WEN, a wavy day, DJIA -15 on average volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept, DJTA, MID. Bonds up 10yr yield -3 bps 4.49, $ down vs 116.055y & vs 1.3177E, WTI crude up 2% $61.92, gold up 1% $652.30
THU, broadbased followthrough on TUES surge, DJIA +68 on lower volume and nice internals. All UP. Bonds down 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.51, $ up vs 117.08y & vs 1.3132E, gold up $653, WTI crude down $61.55.
FRI, wavy gravy, DJIA +16 on lower volume with midlin internals. All FLAT or UP cept XAU, NDX. Bonds down 10 yr yield +8 bps 4.59, $ up vs 118.155y & vs 1.3114E, gold down 1% $649.5, WTI crude down 2.5% $60.03
This week, DJIA +162, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1648. Dollar up vs. Euro 1.3114 & up vs. Yen 118.155, XAU down 132.25 & gold up $649.5, XOI up 1155.86 & WTI crude down $60.03, CRB commodities index down 308.06
YIELD CURVE INVERTED: This week bonds down with the 10 yr yield rising 8bps. 30 yr @ 4.72%; 10 yr @ 4.59; 5 yr @ 4.54; 2yr @ 4.66; 6 mo @ 5.13.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ? 2 yr above 30yr 11/03 - 03/01
Resistance: DJIA 12300; SP500 1410; NAZ 2400; NDX 1760
Support: DJIA 12150; SP500 1400; NAZ 2375; NDX 1740
Dollar index rising from 83.75 to 84.25 as the yen got punked, crude falling to $60.
Gold rising from $646 to $650, as bonds got slapped raising the 10 yr 10 bps in 2 days to 4.59, Volatility falling from 16 to 14 as volume tailed off.
Fed Governor Bies says sub prime problem may be just starting; no kidding...
New Century Financial stops accepting loan apps, analysts say bankruptcy protection imminent... do ya think??
Homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) swinging to a wider than expected loss in Q1, cutting its full year guidance and saying it is not yet confident that the housing slowdown has bottomed...
News flash, its just the bottom of the 1st leg of 3 down... the worst is yet to come as the recession takes hold and layoffs continue... bonds and commodities got punked today...
Yesterday: "Something nasty can come out either now or perhaps after this bounce continues to 1425-1428. This could play out with a Friday sell off dropping to 1395 - 1397."
Today a drop to 1397 and then sideways. Next week, short covering on options expiration should get a rise to SP500 1417 - 1428 range.
A BK announcement could pull the rug out from under this "oversold" bounce and start an avalanche.
Refer to yesterdays commentary for details... and keep your eyes peeled to the sky because it could be a name brand...
TUE, "oversold" bounce, DJIA +157 on average volume with pretty internals. All UP BIG. Bonds down 10 yr 4.52, $ up BIG vs 116.525y & down vs 1.3128E, WTI crude up 1% $60.67, gold up 1.5% $648.80.
WEN, a wavy day, DJIA -15 on average volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept, DJTA, MID. Bonds up 10yr yield -3 bps 4.49, $ down vs 116.055y & vs 1.3177E, WTI crude up 2% $61.92, gold up 1% $652.30
THU, broadbased followthrough on TUES surge, DJIA +68 on lower volume and nice internals. All UP. Bonds down 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.51, $ up vs 117.08y & vs 1.3132E, gold up $653, WTI crude down $61.55.
FRI, wavy gravy, DJIA +16 on lower volume with midlin internals. All FLAT or UP cept XAU, NDX. Bonds down 10 yr yield +8 bps 4.59, $ up vs 118.155y & vs 1.3114E, gold down 1% $649.5, WTI crude down 2.5% $60.03
This week, DJIA +162, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1648. Dollar up vs. Euro 1.3114 & up vs. Yen 118.155, XAU down 132.25 & gold up $649.5, XOI up 1155.86 & WTI crude down $60.03, CRB commodities index down 308.06
YIELD CURVE INVERTED: This week bonds down with the 10 yr yield rising 8bps. 30 yr @ 4.72%; 10 yr @ 4.59; 5 yr @ 4.54; 2yr @ 4.66; 6 mo @ 5.13.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ? 2 yr above 30yr 11/03 - 03/01
Resistance: DJIA 12300; SP500 1410; NAZ 2400; NDX 1760
Support: DJIA 12150; SP500 1400; NAZ 2375; NDX 1740
Dollar index rising from 83.75 to 84.25 as the yen got punked, crude falling to $60.
Gold rising from $646 to $650, as bonds got slapped raising the 10 yr 10 bps in 2 days to 4.59, Volatility falling from 16 to 14 as volume tailed off.
Fed Governor Bies says sub prime problem may be just starting; no kidding...
New Century Financial stops accepting loan apps, analysts say bankruptcy protection imminent... do ya think??
Homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) swinging to a wider than expected loss in Q1, cutting its full year guidance and saying it is not yet confident that the housing slowdown has bottomed...
News flash, its just the bottom of the 1st leg of 3 down... the worst is yet to come as the recession takes hold and layoffs continue... bonds and commodities got punked today...
Yesterday: "Something nasty can come out either now or perhaps after this bounce continues to 1425-1428. This could play out with a Friday sell off dropping to 1395 - 1397."
Today a drop to 1397 and then sideways. Next week, short covering on options expiration should get a rise to SP500 1417 - 1428 range.
A BK announcement could pull the rug out from under this "oversold" bounce and start an avalanche.
Refer to yesterdays commentary for details... and keep your eyes peeled to the sky because it could be a name brand...
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