Economic Reports 04/16/07
Summary: Another busy day as cheeky media spinsters served up pablum for the masses...
Retail sales strong; NY manufacturing improving; Foreign capital inflows up and Business inventories down... NOT!!!
The Nattering One delivers the sobering TRUTH for enquiring Naybob's... who CAN unlike the masses, handle the TRUTH...
Retail sales NOT up on higher volumes... up on INFLATION, especially gasoline... Ny manufacturing sluggish with twindling margins, bulging inventories and reduced capital spending...
TIC foreign inflows up, but bond sales WAY DOWN, clearly explaining why bond yields and interest rates have jumped... Inventories clearly outstriping sales and expanding...
and NAHB housing index falling as expectations fall along with 07 & 08 production and sales estimates.
Retail Sales Mar +0.7% vs prior +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Retail Sales ex-auto Mar +0.8% vs prior -0.1%; ex gasoline +0.4%.
Electronics and appliance stores fell 1.9%, the biggest decline in more than a year, a 0.2% drop at department stores.
Nonstore retailers, such as catalogs and online stores, plunged 3.3%, the biggest drop since September 2001.
Retail sales account for about 50% of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for about 66% of final demand in the economy.
While the 0.7% gain in nominal (current dollar) and ex gasoline +0.4% sales looked strong, most of the increase was due to raging stagflation in the supply chain.
NY Empire State Index Apr +3.8 vs prior +1.9 Full Report
Inside the number: a slow increase after a 20 point plunge to its lowest level in 2 years. New orders up to 3.9 from 3.1; however...
conditions worsening... shipments fell sharply to 8.7 from 18.5; employment falling from 11.4 to 5.4; unfilled orders sinking further to -8.3 from -8.1...
margins twindling... prices paid rising to 40.5 from 30.2; prices received declining from 10.5 to 7.1.
cap ex spending waving bye-bye... falling from 32.5 to 27.3; technology spending falling from 17.4 to 14.2.
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Feb +$94.5B vs prior +$79.6B Full Report
Inside the number: Bad news... bond yields and interest rates jumped on a major decline in a key gauge of foreign demand for our bonds.
Net foreign purchases of U.S. long-term securities including stocks and bonds, fell to $58.1 billion in February from $98.8 billion in January.
Perhaps foreign investors are losing their taste for our bonds?? Overall private foreign net purchases dropped from $104.5 billion to $65.3 billion.
Private foreign net government bond purchases were negative (or sold) -$2.2 billion after buying +$20 billion in January.
Public foreign net governement bond purchases shrunk to +$4.2 billion after buying +$15.8 billion in January.
Business Inventories Feb +0.3% vs prior +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: inventories increased +0.3%, but sales increased +0.4% mainly on stockpile reductions at car lots.
In the past year, inventories +5.9% outstripping sales +2.9%. More bad news, manufacturers still screeching to a halt as sales plunged -0.5%.
Good news? retail sales +0.6%; however... if we remove the cars they are giving away.... ex auto inventories +0.8%, outstripping ex auto retail sales +0.6%.
WF/NAHB Housing Market Index 33 vs prior 36 Full Report and Press Release
Inside the number: Builder pessimism is building again... no pun intended, at its lowest since December and 2 points above the all time low of 31 in Oct.
"The tightening of mortgage lending standards in connection with the subprime crisis has shaken the confidence of both consumers and builders, as reflected in this report...
the unfolding effects of this crisis have compelled NAHB to trim our forecasts of home sales and housing production for both 2007 and 2008...
While we still expect to see some improvements in housing market activity beginning later this year, the downside risks and uncertainties surrounding that forecast are considerable.”
Retail sales strong; NY manufacturing improving; Foreign capital inflows up and Business inventories down... NOT!!!
The Nattering One delivers the sobering TRUTH for enquiring Naybob's... who CAN unlike the masses, handle the TRUTH...
Retail sales NOT up on higher volumes... up on INFLATION, especially gasoline... Ny manufacturing sluggish with twindling margins, bulging inventories and reduced capital spending...
TIC foreign inflows up, but bond sales WAY DOWN, clearly explaining why bond yields and interest rates have jumped... Inventories clearly outstriping sales and expanding...
and NAHB housing index falling as expectations fall along with 07 & 08 production and sales estimates.
Retail Sales Mar +0.7% vs prior +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Retail Sales ex-auto Mar +0.8% vs prior -0.1%; ex gasoline +0.4%.
Electronics and appliance stores fell 1.9%, the biggest decline in more than a year, a 0.2% drop at department stores.
Nonstore retailers, such as catalogs and online stores, plunged 3.3%, the biggest drop since September 2001.
Retail sales account for about 50% of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for about 66% of final demand in the economy.
While the 0.7% gain in nominal (current dollar) and ex gasoline +0.4% sales looked strong, most of the increase was due to raging stagflation in the supply chain.
NY Empire State Index Apr +3.8 vs prior +1.9 Full Report
Inside the number: a slow increase after a 20 point plunge to its lowest level in 2 years. New orders up to 3.9 from 3.1; however...
conditions worsening... shipments fell sharply to 8.7 from 18.5; employment falling from 11.4 to 5.4; unfilled orders sinking further to -8.3 from -8.1...
margins twindling... prices paid rising to 40.5 from 30.2; prices received declining from 10.5 to 7.1.
cap ex spending waving bye-bye... falling from 32.5 to 27.3; technology spending falling from 17.4 to 14.2.
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Feb +$94.5B vs prior +$79.6B Full Report
Inside the number: Bad news... bond yields and interest rates jumped on a major decline in a key gauge of foreign demand for our bonds.
Net foreign purchases of U.S. long-term securities including stocks and bonds, fell to $58.1 billion in February from $98.8 billion in January.
Perhaps foreign investors are losing their taste for our bonds?? Overall private foreign net purchases dropped from $104.5 billion to $65.3 billion.
Private foreign net government bond purchases were negative (or sold) -$2.2 billion after buying +$20 billion in January.
Public foreign net governement bond purchases shrunk to +$4.2 billion after buying +$15.8 billion in January.
Business Inventories Feb +0.3% vs prior +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: inventories increased +0.3%, but sales increased +0.4% mainly on stockpile reductions at car lots.
In the past year, inventories +5.9% outstripping sales +2.9%. More bad news, manufacturers still screeching to a halt as sales plunged -0.5%.
Good news? retail sales +0.6%; however... if we remove the cars they are giving away.... ex auto inventories +0.8%, outstripping ex auto retail sales +0.6%.
WF/NAHB Housing Market Index 33 vs prior 36 Full Report and Press Release
Inside the number: Builder pessimism is building again... no pun intended, at its lowest since December and 2 points above the all time low of 31 in Oct.
"The tightening of mortgage lending standards in connection with the subprime crisis has shaken the confidence of both consumers and builders, as reflected in this report...
the unfolding effects of this crisis have compelled NAHB to trim our forecasts of home sales and housing production for both 2007 and 2008...
While we still expect to see some improvements in housing market activity beginning later this year, the downside risks and uncertainties surrounding that forecast are considerable.”
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