Economic Reports 04/19/07
Summary: Leading indicators point to mounting consumer & corporate debt, hyperliquidity and slower growth persisting this summer... The Nattering One disagrees on the "slow" growth, read on...
Philly Fed showing no growth and mounting cost pressures as margins disappear...
Initial claims pulling a "David Copperfield" act... slow growth is about to become negative growth... with a decimated economic base, McJobs continue to become harder to get...
and the housing sector dominoes are just starting to tumble BIG time into construction, trade, transportation, finance and service industries...
In the last 5 years, at least 40% of new jobs created were housing sector related, another 20% were service related and dependent on the existance of the housing jobs.
The Nattering One estimates at least 30% of new jobs created in the last 5 years will disappear in the next 24 to 36 months. The resulting global economic wreckage... (TBD) to be determined...
Initial Claims 04/14 -4K to 339K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +5.25K to 328.75K. Continuing claims +6K to 2.531M; 4 week MA +9K to 2.516M. Yoy initial claims +8%; continuing claims +3%.
33% of the 6.7 M officially unemployed people had been out of work longer than 15 weeks, while 18%, or 1.2 M, had been out of work longer than 27 weeks.
State Change State Supplied Comment
VA +1,015 automobile, transportation, manufacturing.
NV +1,123 No comment.
SC +1,128 manufacturing.
MA +1,199 No comment.
AR +1,439 No comment.
OH +1,628 No comment.
MS +1,681 No comment.
GA +1,698 finance.
NC +1,766 transportation equipment, electronic equipment, apparel, furniture.
MD +2,005 apparel and manufacturing.
AZ +2,097 No comment.
TX +2,167 trade, service, and manufacturing.
NJ +2,191 transportation, warehousing, service.
IL +2,243 trade and manufacturing.
WA +2,739 No comment.
WI +3,141 construction, trade, service, transportation, warehousing, manufacturing.
FL +3,617 construction, trade, service, manufacturing.
NY +3,842 transportation, service, manufacturing.
PA +7,834 construction, trade, service.
CA +8,644 Layoffs in the service industry.
Leading Indicators Mar +0.1% vs prior -0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: over the last 6 months the index has fallen 0.1% (0.9% since Jan 06).
Only 3 indicators have risen and weakness is becoming more widespread than strengths.
6 of the 10 leading indicators increased: jobless claims, factory hours, money supply, vendor performance, building permits and new orders for consumer goods.
4 indicators fell: stock prices, consumer expectations, the interest rate spread, and capital equipment orders.
Philadelphia Fed Apr +0.2 vs prior +0.2 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders up to 2.8 from 1.9; shipments down to 4.3 from 6.8; unfilled orders down to -13.7 from -20.9; capital expenditures down to 12.3 from 25.3.
Prices paid up for a 3rd straight month to 24.3 from 21.8; prices received down to 5.2 from 16.3.
Philly Fed showing no growth and mounting cost pressures as margins disappear...
Initial claims pulling a "David Copperfield" act... slow growth is about to become negative growth... with a decimated economic base, McJobs continue to become harder to get...
and the housing sector dominoes are just starting to tumble BIG time into construction, trade, transportation, finance and service industries...
In the last 5 years, at least 40% of new jobs created were housing sector related, another 20% were service related and dependent on the existance of the housing jobs.
The Nattering One estimates at least 30% of new jobs created in the last 5 years will disappear in the next 24 to 36 months. The resulting global economic wreckage... (TBD) to be determined...
Initial Claims 04/14 -4K to 339K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +5.25K to 328.75K. Continuing claims +6K to 2.531M; 4 week MA +9K to 2.516M. Yoy initial claims +8%; continuing claims +3%.
33% of the 6.7 M officially unemployed people had been out of work longer than 15 weeks, while 18%, or 1.2 M, had been out of work longer than 27 weeks.
State Change State Supplied Comment
VA +1,015 automobile, transportation, manufacturing.
NV +1,123 No comment.
SC +1,128 manufacturing.
MA +1,199 No comment.
AR +1,439 No comment.
OH +1,628 No comment.
MS +1,681 No comment.
GA +1,698 finance.
NC +1,766 transportation equipment, electronic equipment, apparel, furniture.
MD +2,005 apparel and manufacturing.
AZ +2,097 No comment.
TX +2,167 trade, service, and manufacturing.
NJ +2,191 transportation, warehousing, service.
IL +2,243 trade and manufacturing.
WA +2,739 No comment.
WI +3,141 construction, trade, service, transportation, warehousing, manufacturing.
FL +3,617 construction, trade, service, manufacturing.
NY +3,842 transportation, service, manufacturing.
PA +7,834 construction, trade, service.
CA +8,644 Layoffs in the service industry.
Leading Indicators Mar +0.1% vs prior -0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: over the last 6 months the index has fallen 0.1% (0.9% since Jan 06).
Only 3 indicators have risen and weakness is becoming more widespread than strengths.
6 of the 10 leading indicators increased: jobless claims, factory hours, money supply, vendor performance, building permits and new orders for consumer goods.
4 indicators fell: stock prices, consumer expectations, the interest rate spread, and capital equipment orders.
Philadelphia Fed Apr +0.2 vs prior +0.2 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders up to 2.8 from 1.9; shipments down to 4.3 from 6.8; unfilled orders down to -13.7 from -20.9; capital expenditures down to 12.3 from 25.3.
Prices paid up for a 3rd straight month to 24.3 from 21.8; prices received down to 5.2 from 16.3.
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